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talonsmith

Pre Hermine Discussion (as 99L & TD9)

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1 minute ago, talonsmith said:

Will the very warm Surface temperatures help it if it gets there?

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk
 

Never that easy. Warm waters are one part of the equation. Shear, upper air pattern etc all play a role. It wouldn't hurt though. 

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Ps, no one look at the long range euro?

 

Takes suspect #1 across Florida as a weak ts/depression and then into the gulf and goes bonkers lol. Worth keeping an eye on. 

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35 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Ps, no one look at the long range euro?

 

Takes suspect #1 across Florida as a weak ts/depression and then into the gulf and goes bonkers lol. Worth keeping an eye on. 

It was just a matter of time.  All of the other models went ballistic somewhere that have deterministic solutions beyond 144 hours.

GufMex water must be near 90 in the Loop Current.  At this point I'd like to thank that WAR.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

It was just a matter of time.  All of the other models went ballistic somewhere that have deterministic solutions beyond 144 hours.

GufMex water must be near 90 in the Loop Current.  At this point I'd like to thank that WAR.

Yea with that WAR look, only place it can go is under or around it. Big question is, does it develop into something that Makes Adam turn into a tropical version of heisy 

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28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea with that WAR look, only place it can go is under or around it. Big question is, does it develop into something that Makes Adam turn into a tropical version of heisy 

You can tell where some of its more intense ensemble members are:

16083112_2112.gif

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8 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You can tell where some of its more intense ensemble members are:

 

GGEM, GGEM,GGEM,GGEM

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

 Lol.

in all seriousness though, EPS mean bring this across FL or under fl then into the gulf. Prime area it has labeled right now is right around where Katrina went. 

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17 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

You can tell where some of its more intense ensemble members are:

16083112_2112.gif

Yeah, EPS take 99L across FL into NE Gulf as a TS. Days 10-15 have it turning back to the northeast but staying offshore for the most part. 

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27 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

Yeah, EPS take 99L across FL into NE Gulf as a TS. Days 10-15 have it turning back to the northeast but staying offshore for the most part. 

If I were forecasting I'd simply issue a small craft advisory & call it a night

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

in all seriousness though, EPS mean bring this across FL or under fl then into the gulf. Prime area it has labeled right now is right around where Katrina went. 

In all seriousness this is why I hope all tropical systems eat Sahara dust and die (not that what I hope for ever ever affects the outcome and who knows what happens instead to balance the heat budget may somehow be worse).  Right now the state of Louisiana probably wishes this was the end of November and not the end of August.

Hi Adam! :bye::ph34r::unsure:    Who hacked my account?

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euro was into panhandle of Florida again then up the southeast coast and off hse

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Are you guys talking about 99L or now TD Gaston? Looks like Gaston will head out in to the open Atlantic from what I can see according to the NHC. Looks 99L has its sight set on Florida, if it develops in to a TD.

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33 minutes ago, cbelke said:

Are you guys talking about 99L or now TD Gaston? Looks like Gaston will head out in to the open Atlantic from what I can see according to the NHC. Looks 99L has its sight set on Florida, if it develops in to a TD.

99l

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Looks like the GFS initialized the center too south based on where the ensemble members are starting it.

aal99_2016082300_track_gfs.png

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Now that the likelihood of 99L becoming Hermine has increased and a modeling predicted threat to the conus, we will start a separate thread.  If it becomes more of a threat to our area, we will start a short term thread on it.

 

 

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Eps are clustered further to the east at 0z. Bring it somewhere off se coast aimes towards sc/nc then curve it out

 

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How strong that ridge and its position north of 99L will determine where it goes. 

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EPS have a stronger indicator this run as well. The GFS lost it which is typical for the GFS to have it then go MIA. A LA hit is showing up on some ensemble members, scary.  We will really need the tropical rain by this point but not at a big cost elsewhere. worst track for us would be parallel up the east coast a 50/50 blend of Arthur and Irene but this is more unlikely at this point like 5 of 51 EPS members. 

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