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Rainshadow

The GFS's Perpetual Run For The 100s In PHL Thread AKA The Thread That Will Not End

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I get the impression the internet/social media part of the nook was an afterthought. Lousy editor and lousy autospellchecker, never knew conus should really be spelled co us.

18z gfs on 17th gives us a 102 on the 24th and 99 on the 23rd. 12z version 98 on the 23rd.

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20, 103F on 7/21, 101F on 7/22, 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21, 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (wrong)

7/8/06z (wrong)

7/8/12z on 7/20

7/9/00z on 7/22

7/9/12z on 7/22 & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20, 103F on 7/21, 101F on 7/22, 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21, 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1  (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

 

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (wrong)

7/8/06z (wrong)

7/8/12z on 7/20

7/9/00z on 7/22

7/9/12z on 7/22 & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

 

 

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20, 103F on 7/21, 101F on 7/22, 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21, 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1  (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

 

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20

7/9/00z on 7/22

7/9/12z on 7/22 & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21, 101F on 7/22, 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21, 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1  (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

 

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (13 degrees short).

7/9/00z on 7/22

7/9/12z on 7/22 & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

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Today's 12z run techique 100s on 7/23 & 8/4.

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20, 103F on 7/21, 101F on 7/22, 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21, 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20

7/9/00z on 7/22

7/9/12z on 7/22 & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 101F on 7/22, 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (13 degrees short)

7/9/00z on 7/22

7/9/12z on 7/22 & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25

7/21/12z on 7/23 & 8/4

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 101F on 7/22, 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (high of 87)

7/9/00z on 7/22

7/9/12z on 7/22 & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25

7/21/12z on 7/23 & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24, 7/25 & 8/6

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25

7/21/12z on 7/23 & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24, 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7 (technique 100s on 7/25 & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25

7/21/12z on 7/23 & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24, 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25

7/23/00z on 7/25 & 8/5

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7 (technique 100s on 7/25 & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42.  (technique 100s on 7/25, 8/6 & 8/7)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23, 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25

7/21/12z on 7/23 & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24, 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25

7/23/00z on 7/25 & 8/5

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24, 104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97))

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24, 7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7 (technique 100s on 7/25 & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42.  (technique 100s on 7/25, 8/6 & 8/7)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24, 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25

7/23/00z on 7/25 & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25

7/24/06z on 7/25

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25, 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24 (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24)

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95), (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24, 101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7 (technique 100s on 7/25 & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42.  (technique 100s on 7/25, 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6  (technique 100s on 7/25 & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points   (technique 100 on 8/7)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25, 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (95)  & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25, 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25

7/20/06z on 7/25 (95)

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25 (95)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25

7/23/00z on 7/25 & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25

7/24/06z on 7/25

7/24/12z on 7/25

7/25/00z on 8/6

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/25 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 33

Thru 7/25 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30

                           (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25(97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/25 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 33

Thru 7/25 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

 

Tom, the "River/Bay effect" has made the ECMWF right for the wrong reason...

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Rainshadow, on 15 Jul 2016 - 08:41 AM, said:snapback.png

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.
7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.
7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89
7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)
7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26
7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95
7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28
7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27)
7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)
7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)
7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30)
7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)
7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )
7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)
7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)
7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)
7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31)
7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30

                           (technique 100 on 7/31)
7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

EC For PHL
7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)
7/8/06z (nope)
7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)
7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)
7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)
7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 & 7/27
7/13/06z on 7/28
7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)
7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29
7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)
7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30
7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)
7/17/06z on 7/27
7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)
7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 & 8/2
7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)
7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)
7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)
7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)
7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31
7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25(97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)
7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/25 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 33

Thru 7/25 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

 

Tom, the "River/Bay effect" has made the ECMWF right for the wrong reason...

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Tony, thanks for this. Am trying to learn more about the models, if only to advance my own knowledge.

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Tony, thanks for this. Am trying to learn more about the models, if only to advance my own knowledge.

You are welcome. This new version of the GFS seems to have an extreme (hot) bias with 2m summer temps at longer ranges. The previous version had an extreme cold bias with 2m temps in the winter in PHL.

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When was the new GFS up and running (not in experimental mode)? In doing summer temperature forecasts, would you come up with something using a combination of models? Or if you were going with the GFS would you decrease the temp forecast accordingly.

 

A final question on 2m temps. As a non-pilot aviation enthusiast who goes flying when possible with some wonderful pilot friends, I know that the higher we go, the colder it is. There is a simple rule for this that pilots  use, but I don't quite recall. But there are the wind/temp at altitude that NWS Aviation Wx folk put out http://www.aviationweather.gov/windtemp

 

Does the same apply to your 2m temps, they will be a little lower than on the surface? Or are these temperature differentials between surface and 2m not that great.

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When was the new GFS up and running (not in experimental mode)? In doing summer temperature forecasts, would you come up with something using a combination of models? Or if you were going with the GFS would you decrease the temp forecast accordingly.

 

May 11th it started.  I prefer to add 10 or 11C to predicted 18z 925mb temps in the summer.  2m temps actually average too low in the nearer term, but have a warmer bias (as all of the models have had) in the longer term.  I dont know if this will hold, but the GEFS 2m temp guidance has looked better.  MOS products are suppose to take into consideration model biases, but their temps seem too swayed by the operational model run, not sure about predictors for max temps, but cloudiness seems to be overemphasized.

 

A final question on 2m temps. As a non-pilot aviation enthusiast who goes flying when possible with some wonderful pilot friends, I know that the higher we go, the colder it is. There is a simple rule for this that pilots  use, but I don't quite recall. But there are the wind/temp at altitude that NWS Aviation Wx folk put out http://www.aviationweather.gov/windtemp

 

Does the same apply to your 2m temps, they will be a little lower than on the surface? Or are these temperature differentials between surface and 2m not that great.

 

Air temps are measured above the ground surface, so 2m temps are suppose to be representative.

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27)

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30

                           (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/26 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 34

Thru 7/26 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

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Thanks Tony,

 

I just now had time to confirm that 2m heights refer to 2 meters AGL or about 6 feet. Perhaps posting too late to late (for me).   :blush:  :)

 

 

 

When was the new GFS up and running (not in experimental mode)? In doing summer temperature forecasts, would you come up with something using a combination of models? Or if you were going with the GFS would you decrease the temp forecast accordingly.

 

May 11th it started.  I prefer to add 10 or 11C to predicted 18z 925mb temps in the summer.  2m temps actually average too low in the nearer term, but have a warmer bias (as all of the models have had) in the longer term.  I dont know if this will hold, but the GEFS 2m temp guidance has looked better.  MOS products are suppose to take into consideration model biases, but their temps seem too swayed by the operational model run, not sure about predictors for max temps, but cloudiness seems to be overemphasized.

 

A final question on 2m temps. As a non-pilot aviation enthusiast who goes flying when possible with some wonderful pilot friends, I know that the higher we go, the colder it is. There is a simple rule for this that pilots  use, but I don't quite recall. But there are the wind/temp at altitude that NWS Aviation Wx folk put out http://www.aviationweather.gov/windtemp

 

Does the same apply to your 2m temps, they will be a little lower than on the surface? Or are these temperature differentials between surface and 2m not that great.

 

Air temps are measured above the ground surface, so 2m temps are suppose to be representative.

 

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30)

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           101F on 7/29 (technique 100 on 7/28)

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30

                           (technique 100 on 7/31)

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/26 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 34

Thru 7/26 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

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Rainshadow, on 15 Jul 2016 - 08:41 AM, said:snapback.png

GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.
7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.
7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89
7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)
7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)
7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  actual high 95
7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))
7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)
7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)
7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30)
7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)
7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )
7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)
7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95), 101F on 7/29

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (actual high 95))
7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)
7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31)
7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30

                           (technique 100 on 7/31)
7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

EC For PHL
7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)
7/8/06z (nope)
7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)
7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)
7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)
7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)
7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)
7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)
7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29
7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)
7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30
7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)
7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)
7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)
7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 & 8/2
7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)
7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)
7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)
7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)
7/20/18z on 7/30 & 7/31
7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)
7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/28 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 34

Thru 7/28 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  actual high 95

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (actual high 90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30 (actual high 88))

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95), 101F on 7/29

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (actual high 95))

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31)

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (actual high 89)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (actual high 90) )

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/28 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 34

Thru 7/28 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

 

Meteostar site has been down since Friday, no new updates available.

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GFS For PHL

6/29/00z..........100F on 7/14 actual high 96.

7/5/00z.............100F on 7/13 actual high 84.

7/7/12z.............100F on 7/21 actual high 89

7/10/12z...........100F on 7/20 (actual high 87), 103F on 7/21 (actual high 89),

                           101F on 7/22 (actual high 94), 100F on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/10/18z...........101F on 7/25  (actual high 97)

7/12/12z...........101F on 7/21 (actual high 89), 105F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           104F on 7/25 (actual high 97), 105F on 7/26 (actual high 92)

7/13/18z...........104F on 7/24 actual high 95

 

7/14/00z...........100F on 7/28  actual high 95

7/15/06z...........100F on 7/26 actual high 92

                           (technique 100s on 7/24  (actual high 95), 7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/27 (actual high 94))

7/15/12z...........100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/16/00z...........102F on 7/23 (925 rule would be 106F or 107F) (actual high 97)

7/16/06z...........106F on 7/31 (actual high 90)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95) & 7/30 (actual high 88))

 

7/17/18z...........102F on 7/24  (actual high 95)

                           (technique 100 on 7/23 (actual high 97)

7/18/00z...........102F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97)  & 7/24 (actual high 95) )

7/18/06z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95),

                           (technique 100s on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 8/2)

7/18/12z...........100F on 7/23 (actual high 97) & 7/24 (actual high 95), 101F on 7/29 (actual high 88))

                           (technique 100 on 7/28 (actual high 95))

7/18/18z...........100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/19/00z...........100F on 8/1 (Actual High 80)

                           (technique 100s on 7/24 (actual high 95),  7/25 (actual high 97)  & 7/31(actual high 90) )

7/20/12z...........100F on 7/30 (actual high 88)

                           (technique 100 on 7/31 (actual high 90) )

 

7/21/00z...........100F on 8/5

7/23/06z...........100F on 8/6 & 102F on 8/7

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5-with a 41 dew point)

7/23/12z............100F on 8/5, after a morning dew point of 42. 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25 (actual high 97) , 8/6 & 8/7)

7/24/18z............100F on 8/6 

                            (technique 100s on 7/25  (actual high 97) & 8/5)

7/25/06z............101F on 8/5 & 8/6 with 86 degree dew points  

                            (technique 100 on 8/7)

7/26/18z.............100F on 8/5

                             (technique 100 on 8/6)

EC For PHL

7/16/00z..............100F on 7/24 (actual high 95)

7/23/12z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

7/24/00z..............100F on 7/25 (actual high 97)

Starting with the 00z run on the 8th, these are GFS runs that had at least one 2m max temp forecast high as high as 97-99F which using SOP would translate into a forecast high of 100F or greater for PHL. We are not including the EC on this list.

7/8/00z (nope)

7/8/06z (nope)

7/8/12z on 7/20 (87)

7/9/00z on 7/22 (94)

7/9/12z on 7/22 (94) & 7/23 (97)

7/12/06z on 7/25 (97), 7/26 (92) & 7/27 (94)

7/13/06z on 7/28 (95)

7/14/06z on 7/23 (97)

7/14/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 7/29 (89)

7/14/18z on 7/24 (95)

7/15/00z on 7/23 (97)  & 7/30 (88)

7/17/00z on 7/23 (97)

7/17/06z on 7/27 (94)

7/17/12z on 7/23 (97)

7/19/06z on 7/25 (97) , 7/31 (90) & 8/2

7/19/12z on 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/19/18z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95) & 7/25 (97)

7/20/00z on 7/23 (97), 7/24 (95)  & 7/25 (97)

7/20/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/20/18z on 7/30 (88)  & 7/31 (90)

7/21/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/21/12z on 7/23 (97) & 8/4

7/22/06z on 7/24 (95), 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/12z on 7/25 (97)  & 8/6

7/22/18z on 7/25 (97)

7/23/00z on 7/25 (97) & 8/5

7/24/00z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/06z on 7/25 (97)

7/24/12z on 7/25 (97)

7/25/00z on 8/6

7/26/00z on 8/5

8/1/18z on 8/12 & 8/13

8/2/06z on 8/11

 

At PHL:

Thru 7/28 number of times the GFS has forecast 100 degrees or greater this summer:........... 34

Thru 7/28 number of times the ECMWF has forecast 100 degrees (none greater) this summer: 3

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