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Rainshadow

The GFS's Perpetual Run For The 100s In PHL Thread AKA The Thread That Will Not End

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GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

8/26/06z...............100F on 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/10)

8/28/18z...............100F on 9/8 (95) & 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/7  (91) )  (Would be latest 100 on record, well at

                            least we have mid 50s dew points predicted.  Good luck with that combo.

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

 

 

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4 (82)

8/22/00z on 9/6 (88)

8/23/06z on 9/2 (81) , 9/3 (80)  & 9/4 (82) (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6 (88), 9/7 (91) & 9/8 (95) (good luck with that one too)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (81) only off by 19 degrees within a week

8/26/12z on 9/8 (95)

8/28/12z on 9/8 (95)

8/30/12z on 9/8 (95)

8/31/00z on 9/9 & 9/10

9/1/00z on 9/8 (95) , 9/9, 9/10 & 9/11 (good luck with forecasting 4 consecutive defacto 100s in September)

9/1/18z on 9/10 & 9/11

9/2/00z on 9/11

9/2/06z on 9/9, 9/10 & 9/11

9/2/12z on 9/9

9/3/06z on 9/9

9/4/06z on 9/8 (95)

 At PHL:

Thru 9/8 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 38

Thru 9/8 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:   zero, nada, zip, 0.0

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GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31 (90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

8/26/06z...............100F on 9/9 (95)  (technique 100 on 9/10 (95) )

8/28/18z...............100F on 9/8 (95) & 9/9 (95) (technique 100 on 9/7  (91) )  (Would have been latest 100 on record)

 

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (97)

 

 

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4 (82)

8/22/00z on 9/6 (88)

8/23/06z on 9/2 (81) , 9/3 (80)  & 9/4 (82) 

8/23/18z on 9/6 (88), 9/7 (91) & 9/8 (95)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (81) only off by 19 degrees within a week

8/26/12z on 9/8 (95)

8/28/12z on 9/8 (95)

8/30/12z on 9/8 (95)

8/31/00z on 9/9 (95) & 9/10 (95)

9/1/00z on 9/8 (95), 9/9 (95), 9/10 (95) & 9/11 (85) (not much luck forecasting 4 consecutive defacto 100s in Sept)

9/1/18z on 9/10 (95) & 9/11 (85)

9/2/00z on 9/11 (85)

9/2/06z on 9/9 (95), 9/10 (95) & 9/11 (85)

9/2/12z on 9/9 (95)

9/3/06z on 9/9 (95)

9/4/06z on 9/8 (95)

 At PHL:

Thru 9/8 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 39

Thru 9/8 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:   Blutarsky, zero, nada, zip, 0.0

 

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12 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

lets put this thread to rest and start the march to below zero

I thought it was going to get put to rest in July, but the GFS has been the:

with predicting 100s.  Oh I am sure it will go to below zero mode this winter, right after the predicted 102 hours of consecutive snow ends. 

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