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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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CFS2 Weeklies. 

With the transition to spring, anomalies are getting more vanilla.  There is a predominate -nao or at least above normal heights in northeast Canada.  There is also an Aleutians Ridge which during winter wavelengths would be warmer.  The one week that strikes me as odd is week 3 as it has flow from California.  I guess it depends on which side of the boundary we set up more of the time, but I would go over with temps.

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-5F (0F)

Week 2...........0F (+5F)

Week 3...........-3F (+4F)

Week 4............-4F (+1F)

Week 5............0F (0F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.............0F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1............dry

Week 2...........normal

Week 3...........normal

Week 4...........wet

Week 5...........wet (TTidbits)

Week 6...........normal  (TTidbits)

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We now have ten weeks in the books and Euro Thursday still beating Euro Monday.  CFS2 Monday in last place for each week and also has the coldest cold bias weeks 2 thru 4:

Capture.JPG.79637ff535319233255e3d84f4fcf827.JPG

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week 1 -pna/-nao/-ao/neutral epo. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada

week 2 -epo/-nao/-pna/-ao. Below normal hgts, flow from northern MT

week 3 -epo/+nao/neutral ao/+pna. Below normal hgts, flow from PAC NW

week 4 neutral pna/+epo/-nao/-ao. Normal hgts, flow from OR

week 5 -nao/-ao/-epo/neutral pna. Normal hgts, flow from OR

week 6 -ao/-nao/+pna/+epo. Normal hgts, flow from northern cali

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If weeklies are right, expect a chilly and probably rainy april. Heck with that -nao signal maybe an outside shot at snow too. Sapril

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week 1 -6

week 2 -4

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

LOL

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On 3/12/2018 at 8:06 PM, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -6

week 2 -4

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

LOL

Either week 3 or week 4 if not both will be above normal. If it does not snow, week 2 could be in trouble too, at the least will be warmer than -4F.  The Euro has proven this cold season it can sniff out a warm week in a cold pattern as effectively as the Cleveland Browns can win football games.

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week 1 -epo/-ao/-nao/neutral pna. Below normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 2 -epo/+pna/-ao/+nao. Normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border

week 3 -epo/-ao/-nao/neutral pna. Below normal hgts, flow from PAC nw

week 4 -enao/+ao/neutral epo/neutral pna. Normal hgts, flow from OR

week 5 -epo/+ao/-nao/+pna. Normal hgts, flow from PAC nw

week 6 -ao/neutral epo/+nao/+pna. Normal hgts, flow from OR

 

week 1 -6

week 2 -2

week 3 -3

week 4 -1

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

Best spring ever!!!!

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Canadian Weeklies

Temps

Week 1.......Confidently below

Weeks 2 thru 4....near normal

 

Pcpn

Weeks 1, 2 & 4.......near normal

Week 3....................wet

 

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week 1 -pna/-epo/-ao/-nao. Below normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 2 -epo/neutral pna/-ao/-enao. Normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 3 +epo/+pna/-ao/-nao. Below normal hgts, flow from Canada

week 4 neutral ao/-enao/+pna/+epo. Below normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 5 +pna/neutral nao/ neutral ao/neutral epo. Abv normal hgts, flow from N cali

week 6 -ao/-enao/+pna/neutral epo. Abv normal hgts, flow from N cali

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week 1 -7

week 2 -4

week 3 -4

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 +1

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CFS2 Weeklies, I give up.

 

Weeks 4 & 5 look like they should be warmer than progged, but then again the week 4 & 5 progs are likely wrong at 500mb anyway

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-5F (0F)   (2nd week in a row CFS2 did this)

Week 2...........-3F (-3F)

Week 3...........-5F (-4F)

Week 4............-2F (0F)

Week 5............-1F (0F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.............0F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1............wet

Week 2...........wet

Week 3...........normal

Week 4...........normal

Week 5...........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6...........dry  (TTidbits)

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30 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

I am looking forward to the six weeks of negatives the EC weeklies will have tonight....

Sand traps full of snow drifts??? 

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8 minutes ago, Feb said:

Sand traps full of snow drifts??? 

Even better, casual "water", can't legally play out of them.

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22 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Even better, casual "water", can't legally play out of them.

HB no garden activity till mid june?

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week 1 neutral pna/neutral ao/-epo/-enao. Abv normal hgts, flow from AZ

week 2 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Below normal hgts, flow from US/canada border

week 3 neutral ao/+nao/+epo/+pna. Below normal hgts, flow from PAC nw

week 4 +ao/+nao/+epo/+pna. normal hgts, flow from pac nw

week 5 +ao /+nao/+epo/+pna.  normal hgts, flow from OR

week 6 -enao/+ao/+epo/neutral epo. Normal hgts, flow from N cali

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week 1 -5

week 2 -6

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

Just what Tony asked for. 

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If this is right for Sapril, my torch call for some point in April is gonna fail. 

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -5

week 2 -6

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

Just what Tony asked for. 

Over to Way Over, OK, OK (1 of the 2 under, can't decide), over, over, way over.

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Canadian Weeklies

Temps

Weeks 1 & 2.....Below

Weeks 3 & 4.....Normal

 

Pcpn

Week 1.......Dry

Week 2.......Normal

Weeks 3 & 4....Wet

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50 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -5

week 2 -6

week 3 -3

week 4 -2

week 5 -1

week 6 0

Just what Tony asked for. 

What couldn't sneak week 7 in and have -6, -5, -4, -3, -2 ,-1 , 0?

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1 minute ago, Boch23 said:

What couldn't sneak week 7 in and have -6, -5, -4, -3, -2 ,-1 , 0?

Tony wanted -10,-9,-8,-7,-6,-5

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CFS2 Weeklies, Delmarva Coastal Waters Cold Pool Affecting Temp Outlooks.

Week 2 Negative EPO should be coldest week unless cold bleeds more into week 3.

Weeks 3 & 4 (-PNA, zonal flow) look like they should be warmer than progged, but then again the week 3 & 4 progs are still likely wrong at 500mb.

Weeks 5 & 6 bring -NAO west

 

Temps    Previous Monday Outlook for same week in parentheses.

Week 1..........-3F (-3F) I'll take over, but still negative.

Week 2...........-3F (-5F) I'll take under.

Week 3...........-1F (-1F) I'll take over.

Week 4............0F (-1F) I'll take over.

Week 5.............0F (0F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.............-1F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...........dry

Week 2...........dry

Week 3...........wet

Week 4...........wet

Week 5...........normal (TTidbits)

Week 6...........dry  (TTidbits)

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