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chescopawxman

2016-17 Private Professional MET- Seasonal Forecasts

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Let's start this little thread off with a forecast overview from the fine folks at Weatherbell Analytics

For here in the Northeast they have a warmer than normal front half and colder back half of winter. However, the Nov/Dec start colder than last year (not that I would call that sticking your neck out).

Overall in our area above normal snowfall for the season (from first flake to last). General thoughts as follows "We are concerned that winter is going to get underway during the month of November, at least in a back and forth fashion. The JMA model sticks a trough over the Northeast in December and there is plenty of concern about that. For now we are focusing more on December than November as the "start" of winter. In the end this winter will be more like 2013-14 and 2014-15 as far as centering cold over the East and Midwest and not across the South. There is low probability of the core of cold being in the West."

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WB Team has updated their Winter forecast with headlines as follows:

  • Extreme cold December possible ( 1 to 3 degrees below normal over the Northeast including the PHL area)
  • Analog technique favors back and forth with leftover colder than normal January/February
  • Still relatively high uncertainty
  • Swath of above normal snows over Pacific Northwest to western High Plains and in the Great Lakes and Northeast
  • Texas, southern Plains and Southeast look milder
    • Core of cold should stay mainly to the north

The WeatherBELL team has settled on the strongest analogs of 1966-67, 1983-84 and 1995-96 with 2013-14 double-weighted and single weights to 1960-61, 2005-06, 2008-09 and 2014-15. The pure analog is colder, but to adjust for modeling that is warmer and a more modern climatology, a degree was added across the board.

The Verdict

A colder and snowier winter is on the way for the Great Lakes, Northeast, much of the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, with warmth centered in the West. The warmth could also extend across the South. There is a danger of major cold from Thanksgiving to New Year's. As far as later in the winter, we will evaluate that as we get closer. Given the worry about December, it has been made the coldest month, with some backing off in January. February is bound by a greater uncertainty with how far out it is.

Overall in terms of the last 8 seasons, this would be the fifth coldest out of the eight. The worst case it could wind up in the top 3, though. I seriously doubt it would be warmer than the warmest three.

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Per JB this AM "The cold is marching to the tune ( overall I know there are some sour notes) to the song we have been playing. I love what I am seeing as once the block locks the US WINTER will rock!"

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From our friend JB over at WB from his post after the EURO weeklies..

"And so my fellow winter weather nuts. There are no changes from our ideas. The step down to colder continues through mid December. The rest of the run to me (it may not be to everyone but to me it) is strange looking. I have heard arguments for cold later in December, but this is opposite. I am not going to react in a knee-jerk fashion. In the end I think we are on the right track."

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From NJPA Weather - Steve D's overall forecast below - with near to above normal snowfall for the Philadelphia Region....

DECEMBER:  Winter pattern expected to be established by mid month and will start to feature winter storms from the Rockies on east for the end of the month.

JANUARY:  Heart of winter.  Winter storm threats high along with invasions of Arctic air masses.  There will be the potential for a relaxation in the pattern in mid to late month for about a week or so.

FEBRUARY:  Winter storm threat returns for first half of the month followed by a slow relaxation for the end of February.  Arctic air masses begin to retreat and high latitude blocking relaxes.

MARCH:  Look for an early arrival of Spring.

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Per JB this AM on overall winter forecast....he sounds a little concerned me thinks!!

"There is no sugar coating the implication of the Canadian model...Our forecast is out and looks nothing like this, and if it is right, its as bad as it gets a rerun of 11-12 and even a bigger debacle for me at least I had not spent 6 months forecasting it to be cold. As ugly as it gets"

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9 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Per JB this AM on overall winter forecast....he sounds a little concerned me thinks!!

"There is no sugar coating the implication of the Canadian model...Our forecast is out and looks nothing like this, and if it is right, its as bad as it gets a rerun of 11-12 and even a bigger debacle for me at least I had not spent 6 months forecasting it to be cold. As ugly as it gets"a

Actually this looks like it was last night.....

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Final Winter Forecast update from the Weather Bell Team

"largely follows the evolution of the ideas we have had since summer. That included a later start, but updates began to stress the cold up front, which is obvious now. So we have Colder than normal winter for much of U.S. from the Plains eastward Forecast relies heavily on our analogs, the WeatherBELL Pioneer model and the path we have been on, which has been largely correct since last spring.Our snowfall forecast is relying on the cold to produce both Lake Effect and large scale storms over the interior Northeast. The big news is that the core of the heaviest snow is back to the northwest but the big cities should be above normal anyway.The forecast is cold because we feel the cold options will either fight to a draw or win most of the time. This would leave warmth making appearances, most amplified in the Southwest and extending across the South. The feedback of the season, now that cold is coming into North America, is arguing for snow and cold to develop a partnership, as it's the right time of the year for that. In terms of other winters and the potential that is on the table, our forecast is tame, though most certainly at odds with any warmer ideas out there"

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Latest WeatherBell winter forecast progress update....

The Verdict

I am not ready to change any of the long standing ideas we have based on this run of the Euro Weeklies. We are expecting large scale normal to below temperatures in January and February. So the Euro Weekly run is inconclusive, and run to run consistency is leaving plenty to be desired.

Notes and asides

The latest Weatherbell Pioneer analogs have 1981-82 first, 1983-84 second, 1966-67 third, 2008-09 fourth and 2000-01 fifth, with 2012-13, 1962-63 and 1995-96 in the mix. The SST analog has this for JFM:

This is suggesting a winter similar to the three before the last one, where there is cold involved in January-March. The latest CFSv2 is quite cold for January. My suggestion is that you stick close to our ideas, for at the very least, they have been talking about the current cold. I look for the pattern later this month into January to be back and forth and biased a bit colder than average over the East, with warmth in the Southwest that will have to be looked at to balloon to the northeast.

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