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Rainshadow

Meteorological Fall Pattern Discussions, This Time Like Snow In The Winter, This Thread Will Stick

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Apologies, some moderators should not be permitted to play with delete keys. I accidentally deleted the whole thread instead of what I thought was just my last post in the thread. Anyway, the thread started with the September modeling outlook and a general tamer nina outlook for the winter.

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Lollllll...Anyways, could see another warm up starting mid week next week going into the weekend. Then we would have to see how strong of a +pna develops and where it's oriented as to how far east it wants to push a trof. If the ridge stays on the west coast, you will see that Bermuda high type ridge linger on the east coast. If it's further inland that trof should push that ridge off shore. Though, in general it still looks like an above normal pattern. Granted normals are coming down so it may not be 90s, but above normal none of the less. Not much help from the MJO either as that is dead. 

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Now to summarize other posts, apologies to Tom, Mitch, Bob and JamieO if I get any of this wrong.

 

 

Tom was loving a weak la nina winter to which Tony said a negative enso neutral winter was even better (1960-61).

Tom loved that analog because it was cold and Mitch loved that analog because it was snowy.

Bob and ATB came back and posted that the September sun angle is stinky and any heat from here on is likely fleeting.

Tom posted that Barrow is about to get its first snow and Tony responded about getting cords.

JamieO posted that HM was talking about a 13-14 look with the usual caveats.

Tom :wub: that analog potential and he posted about a shorter term warm up leading into September.

So there.  Apologies for erasing the posts and if I missed anyone....

 

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Still not looking like a cool start to the fall, very zonal.  Not much help from a -nao.

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This time if year a -nao doesn't correlate to cool like it usually does in winter time. Shorter wavelengths ftl

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41 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This time if year a -nao doesn't correlate to cool like it usually does in winter time. Shorter wavelengths ftl

Getting into September you sometimes get surface highs traversing southeast Canada that give us a blocky maritime northeast flow and if really lucky a plethora of stratocu.  Anyway as of now it looks too north.

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Getting back to "fall",  at least for now the 99 luft balloon predicted high Labor Day Week was an outlier model. (Not that this ensemble mean screams chilly).

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06z GFS has a 2m high of 99 in la la land in early September. Waiting for the time when the GFS switches to predicting lows of -10F in la la land.

Op again not a very representative run, troffier than most west, ridgier than most east.

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51 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

enjoy....

 

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CqqObMwWAAQF5A-.jpg

 

 

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Those are MEAN surface temp anomalies. The only good thing is +5 doesnt buy what it once did.  I am guessing no negative weeklies tomorrow night.

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19 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Those are MEAN surface temp anomalies. The only good thing is +5 doesnt buy what it once did.  I am guessing no negative weeklies till 2020.

fyp

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WAR, get use to it for the next 15 days. Going to be s permanent feature parked over the east coast. 

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

WAR, get use to it for the next 15 days. Going to be s permanent feature parked over the east coast. 

Well at least the 12z GFS threw a cool outlier to make us feel better.

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Finally the zero isotherm gets close to the US in Maine. Per the ECMWF from 12z Thu, the 10 day fcst for 12z Sep 4 shows the zero isotherm at h8 just nw of Maine.

With the Tropical systems and now the H8 zero, Autumn is finally showing up.

 

Bob

 

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we may see a brief "cool" and by cool maybe a return to normal in the friday-sunday period of next week or better known as Labor Day weekend. After that though, a strong signal for the WAR to emerge on the east coast heating things back up a good bit above normal. 

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45 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

we may see a brief "cool" and by cool maybe a return to normal in the friday-sunday period of next week or better known as Labor Day weekend. After that though, a strong signal for the WAR to emerge on the east coast heating things back up a good bit above normal. 

Op 18z GFS has a double barrel cool down, the one the EC has and then a second one in the middle of Labor Day week. Fear not, it has its defacto mid 90s high at the end of its run on September 10th.  Plus its bone dry.

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7 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Op 18z GFS has a double barrel cool down, the one the EC has and then a second one in the middle of Labor Day week. Fear not, it has its defacto mid 90s high at the end of its run on September 10th.  Plus its bone dry.

the eps have .5 on the mean for the next 10 days and .8 at the end of 15 days...

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3 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

the eps have .5 on the mean for the next 10 days and .8 at the end of 15 days...

The revenge of Gus continues.

BTW MJO phases 7, 8, 1 (I dont think we are in phase 5 anyway) are all warm. Other thing, they should be becoming more favorable for tropical development. Quite the safe (going out on a limb) latter statement given we are nearing peak of tropical season.

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16 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

The revenge of Gus continues.

BTW MJO phases 7, 8, 1 (I dont think we are in phase 5 anyway) are all warm. Other thing, they should be becoming more favorable for tropical development. Quite the safe (going out on a limb) latter statement given we are nearing peak of tropical season.

and with the that big atlantic ridge, assuming they can survive the shear in the atlantic and make it into the Caribbean, Bahamas, or gulf, it's ripe for development. The roundy plots show we went into phase 8, then it croaked into COD and emerged in phase 2 going to phase 4 before it croaks again. Though, I'm not sure if thats right. Everything else I have seen shows +olr right now over the IO. 

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Op 18z GFS has a double barrel cool down, the one the EC has and then a second one in the middle of Labor Day week. Fear not, it has its defacto mid 90s high at the end of its run on September 10th.  Plus its bone dry.

I hope the cool down is correct. Normals after Labor day are around 80, so even above normal is not bad, as long as it isn't record highs. We do need rain though.

So far out in time, I don't trust much in way of models too long range. Any hurricane or typhoon entering the jetstream can have a big impact and change the worldwide pattern.

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1 hour ago, retiredwxman said:

I hope the cool down is correct. Normals after Labor day are around 80, so even above normal is not bad, as long as it isn't record highs. We do need rain though.

So far out in time, I don't trust much in way of models too long range. Any hurricane or typhoon entering the jetstream can have a big impact and change the worldwide pattern.

New Euro weeklies are pretty grossly warm first three weeks. Even if well into the 80s is not as bad as what once would have been well into the 90s, it still robs us of pleasant fall weather.  :(  

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still looking like most of next week featuring near 90 or better temps till about Friday. Looks like we get some sort of backdoor front that cools us down to normal or maybe slightly below for labor day weekend. The heat though reuturns on Labor Day or just after as the WAR rebuilds. 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

still looking like most of next week featuring near 90 or better temps till about Friday. Looks like we get some sort of backdoor front that cools us down to normal or maybe slightly below for labor day weekend. The heat though reuturns on Labor Day or just after as the WAR rebuilds. 

Hoping that the faster GGEM, GFS timing is better, one day less.  

Fear not about fall weather in fall, 0600z GFS says Booyah!!!!!!! (I dont know how to spell it) to the WAR.  This is only the 36th time this year its predicted a 2m max temp of at least 100 degrees at PHL.  I cant make stuff like this up.  Being warmer than normal one thing, forecasting 100 over and over and over again, there is a definition of model insanity in there.

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WAR, the gift that keeps on giving:

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Yes the op GFS once again was the hottest at this forecast period, but the ensemble mean is not cool looking. 

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

WAR, the gift that keeps on giving:

 

Yes the op GFS once again was the hottest at this forecast period, but the ensemble mean is not cool looking. 

 

that WAR is Scott Farkus and I'm Flip saying "UNCLE UNCLE"

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