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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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week 1 -enao/-ao/neutral epo/+pna. very meridonal flow, below normal hgts. Trough centered over philly. Flow from Canada

week 2 +pna/-epo/-ao/+nao. Very meridonal flow, below normal hgts. Trough centered over detroit. Flow from Canada

week 3 neutral pna/-epo/-ao/-enao. Meridonal flow. normal hgts. Trough centered over Chicago. Flow from Pac NW. Some se ridge

week 4 -pna/-enao/-epo/-ao. some meridonal flow, pretty zonal. Trough centered over Kanasa City. Abv normal hgts, se ridge. Flow from pac NW

week 5 +epo/neutral pna/-enao/-ao. some meridonal flow. Trough centered over Chicago. Abv normal hgts. Little bit of a se ridge. Flow from pac nw

week 6 +ao/-enao/neutral pna/+epo. Some meridonal flow. Trough centered over Detroit. Normal hgts. Little bit of a se ridge. Flow from pac nw

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This fits the MJO progression pretty darn well with a wholescale pattern flip after New Years

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40 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This fits the MJO progression pretty darn well with a wholescale pattern flip after New Years

 

The period from 1/10 to 2/10 looks awfully good to the mizer with his favorite phases 4-7 :heatmiser::heatmiser:. Need help from the strat which I'm not seeing modeled on the GEFS cpc images. January wet this run. Then the mizer looked at the surface temps and went back into hibernation ;)

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There must be a lot of low level cold cause that seems a little to cold after week 3. That week 4 could have some carry over from week 3. I will say this nothing screamed torch to me. 

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

There must be a lot of low level cold cause that seems a little to cold after week 3

Thought the same thing. Edited comment above. Honestly, not a bad panic run. We got some blocking at times in Jan to keep the situation from going out of control. That week between Christmas and New years looks frigid and then the 1st of Jan not bad either. Snowfall stayed about the same (Thursday's version did include this past Saturday for NJ/DE) though I agree the amounts given are gibberish. I just use that as a potential index in terms of the pattern. 

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Granted this will be different next run, but here is the 7 day h5 mean from week 4 on. Week 4 I can see some -epo carry over, but that look seems like there should be cold centered west with warmth in the east. The below normal hgts in Alaska tell me there should be some PAC flow invading. 

eps_z500a_168h_nh_7.png

eps_z500a_168h_nh_9.png

eps_z500a_168h_nh_11.png

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

There must be a lot of low level cold cause that seems a little to cold after week 3. That week 4 could have some carry over from week 3. I will say this nothing screamed torch to me. 

 

2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Thought the same thing. Edited comment above. Honestly, not a bad panic run. We got some blocking at times in Jan to keep the situation from going out of control. That week between Christmas and New years looks frigid and then the 1st of Jan not bad either. Snowfall stayed about the same (Thursday's version did include this past Saturday for NJ/DE) though I agree the amounts given are gibberish. I just use that as a potential index in terms of the pattern. 

How similar is this model forecast to 93-94's actual January pattern? Mitch, your post made me wonder, especially the wet part. That year the Flyers probably could have practiced on Tombo's golf course. 

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51 minutes ago, JamieO said:

 

How similar is this model forecast to 93-94's actual January pattern? Mitch, your post made me wonder, especially the wet part. That year the Flyers probably could have practiced on Tombo's golf course. 

I am not at my computer, but Charlie actually posted a composite January 1994 map.  From what I recall its similar to the week leading up to Christmas, but not the Jan 2018 outlooked pattern.

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If the jam weeklies are a foreshadowing of the euro weeklies tonight it will be heavy se ridge look straight through with trough from great lakes to sw.

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week 1 -epo/neutral ao/+nao/-pna. Zonal flow. Flow from southwest US. trough centered over Salt Lake City. SE ridge

week 2 -epo/-ao/+nao/-pna. Zonal flow. Flow from southwest US. trough centered over Salt Lake City. SE ridge

week 3 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Some meridonal flow. Flow from PAC nw. Abv normal hgts. trough centered over Chicago

week 4 +epo/+ao/neutral nao/neutral pna. pretty zonal flow. Abv normal hgts. Trough centered over Chicago. Looks like a lot of Pacific flow here 

week 5 +epo/+ao/neutral nao/neutal pna. some meridonal flow. Abv normal hgts. Flow from pac nw. Trough centered over Chicago

week 6 +epo/+ao/neutral nao/neutal pna. some meridonal flow. Abv normal hgts. Flow from pac nw. Trough centered over Chicago

Pretty ugly looking and fits the mjo look

 

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I would think week 3 is colder than normal as well as maybe week 2. Week 4 could be tempered down to from overflow of week 3

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Weeklies should be very cold weeks 2 and 3. With the blocking at day 15, how long does it last but that will be a starting point tonight. I would suspect cold through the first half of the month then the mizer thaw for the later half of the month with the trough going into the west. 

 

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2 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Weeklies should be very cold weeks 2 and 3. With the blocking at day 15, how long does it last but that will be a starting point tonight. I would suspect cold through the first half of the month then the mizer thaw for the later half of the month with the trough going into the west. 

 

Yup, been on the 2nd week of Jan change since early dec

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Last 15 week 1 outlooks by the Monday Euro

12 have been too cold (including the week ending yesterday), two were perfect, one was too warm

Last 15 week 2 outlooks by the Monday Euro

10 have been too cold (including a lol -11 for this past week), 1 was perfect and four were too warm.

 

CFS2 breakdown for same weeks

Week 1:  7 / 5  (last week was perfect) / 3

Week 2:  9 / 1 (last week again!) / 5

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Trend Of CFS2 Weeklies looking lag colder than the 500mb pattern in LLLV

Anything beyond week 2  IMO is always for entertainment purposes only.   

Week 1 Start of the -EPO Man Ridge, -PNA/+NAO (NAO never looks negative thrut)

Week 2 Off the Charts --EPO & AO, -PNA Southwest Trof Hanging from Hudson Bay PV

Week 3 Siberian Ridge (Retrogression) -EPO/-AO Trof In Western Great Lakes

Week 4 Start of +EPO/ AO looks neutral PV starts going to Baffin Island

Week 5 -AO / +EPO Baffin PV, Trof in Plains How this gets a negative departure if close IDK

Week 6 LLLLLV Torchy Pattern, E Coast Ridge / Rockies Trof

To me it almost looks like there is too much of a lag with these temps by at least half a week.

 

Previous weekly outlook in parenthesis

Week 1.....+4F  (+3F)

Week 2.....-1F  (+1F)

Week 3.....-5F  (-3F)

Week 4......-3F (-2F)

Week 5......-1F  (-1F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.....+1F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...dry

Week 2...normal

Week 3...normal

Week 4...normal

Week 5....wet (TTidbits)

Week 6....wet (TTidbits)

 

 

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week 1 +ao/-epo/-pna-+nao. Abv normal hgts. flow from southwest US. mean trough in the rockies

week 2 neutral ao/+nao/-epo/-pna. Abv normal hgts. Flow from Kansas. Mean trough over Chicago

week 3 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. normal hgts. Flow from PAC nw. Mean trough over Detroit. 

week 4 +epo/+ao/+nao/neutral pna. Abv normal hgts. Flow from Oregon. Mean trough over Chicago

week 5 +epo+ao/+nao/neutral pna. Abv normal hgts. Flow from Oregon. Mean trough over Detroit. 

week 6 -epo/+ao/neutral nao/-pna.  Abv normal hgts. Flow from Oregon. Mean trough over Detroit. 

After week 3 it looks warm, very zonal flow. Weeks 2 and 3 should be well below normal

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12 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 +ao/-epo/-pna-+nao. Abv normal hgts. flow from southwest US. mean trough in the rockies

week 2 neutral ao/+nao/-epo/-pna. Abv normal hgts. Flow from Kansas. Mean trough over Chicago

week 3 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. normal hgts. Flow from PAC nw. Mean trough over Detroit. 

week 4 +epo/+ao/+nao/neutral pna. Abv normal hgts. Flow from Oregon. Mean trough over Chicago

week 5 +epo+ao/+nao/neutral pna. Abv normal hgts. Flow from Oregon. Mean trough over Detroit. 

week 6 -epo/+ao/neutral nao/-pna.  Abv normal hgts. Flow from Oregon. Mean trough over Detroit. 

After week 3 it looks warm, very zonal flow. Weeks 2 and 3 should be well below normal

Not bad at all

 

Week 4 on has low verification scores

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week 1 +4

week 2 -5

week 3 -5

week 4 +1

week 5 +3

week 6 +2

precip slightly below normal

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32 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 +4

week 2 -5

week 3 -5

week 4 +1

week 5 +3

week 6 +2

precip slightly below normal

Well quite the good model outlook forecast on your part. 

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21 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Well quite the good model outlook forecast on your part. 

Image result for laurel and hardy hat gif

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