Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

Recommended Posts

24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I'll take the under on that +1 for next week

So would I, double to nothing on that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

week 1 -pna/-wpo/-ao/+nao/-epo. Below normal hgts

week 2 -wpo/neutral epo/-nao/neutral ao/+pna. Good meridonal flow, big Aleutian ridge, flow from Canada.

week 3 -wpo/neutral epo/neutral to slightly neg pna/+ao/neutral to pos nao/ rather zonal flow, mean trough just off the east coast, normal hgts

week 4 +pna/-epo/-ao/+nao/-wpo/ mean trough centered over lakes, abv normal hgts, some meridonal flow

week 5 +pna/-epo/-ao/+nao/-wpo/mean trough over the east coast, meridonal flow, normal hgts

week 6 -epo/+pna/-ao/+nao/-wpo/ some meridonal flow, normal hgts, mean trough looks to be over central lakes

 

Honestly, another pretty good run here. I don't expect the weeklies temps to be anything tundra like, but that  h5 look I would take. It at least doesn't have any sign of a huge se ridge or anything like that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

week 5 into week 6 looks like a 2013/2014 with pv induced gradient as PV tries to make a run towards Hudson Bay

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

seriously this weeks weeklies almost looks nino like. Has a split flow look too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

temps

week 1 -3

week 2 -2

week 3 -1

week 4 +1

week 5 -1

week 6 +1

precip slightly below normal

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Snow holding steady at around 4 inches in Philly and close to a foot at MPO. Would like to see the numbers increase given the weeklies are going deeper into winter.  Weeklies looked like a normal month of December. However, I liked how that trough off the west coast goes away. Heights are to high across most of the east given the ridge shown in the west. I think this run had issues figuring out the trough in the 10-15 day which carried through later in the run. Our main goal should be not to have a torchmas this year :smileys-snowman-924988:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biggest week 2 warm bust since the middle of March.  Neither the CFS2 nor the Euro saw the cold snap of last week (as nearby as week 2) coming.  Euro & CFS2 not cold enough week 1 either, but at least had the right sign.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

week 1 -wpo/+epo/-nao/+pna/-ao. Aleutian ridge Normal hgts, some meridonal flow, still a little zonal. mean trough over pit

week 2 neutral nao/+epo/+pna/neutral ao/+wpo/ Aleutian low, mean trough in the east, normal hgts. Some meridonal still a little zonal. Mean trough over Atlantic ocean

week 3 +wpo/+epo/+pna/+nao/+ao. Aleutian low, normal hgts, mean trough in the east, some meridonal flow, still a little zonal. Mean trough over Cleveland

week 4 +wpo/-epo/+pna/neutral ao/+nao/ Aleutian low, normal hgts. Some meridonal flow, still a little zonal. Mean trough over Indianapolis

week 5 +wpo/-epo/neutral pna/+nao/-ao/ still a bit of an Aleutian low. Mean trough over Chicago. Bit of a se ridge with some lower hgts back in the west. Abv normal hgts Pretty zonal flow

week 6 -wpo/-epo/-ao/-nao/neutral pna. Looks like there is going to be a massive cold dump coming into the Plains. Abv normal hgts, still pretty zonal. Mean trough over Chicago

 

I don't really see any big cold or torch signal. Week 5 would be my guess with warmest anomalies.  Still nothing to alarming. I would definitely watch though for more cold into the US if these epo dumps occur.  Still not a bad weeklies run really. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

temps

week 1 -2

week 2 -1

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 +1

week 6 +1

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Canadian Weeklies

Temps near normal all four weeks.  Weeks 1 & 2 have cold south of us, weeks 3 & 4 have warmth west & east of us.

Pcpn below normal weeks 1 & 2; near normal weeks 3 & 4.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll just take the euro control which buries my car under feet of snow at the airport parking lot between Christmas and New Years. Seriously, these weeklies are flopping around a bit but this run just had a lot of transient things with it and a normal December. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In general CFS2 weeklies undo the -nao pattern after week 2 and are fairly stoutly ninaish from week 3 beyond.  I'd say week 3 looks the torchiest, but anything beyond week 2 in either direction is for entertainment purposes only.  Not much skill past day 8 with the nao and it was already proven this month.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

In general CFS2 weeklies undo the -nao pattern after week 2 and are fairly stoutly ninaish from week 3 beyond.  I'd say week 3 looks the torchiest, but anything beyond week 2 in either direction is for entertainment purposes only.  Not much skill past day 8 with the nao and it was already proven this month.

 

Another winter cancel run?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Another winter cancel run?

The dollar cost average 500mb pattern looks especially on TTidbits are so zonalish I never know how much to increase the amplitude.  The temps after week 2 are above, again its after week 2.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

week 1 -nao/-epo/+pna/-ao. Flow from Canada, below normal hgts. Trough centered over Philly

week 2 -nao/neutral epo/-ao/neutral pna. Split flow nino look. Below normal hgts, flow from US/Canada border. Trough centered over Long Island

week 3 -epo/-ao/neutral nao/neutral pna. split flow look. Above normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over lake Mich. Little bit of a se ridge

week 4 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Split flow look. Normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over Detroit.

week 5 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. above normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over Detroit. Little bit of  a se ridge look 

week 6 -epo/-ao/-enao/neutral pna. Normal hgts, flow from PAC NW. Trough centered over Detroit. Big cold signal spreading into N plains and OH valley and comes east

Again, not a bad weekly run at all. Nothing torch-like nor brutal cold showing up. Pretty seasonable looking. A lot of high lat blocking continues on the weeklies. Not so much nao region but in Alaska and across the pole. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CFS2 run continues to bring a milder pattern in the LLLLLLLLV section. On the plus side IMO anything beyond week 2 (and sometimes week 2) is for entertainment purposes only.   I'd say weeks 3 & 5 pattern look the warmest for us, week 6 has a colder look, of course all of this is in the entertainment section.

Week 1 has the -nao/+pna pattern at its strongest, which starts to unwind in week 2.

Weeks 3 to 6 have an outlooked +nao pattern with the highest height departures over the lower Mississippi week 3, over us week 4, off the east coast week 5 and in the central Atlantic week 6. The greast hints at Aleutian troffing are weeks 4 & 6.

Previous Monday outlook anomaly for same week in parenthesis.

Week 1.....-4F  (+1F)  taking the under seemed wise 

Week 2.....-1F  (+2F)

Week 3.....+3F (+2F)

Week 4......+2F  (+2F)  

Week 5......+2F  (+2F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.....+1F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...below

Week 2...below

Week 3...normal

Week 4...wet

 Week 5....wet (TTidbits)

Week 6....normal (TTidbits)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Week just concluded in PHL average -1F and both the Euro & CFS2 returned to their normal bias and were too cold, this time in a cold week.

Running total for year:

weeklies.JPG.14d51e5161b2884d0712f088a34f9d67.JPG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Week just concluded in PHL average -1F and both the Euro & CFS2 returned to their normal bias and were too cold, this time in a cold week.

Running total for year:

weeklies.JPG.14d51e5161b2884d0712f088a34f9d67.JPG

Whats funny, the overall bias of the weeklies in general is warm. Not talking here, but just nationally. It has  very hard time seeing cold past week 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Whats funny, the overall bias of the weeklies in general is warm. Not talking here, but just nationally. It has  very hard time seeing cold past week 2

True. The Euro ensembles weeks 3 or 4 in particular rarely deviate much from + / -  1 so they lose in warm years for not recognizing warm weeks either.  This also could be a case that the weeklies don't know Philly is an urban site.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Temps

week 1 -2

week 2 -3

week 3 +1

week 4 0

week 5 +1

week 6 0

precip below normal

These 850 temps?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't trust much past week 2 now. Only thing I take away is the blocking looks more legit than the past couple of years in general. The week 5-6 period on Monday's weeklies would be several degrees below normal given the 500 but Thursday's weeklies likely will be different. CFS 2 performance is not good in recent weeks as well, modeled blowtorch for this month has not worked out. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×