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Rainshadow

Meteorological Fall Pattern Discussions, This Time Like Snow In The Winter, This Thread Will Stick

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Looking like the best shot of rain coming up is next Wednesday timeframe with a cold front. Then it should cool down to seasonal or slightly below in that Fri-SUN period before we turn the heat back up. 

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

that WAR is Scott Farkus and I'm Flip saying "UNCLE UNCLE"

I am going to go lick a metal pole at 1 pm EDT on September 1st and see if I get a second degree burn. (Don't do this at home). ;)

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Just something I came across that may interest all of us. I wish I could afford it.

I didn't know where to post this, but thought medium and long range might apply since it is happening the next few weeks.

I am talking about the first cruise through the Northwest passage/Canadian Northwest passage. Here is a link...

http://www.foxnews.com/travel/2016/08/25/where-luxury-meets-danger-inside-first-northwest-passage-cruise.html

It costs minimum 22k per person. It should last 35 days. It starts in Alaska and ends in New York City. I could not find the exact dates of the cruise. The article mentions they will have an ice breaker escort and helicopters at the ready if needed.

Bob

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Looking like the best shot of rain coming up is next Wednesday timeframe with a cold front. Then it should cool down to seasonal or slightly below in that Fri-SUN period before we turn the heat back up. 

Its a desert pattern when .03" on the GFS makes the cut as the best shot of rain.

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Euro is now faster with the CFP, having meteorological fall start with no threat of the 90s.

Labor Day Weekend = :wub:

Later Labor Day Week = :angry:

Pcpn = th.jpg

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Euro is now faster with the CFP, having meteorological fall start with no threat of the 90s.

Labor Day Weekend = :wub:

Later Labor Day Week = :angry:

Pcpn = 

Still looking like wed-thurs best shot of precip on eps and euro op. Outside of that forget about it. On euro op it looks like thurs-sat with comfortable temps.. sunday and monday back into the 90s. EPS in agreement as well, though they may extend it to Sunday for the <90 temps. EPS already have 90 all labor day week, thats a pretty strong signal for some heat this far out. 

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51 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

enjoy

 

Cq3pekeWYAAoYrB.jpg

Cq3p_QjWEAArzWS.jpg

Also not seeing as much of a warm bias in longer ranges as we did during the summer. Not as if that helped us much during the summer anyway.  It looks like the GFS is slower, but gets there too.

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if there is something to look forward to its the Thurs-Sat period. Highs look to be in the upper 70s low 80s. Could actually pull out the 40s thread for lows. 

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On 8/27/2016 at 10:31 AM, tombo82685 said:

enjoy

 

Cq3pekeWYAAoYrB.jpg

Cq3p_QjWEAArzWS.jpg

I would not trust that from this far out, although I do think it will stay above normal from 40 S for awhile

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Well at least Labor Day weekend is looking great. EPS and euro don't build the warmth back in till Tuesday and on right now. So we get a break from Thursday-Monday

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15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Well at least Labor Day weekend is looking great. EPS and euro don't build the warmth back in till Tuesday and on right now. So we get a break from Thursday-Monday

EPS not following OP GFS with its forever lingering solution of TD9?

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

EPS not following OP GFS with its forever lingering solution of TD9?

the mean itself carries it out, but there are some that do linger it around. 

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still a very warm signal in the 8-15 day on the eps. Dominated by -pna and big east coast ridge. Still looks like a decent shot of some showers/storms late wednsday/thursday timeframe

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8 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

still a very warm signal in the 8-15 day on the eps. Dominated by -pna and big east coast ridge. Still looks like a decent shot of some showers/storms late wednsday/thursday timeframe

I kid you not, when I first read your post, I read it as snow showers, not some showers. Well 18z GFS has a pair of 100s forecast , which are probably good for 90.

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10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

we need some rain, because this pattern sucks

Just turned on the sprinklers this morning. Grass turning to straw in some areas and the tree's are probably what's causing it. 

 

Hopefully it isn't as a long stretch of dryness as we saw a month or so ago.

 

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28 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

we need some rain, because this pattern sucks

I would have responded sooner, but had to move our sprinklers.  Yes its been dry and without remnant or square in the jaw tropical systems this time of year it is often dry.  I know its better to plant grass seed in the fall than spring, but it never seems to rain and when it does, the seeds end up in Willingboro.

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One thing that I am seeing on the euro and now starting to trickle into the eps is degree of warmth next week. While last week it looked like we were setting up for another stretch of possibly 90 or better. The last couple of days the euro has remained pretty cool for next week. The main reason I am seeing is the surface high location. The op euro has the high location more northeast of us instead of south of us. This is important because instead of a southerly wind component, it would be more of an easterly flow, not as warm of a flow. We will see how this transpires during the week

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8 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

One thing that I am seeing on the euro and now starting to trickle into the eps is degree of warmth next week. While last week it looked like we were setting up for another stretch of possibly 90 or better. The last couple of days the euro has remained pretty cool for next week. The main reason I am seeing is the surface high location. The op euro has the high location more northeast of us instead of south of us. This is important because instead of a southerly wind component, it would be more of an easterly flow, not as warm of a flow. We will see how this transpires during the week

went the other way today. Whatever happens with the tropical system is going to play a role in how hot it gets next week I think. 12z euro had 90s mon-thurs. EPS like 90s tues-Fri.

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Really don't see much change in the pattern over us. It's dominated by a se ridge for the next couple weeks, so expect more above normal temps. I think this will be the last big heat wave. Phl proper may pull a string of 90,91 days, but for the majority of us I thnk this is the last of the sustained 90+.  With a ridge sitting over the west coast, it teleconnects to a trof in the plains and rige right on the east coast. Don't really see much in the way of big rain makers either. With this h5 setup all the waves of low pressure would ride to our north with the best dynamics too. 

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Fall analogs 1983,1995

Warm and dry September and October, flip in November to somewhat cooler and wetter. 

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Just now, Mitchg said:

Fall analogs 1983,1995

Warm and dry September and October, flip in November to somewhat cooler and wetter. 

- PNA's stink anytime of year. 

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8 hours ago, Mitchg said:

Fall analogs 1983,1995

Warm and dry September and October, flip in November to somewhat cooler and wetter. 

Warm October you say? ;) 

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