Jump to content

*** PLEASE REGISTER AND JOIN OUR DISCUSSION!!! ***

THE STAFF WANT YOU TO JOIN US AT PHILLYWX!!!

Register as a member today, and become part of the Delaware Valley weather community!

Our pro and seasoned amateur meteorologists, and weather enthusiasts from around the PA and NJ area together form a great group discussion, and we're asking folks that read our site today to register as members and post along with us!

Don't be intimidated if you're not an expert, ask questions if you're curious or want to build your knowledge!

Whether it's adding to our local profiles by reporting observations (and maybe becoming a SkyWarn Spotter!), or contributing more on the model interpretation side, we'd like you to join us in a constructive and insightful dialogue around all things Philly Weather!


Sign in to follow this  
Rainshadow

The GFS's Perpetual Run For The 100s In PHL Thread AKA The Thread That Will Not End

Recommended Posts

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  actual high 95

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (actual high 90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30 (actual high 88))

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95), 101F on 7/29 (actual high 88))

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (actual high 95))

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31(actual high 90) )

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (actual high 88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (actual high 90) )

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

 

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  actual high 95

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (actual high 90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30 (actual high 88))

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95), 101F on 7/29 (actual high 88))

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (actual high 95))

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31(actual high 90) )

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (actual high 88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (actual high 90) )

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

8/3/00z on 8/11

 

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  actual high 95

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (actual high 90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30 (actual high 88))

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2 (Actual High 84)   )

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95), 101F on 7/29 (actual high 88))

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (actual high 95))

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31(actual high 90) )

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (actual high 88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (actual high 90) )

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

8/3/00z on 8/11

8/4/00z on 8/11

8/5/06z on 8/19

 

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

 

Big time bust for today (8/5) coming...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89.

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  actual high 95

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (actual high 90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30 (actual high 88))

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2 (Actual High 84)   )

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95), 101F on 7/29 (actual high 88))

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (actual high 95))

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31(actual high 90 )

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (actual high 88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (actual high 90) )

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (actual high 85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5 (actual high 85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (actual high 85) morning dew point of 42 (well it was closer than the dew point). 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5 (actual high 85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (actual high 85) & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (actual high 85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

8/3/00z on 8/11

8/4/00z on 8/11

8/5/06z on 8/19

 

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Philly high today, 6th at least made it into the 90s.  18z run on the 6th has a technique 100 on golf outing day.

:(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) morning dew point of 42 (well it was closer than the dew point). 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  86 degree dew points, closer than the dew points 

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

8/3/00z on 8/11

8/4/00z on 8/11

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

 

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess we will know when the seasons change when the GFS goes from having its hottest temperature at day 15 (another technique 100 today), to its coldest.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) morning dew point of 42 (well it was closer than the dew point). 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  86 degree dew points, closer than the dew points 

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

8/3/00z on 8/11

8/4/00z on 8/11

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 & 8/22

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) morning dew point of 42 (well it was closer than the dew point). 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  86 degree dew points, closer than the dew points 

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

8/3/00z on 8/11

8/4/00z on 8/11

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 & 8/22

8/10/12z on 8/13 & 8/14

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) morning dew point of 42 (well it was closer than the dew point). 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  86 degree dew points, closer than the dew points 

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

8/3/00z on 8/11

8/4/00z on 8/11

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 & 8/22

8/10/12z on 8/13 & 8/14

8/11/00z on 8/14

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) morning dew point of 42 (well it was closer than the dew point). 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  86 degree dew points, closer than the dew points 

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 & 8/22

8/10/12z on 8/13 & 8/14

8/11/00z on 8/14

At PHL:

Thru 8/2 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/2 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) morning dew point of 42 (well it was closer than the dew point). 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  86 degree dew points, closer than the dew points 

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 & 8/22

8/10/12z on 8/13  (98) & 8/14

8/11/00z on 8/14

At PHL:

Thru 8/13 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/13 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 & 8/22

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

A couple of attempted 100(s)...96...for the end of August.

At PHL:

Thru 8/18 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/18 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:  0.0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19

8/6/18z on 8/20

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 & 8/22

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

A couple of attempted 100(s)...96...for the end of August.

At PHL:

Thru 8/18 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/18 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:  0.0

GFS running a bit "hot" with model forecasts huh?  Is the GFS model forecast more accurate for Europe than it is for U.S.? Seems the ECMWF is more aligned with what has actually happened in the U.S. 

Maybe we do a prisoner swap and send the GFS to Europe and bring the ECMWF to the U.S. and see what happens.  :bye:

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, cbelke said:

GFS running a bit "hot" with model forecasts huh?  Is the GFS model forecast more accurate for Europe than it is for U.S.? Seems the ECMWF is more aligned with what has actually happened in the U.S. 

Maybe we do a prisoner swap and send the GFS to Europe and bring the ECMWF to the U.S. and see what happens.  :bye:

 

 

Chris, 

At least for verification sites that are easily available, I have not seen Europe parsed out separately.  Interesting in the "PNA Region" the GFS has been number 2 the past month and overall NH it has crept closer to the UKMET leaving the lets catch 45 out of the last 17 tropical systems can ggem behind.  Tempwise, the GFS has the hottest at/near sfc bias that gets even hotter farther out in time:

biaspmean_T_G2NHX.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (brackets)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

A couple of attempted 100(s)...96...for the end of August.

At PHL:

Thru 8/21 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/21 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:  0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (bust)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (bust)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

 At PHL:

Thru 8/21 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/21 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:  0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

(IP: 72.73.251.90) · ·

 

On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

8/23/06z on 9/2, 9/3 & 9/4 (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6, 9/7 & 9/8 (good luck with that one too)

 At PHL:

Thru 8/23 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/23 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:  0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

8/23/06z on 9/2, 9/3 & 9/4 (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6, 9/7 & 9/8 (good luck with that one too)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (welcome to autumn, here is your defacto 100 degrees.)

 At PHL:

Thru 8/25 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 35

Thru 8/25 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:  0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

On 7/15/2016 at 8:41 AM, Rainshadow said:

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

8/26/06z...............100F on 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/10)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

8/23/06z on 9/2, 9/3 & 9/4 (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6, 9/7 & 9/8 (good luck with that one too)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (welcome to autumn, here is your defacto 100 degrees.)

8/26/12z on 9/8

 At PHL:

Thru 8/25 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 36

Thru 8/25 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:   zero, nada, zip, 0.0

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

8/26/06z...............100F on 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/10)

8/28/18z...............100F on 9/8 & 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/7)  (Would be latest 100 on record, well at

                            least we have mid 50s dew points predicted.  Good luck with that combo.

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

 

 

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

8/23/06z on 9/2, 9/3 & 9/4 (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6, 9/7 & 9/8 (good luck with that one too)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (welcome to autumn, here is your defacto 100 degrees.)

8/26/12z on 9/8

8/28/12z on 9/8

 At PHL:

Thru 8/28 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 38

Thru 8/28 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:   zero, nada, zip, 0.0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

8/26/06z...............100F on 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/10)

8/28/18z...............100F on 9/8 & 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/7)  (Would be latest 100 on record, well at

                            least we have mid 50s dew points predicted.  Good luck with that combo.

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

 

 

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

8/23/06z on 9/2, 9/3 & 9/4 (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6, 9/7 & 9/8 (good luck with that one too)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (welcome to autumn, here is your defacto 100 degrees.)

8/26/12z on 9/8

8/28/12z on 9/8

8/30/12z on 9/8

8/31/00z on 9/9 & 9/10

 At PHL:

Thru 8/31 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 38

Thru 8/31 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:   zero, nada, zip, 0.0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

8/26/06z...............100F on 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/10)

8/28/18z...............100F on 9/8 & 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/7)  (Would be latest 100 on record, well at

                            least we have mid 50s dew points predicted.  Good luck with that combo.

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

 

 

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

8/23/06z on 9/2, 9/3 & 9/4 (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6, 9/7 & 9/8 (good luck with that one too)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (81) only off by 19 degrees within a week

8/26/12z on 9/8

8/28/12z on 9/8

8/30/12z on 9/8

8/31/00z on 9/9 & 9/10

9/1/00z on 9/8, 9/9, 9/10 & 9/11 (good luck with forecasting 4 consecutive defacto 100s in September)

9/1/18z on 9/10 & 9/11

9/2/00z on 9/11

9/2/06z on 9/9, 9/10 & 9/11

 At PHL:

Thru 8/31 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 38

Thru 8/31 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:   zero, nada, zip, 0.0

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS For PHL....actual high temp for the day in (parentheses)

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 (96)

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 (84)

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 (89)

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (87), 103F on 7/21 (89),

                           101F on 7/22 (94), 100F on 7/23 (97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (89), 105F on 7/24 (95),

                           104F on 7/25 (97), 105F on 7/26 (92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 (95)

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  (95)

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (92)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (95), 7/25 (97)  & 7/27 (94)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (97)

7/16/06z...........all-time record tying 106F on 7/31 (90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95) & 7/30 (88)

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97)  & 7/24 (95)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (97) & 8/2 (84)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (97) & 7/24 (95), 101F on 7/29 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (95)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (95),  7/25 (97)  & 7/31(90)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (90)

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5 (85)

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 (91) & 102F on 8/7 (89)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5 (85) 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (97) , 8/6  (91) & 8/7 (89) )

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (91)

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (97) & 8/5 (85) )

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5  (85) & 8/6 (91)  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7 (89) )

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5 (85)

                             (technique 100 on 8/6 (91) )

8/2/18z...............102F on 8/14 (97)

                             (technique 100s on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98) ).

8/26/06z...............100F on 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/10)

8/28/18z...............100F on 9/8 & 9/9 (technique 100 on 9/7)  (Would be latest 100 on record, well at

                            least we have mid 50s dew points predicted.  Good luck with that combo.

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

 

 

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2 (84)

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4  (86)

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6 (91)

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5 (85)

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6 (91)

7/26/00z on 8/5 (85)

8/1/18z on 8/12 (97) & 8/13 (98)

8/2/06z on 8/11 (95)

8/3/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/4/00z on 8/11 (95)

8/5/06z on 8/19 (90)

8/6/18z on 8/20 (93)

8/7/12z on 8/22 (83)

8/8/12z on 8/21 (89) & 8/22 (83)

8/10/12z on 8/13 (98) & 8/14 (97)

8/11/00z on 8/14 (97)

8/20/12z on 9/4

8/22/00z on 9/6

8/23/06z on 9/2(81) , 9/3 (80)  & 9/4 (good luck with that)

8/23/18z on 9/6, 9/7 & 9/8 (good luck with that one too)

8/25/12z on 9/1 (81) only off by 19 degrees within a week

8/26/12z on 9/8

8/28/12z on 9/8

8/30/12z on 9/8

8/31/00z on 9/9 & 9/10

9/1/00z on 9/8, 9/9, 9/10 & 9/11 (good luck with forecasting 4 consecutive defacto 100s in September)

9/1/18z on 9/10 & 9/11

9/2/00z on 9/11

9/2/06z on 9/9, 9/10 & 9/11

9/2/12z on 9/9

9/3/06z on 9/9

9/4/06z on 9/8

 At PHL:

Thru 8/31 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 38

Thru 8/31 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

Number of times PHL hit 100 degrees:   zero, nada, zip, 0.0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...