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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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That's the good thing about a bad weeklies run is that it will be completely different next time. However, i was expecting improvement tonight. Should go into Monday expecting nothing again. 

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I just don't think they are that good. I mean you can get an overall idea sometimes, but the finer details as to where a gradient may get hung up or how strong or weak a ridge or trough is they won't do well with.

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10 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

I just don't think they are that good. I mean you can get an overall idea sometimes, but the finer details as to where a gradient may get hung up or how strong or weak a ridge or trough is they won't do well with.

Nothing past day 10 has been that skillful this season. Having weeks 3 thru 6 below normal means as much as having weeks 3 thru 6 above normal. 

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Guesses week 3 -3, week 4 -1, week 5, 0 week 6. 0. Days 10-15 way different than the last weeklies. I think the weeklies just put to much weight on a questionable day 15 EPS forecast. 

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CFS2:

Temps

Week 1.....+4F

Week 2.....+2F

Week 3.....0F

Week 4.....0F

 

Pcpn

Weeks 1 & 2....above

Weeks 3 & 4....normal

 

500mb (truly fwiw beyond week 2)

week 2....strong -epo ridge (assuming +2 outweighs cold at end of week)

weeks 3 & 4....above feature weakens, but -wnao picks up the slack.

 

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not sure whats wrong with the weeklies, but there timestamps are not working right. Might not be monday weeklies. 

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h5 isn't working right. will see if the temps part is messed up too when that comes out. 

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These numbers may be for the LV but shouldn't be that much different than phl. If they come in correctly I will update

 

 

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34 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

h5 isn't working right. will see if the temps part is messed up too when that comes out. 

All the dates are way off and don't match the 00z eps. Don't know what that is showing. Doubt anyone at wxbell given the holiday. Bobby's tweet Is close to my guess from earlier. 

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Good weeklies run, lol at the flip from Thursday's horror show. Maybe some consistency Thursday now that they look good? 

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Basically what I layed as the senieiro for flipping the PNA happens acording to weeklies. Although the deep trough retreats in week 3 the pullback forces a western ridge and dumps a trough in the east. While it looks like normal to slightly below temps wise, the look is very stormy without a SE ridge. A short warm-up would occur after the arctic shots in the first half of JAN on the weeklies. 

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h5

week 1 -epo/-ao/+nao/neutral pna/ abv normal hgts

week 2 -----epo/-----enao/natl ridge/-ao/-pna/ normal hgts

week 3 neutral epo/-wpo/-ao/-enao/ -pna/normal hgts

week 4 +epo/+ao/-enao/+pna/abv normal hgts

week 5 +pna/-epo/-enao/+ao/ below normal hgts

week 6 +pna/-epo/+ao/+nao/nromal hgts

going off 850s for temp

week 1 abv

week 2 below

week 3 below

week 4 near normal maybe slightly abv

week 5 near normal or slightly below

week 6 near normal or slightly below

 

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Lol at the weeklies, but lets keep on cancelling winter cause of the weeklies cause they have just been steady as a rock. 

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temps

week 1 +4

week 2 -1

week 3 -4

week 4 0

week 5 0

week 6 0

precip

normal every week

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11 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol at the weeklies, but lets keep on cancelling winter cause of the weeklies cause they have just been steady as a rock. 

The last 8 Monday Euro weeklies for weeks 3 & 4, half of the outlooks have had a cold bias, the other half not a cold bias.

dionne-cher-clueless.jpg

Of the 3 verified cold weeks, only two of the six Euro weeklies were outlooked colder than average, better off cheering the -PNA ridge on beyond week 2.

The Euro has not had a warm bias week one outlook since its previous version during the week of November 7th.

CFS2 last 8 Mon week 3 & 4: 9 of 16 outlooks had a warm bias; only 2 of its 16 outlooks were cold (6 in reality), it was a rousing 50% correct when going cold.

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42 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

 

Well given how great the models have been after week 2, this is what you want to see.  (I could see MJO as a stand alone force assisting maybe in week 4). 

wk3.wk4_20161228.z500.gif

 

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h5

week 1 ---epo/---pna/+ao/-enao/ normal hgts, little bit of se ridge

week 2 -epo/-wpo/-pna/+ao/-enao/ abv normal hgts

week 3 +pna/-wpo/neutral epo/-enao/slightly abv normal hgts

week 4 +pna/-epo/-ao/-wpo/-enao/normal hgts

week 5 +pna/-epo/-ao/-wpo/-enao/normal hgts

week 6 +pna/-epo/-ao/-wpo/+nao/below normal hgts

darn good looking pattern for late jan into feb if we are to believe the unreliable weeklies

 

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temps 

week 1 +2

week 2 0

week 3 +2

week 4 0

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

precip

week 1 above

week 2 slightly below

week 3 normal

week 4 normal

week 5 normal

week 6 slightly below

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Key tonight was the maintaining of the PNA flip in the day 15-20 range which is moving up in time. While that period will likely have another cutter as the western trough continues a retreat, the SE ridge goes away for the most part after that. 

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Can GGEM,

Temps

Week 1...near normal

Week 2...near normal island surrounded by warmer chances

Week 3...above normal

Week 4...near normal

 

Pcpn

Week 1...Confidently wet

Weeks 2 thru 4...normal

Reading temp departures looks like the Canadian loses the SE ridge week 4; the nao looks positive weeks 2 thru 4.

 

 

 

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