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tombo82685

CFS, GGEM, JMA, and Euro Weeklies Thread

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Canadian Weeklies

Temperatures

Week 1.....normal/above normal southeast

Week 2.....confidentially above normal

Week 3.....normal

Week 4.....normal

Looking at temps, looks like trof  is in central conus  weeks 3 & 4.

 

Precipitation

Week 1....wet around us

Week 2....normal; wet from Great Lakes westward

Week 3....normal

Week 4....dry east

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Also, this progressed from what Monday's weeklies showed. They had a pattern shift too starting first week of dec. be interesting to see how next week plays out. Not holding my breath with how the weeklies shift around. Being over 3+ weeks away it's more just an outlook

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December cancel CFS2 run in LLLLLLLLV part. On the plus side (or should I say minus side) , every week is colder than it was outlooked last week at this time.  Anyway anything beyond week 2 (and sometimes week 2) is for entertainment purposes only.  Off of TTidbits (which is the average of the last four days op run vs CPC site which is an ensemble member run of most recent output)

Week 1 dominated by Aleutian Ridge and west coast trof.

As we head into week 2 our flow is zonal, although the Aleutian ridge is higher (than where it was a week ago at this time) and thus cold air should dump on our side of the globe but looks west coast centric.  To me this still looks too cold an average even if the cold air dump is on this side of noam, it looks west first.

By week 3 ridge anomaly centers are still in the Aleutians and Nova Scotia. 

Week 4 (in spite of anomalies) has an ern noam trof and Aleutian trof.  If not for week 4, this would be colder than the anomalies.

Week 5 and 6 are full boar +NAO dominated.  Plus is that the PV is over Baffin Island and not Siberia.

 Previous Monday outlook anomaly for same week in parenthesis.

Week 1.....+1F  (+5F)  

Week 2.....-2F  (+2F)

Week 3.....+2F (+4F)

Week 4......+3F  (+3F)  

Week 5......+2F  (+6F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.....+3F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...wet

Week 2...dry

Week 3...wet

Week 4...normal

 Week 5....dry (TTidbits)

Week 6....normal (TTidbits)

 

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BTW this was the third consecutive week that the CFS2 week 1 temp forecast was perfect for Philadelphia.

The last time a week 1 temp outlook from the Euro was too cold for Philadelphia was the week of August 28th.  The last time any Euro week 2 thru 4 outlooks were too cold was the week of September 4th.  It also was the last time a weekly average was below normal in Philadelphia.

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Only thing I hate about the cfs is it's an avg of runs over last 12 days. So say for the first 10 days it saw a warm look. Then for the last 2 days it finally caught on to a colder look you would never know 

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Basically what I'm saying I would rather see the trend in the days closer to forecast period than an avg over 12days

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

2020? :unsure:

I was thinking 2100

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week 1 -epo/Aleutian ridge/+nao/-pna/-ao/ zonal flow, slightly abv normal hgts

week 2 -ao/+epo/Aleutian ridge/-ao/+nao/-pna/zonal flow, slightly abv normal hgts

week 3 -ao/-nao/+pna/+epo/Aleutian ridge migrates to Siberia/ Meridonal flow below normal hgts

week 4 -ao/-nao/+pna/neutral epo/ Aleutian trough/ Meridonal flow, well below normal hgts

week 5 neutral ao/-nao/neutral epo/+pna/Aleutian trough/ Meridonal flow, below normal hgts

week 6 -epo/-nao/-ao/+pna/ meridonal flow, below normal hgts

 

Holy heck at these weeklies. If these are correct goin to be an insane end to November and awesome December

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week 1 -2

week 2 0

week 3 -1

week 4 -3

week 5 -1

week 6 -2

 

precip slightly below normal

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -2

week 2 0

week 3 -1

week 4 -3

week 5 -1

week 6 -2

precip slightly below normal

 

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Conus very snowy on this weeklies run as well, wx bell  (cough) maps have a little under a foot at MPO and even a few inches at the shore. 

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Predictions sure to go wrong for tonight. Snow prediction is about the same from Monday's run.

Week 1 -3

Week 2 -1

Week 3 0

Week 4 0

Week 5 -1

Week 6  0

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week 1 -wpo/neutral epo/+nao/-ao. Below normal hgts, some meridonal flow but still pretty zonal

week 2 +pna/-ao/-nao/+epo/-wpo. Below normal hgts, meridonal flow

week 3 -wpo/-ao/-nao/+pna/+epo. Normal hgts. Meridonal flow, but not as robust as prior week.

week 4 -wpo/neutral epo/-nao/neutral ao/+pna, normal hgts.  Meridonal flow

week 5 -Enao/neutral ao/+pna/-epo/-wpo/. Normal hgts, area of below normal hgts just to the north. Meridonal flow

week 6 +pna/-epo/+nao/neutral ao/-wpo. Normal hgts. Meridonal flow

Pretty solid 6 weeks of weeklies. The pacific pattern is pretty shocking with all the +pna action. The trough is in the east the whole 6 weeks. If this were to occur as the weeklies have, it will be a fun December. 

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

week 1 -wpo/neutral epo/+nao/-ao. Below normal hgts, some meridonal flow but still pretty zonal

week 2 +pna/-ao/-nao/+epo/-wpo. Below normal hgts, meridonal flow

week 3 -wpo/-ao/-nao/+pna/+epo. Normal hgts. Meridonal flow, but not as robust as prior week.

week 4 -wpo/neutral epo/-nao/neutral ao/+pna, normal hgts.  Meridonal flow

week 5 -Enao/neutral ao/+pna/-epo/-wpo/. Normal hgts, area of below normal hgts just to the north. Meridonal flow

week 6 +pna/-epo/+nao/neutral ao/-wpo. Normal hgts. Meridonal flow

Pretty solid 6 weeks of weeklies. The pacific pattern is pretty shocking with all the +pna action. The trough is in the east the whole 6 weeks. If this were to occur as the weeklies have, it will be a fun December. 

Not working in wxbell for me. Are you able to see more from another source? 

Nevermind the 7 day mean graphics do work. 850 mb temps are warmer than the 500 mb look would indicate. 

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6 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Not working in wxbell for me. Are you able to see more from another source? 

Nevermind the 7 day mean graphics do work. 850 mb temps are warmer than the 500 mb look would indicate. 

They won't be nearly as cold as monday's were but thats still a nice h5 look. Think thats all you can ask for. 

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temps

week 1 -1

week 2 -3

week 3 -1

week 4 +1

week 5 -1

week 6 -1

precip way below normal

 

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Christmas day looks great with a low forming in the southern Rockies and plenty of blocking to keep it coming east and not cut. :):abomsnow: only 1104 hrs out. 

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Canadian Weeklies have near normal temps all four weeks.  No sign of southeast ridge.  Looking at the GEPs from today, they are more zonal with the Pacific flow and maybe not as Baffinish with the -NAO anomaly.

Pcpn

Week 1 is wet east

Weeks 2 and 3 are dry

Week 4 is near normal.

 

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CFS2 run continues to bring the nina pattern in the LLLLLLLLV part. On the plus side (or should I say minus side) , the first three weeks have trended colder.  IMO anything beyond week 2 (and sometimes week 2) is for entertainment purposes only.  Off of TTidbits (which is the average of the last four days op run vs CPC site which is an ensemble member run of most recent output)

Week 1 has the return of more zonal/near normal temp flow.  If CFP is slower a midnight high Saturday night could cost the CFS2 its temp outlook.

Week 2 has the rexy -nao west block in eastern noam.  Whether science (fiction?) or pulp fiction toward the end of week 2 the models are weakening this pattern, I think the CFS2 too soon.

Weeks 3 & 4 have more of a firehose look in the Pacific, the outlooked wpo and epo at the end of week 2 are trending positive.  The troffing gets closer to the west coast, but positive anomalies at H5 are still north/northeast of us, could be a bunch of strong highs up there if close.

Week 5 and 6 are full boar +NAO/Se ridge dominated.  Not that different from where we were last week at this time.

 Previous Monday outlook anomaly for same week in parenthesis.

Week 1.....-3F  (-2F)  

Week 2.....+1F  (+2F)

Week 3.....+2F (+3F)

Week 4......+2F  (+2F)  

Week 5......+3F  (+3F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.....+2F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...dry (good luck)

Week 2...normal

Week 3...wet

Week 4...normal

 Week 5....wet (TTidbits)

Week 6....normal (TTidbits)

Change in week 2 from a week ago:

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_2.png.9793ccf6ec1b4376ca7ac793683661b2.png

cfs-avg_z500aMean_namer_3.png.11d6c04bf90feacddb5dfab230c4521d.png

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18 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

CFS2 run continues to bring the nina pattern in the LLLLLLLLV part. On the plus side (or should I say minus side) , the first three weeks have trended colder.  IMO anything beyond week 2 (and sometimes week 2) is for entertainment purposes only.  Off of TTidbits (which is the average of the last four days op run vs CPC site which is an ensemble member run of most recent output)

Week 1 has the return of more zonal/near normal temp flow.  If CFP is slower a midnight high Saturday night could cost the CFS2 its temp outlook.

Week 2 has the rexy -nao west block in eastern noam.  Whether science (fiction?) or pulp fiction toward the end of week 2 the models are weakening this pattern, I think the CFS2 too soon.

Weeks 3 & 4 have more of a firehose look in the Pacific, the outlooked wpo and epo at the end of week 2 are trending positive.  The troffing gets closer to the west coast, but positive anomalies at H5 are still north/northeast of us, could be a bunch of strong highs up there if close.

Week 5 and 6 are full boar +NAO/Se ridge dominated.  Not that different from where we were last week at this time.

 Previous Monday outlook anomaly for same week in parenthesis.

Week 1.....-3F  (-2F)  

Week 2.....+1F  (+2F)

Week 3.....+2F (+3F)

Week 4......+2F  (+2F)  

Week 5......+3F  (+3F) (TTidbits)

Week 6.....+2F (TTidbits)

 

Pcpn

Week 1...dry (good luck)

Week 2...normal

Week 3...wet

Week 4...normal

 Week 5....wet (TTidbits)

Week 6....normal (TTidbits)

Change in week 2 from a week ago:

 

 

I'll take the under on that +1 for next week

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