Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


DelcoWx

Statistical Methods Used in Forecasting

Recommended Posts

I was surfing through the forum recently and I noticed Tony made a reference to doing a chi-square test for a forecast. I took a stats course over the summer (required for business admin/accounting majors), so it got me thinking what kinds of stats tests mets would use when forecasting.

So just out of curiosity, what statistical methods do mets use and for what purposes? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, DelcoWx said:

I was surfing through the forum recently and I noticed Tony made a reference to doing a chi-square test for a forecast. I took a stats course over the summer (required for business admin/accounting majors), so it got me thinking what kinds of stats tests mets would use when forecasting.

So just out of curiosity, what statistical methods do mets use and for what purposes? 

MOS guidance is a linear regression stat program that uses model forecast elements as predicands.  That is probably the biggest one.  We had a met who double majored as a stats major and he developed a regression technique to predict tides based on past occurrences and current model guidance. He used to also have winter/summer temperature outlooks (within a confidence interval) based on Spring & Fall Temps and occurrence of first heat wave/cold snap (he would have this winter being above avg based on how Oct & Nov have gone so far in his prelim).  He also developed pcpn intervals based on model qpf forecasts (everyone would be surprised at how wide those ranges are for a first period .50" forecast.).

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

MOS guidance is a linear regression stat program that uses model forecast elements as predicands.  That is probably the biggest one.  We had a met who double majored as a stats major and he developed a regression technique to predict tides based on past occurrences and current model guidance. He used to also have winter/summer temperature outlooks (within a confidence interval) based on Spring & Fall Temps and occurrence of first heat wave/cold snap (he would have this winter being above avg based on how Oct & Nov have gone so far in his prelim).  He also developed pcpn intervals based on model qpf forecasts (everyone would be surprised at how wide those ranges are for a first period .50" forecast.).

Interesting, Tony. Thanks! 

I'll probably never approach the level of mathematical understanding that mets need to do their job, but it's really neat to have a very basic understanding of useful applications for this stuff. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...