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Rainshadow

New GFS Coming To A Theatre Near You on May 11th (2016)..

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Previous GFS day 5 skill scores was in 5th place trailing the JMA. The new version of the GFS(X), we are in 5th place, trailing the JMA.

 

April 21-27 was very kind to modeling skills. After that, not so much...

 

post-27-0-95899000-1462997033.png

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With qpf output like this:

 

 post-27-0-01365000-1465072617.jpg

 

Its no wonder the current GFS has the worst verification skill scores as a decider between measurable and non-measurable pcpn of all these global models. 

 

post-27-0-55552600-1465072526.png

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I really hope there is improvement somewhere else, we have gone from let's forecast a 100 degree day somewhere to let's forecast nonstop rain. The 12z run on 7/28 has 27 consecutive and a second 42 consecutive hours of measurable rain at PHL in its first four days. Facepalm.

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I really hope there is improvement somewhere else, we have gone from let's forecast a 100 degree day somewhere to let's forecast nonstop rain. The 12z run on 7/28 has 27 consecutive and a second 42 consecutive hours of measurable rain at PHL in its first four days. Facepalm.

 

looking forward to it in winter when it forecasts 72 hrs straight of snow

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looking forward to it in winter when it forecasts 72 hrs straight of snow

Here's a preview from 18z/28th GFS: it will not stop raining from Saturday morning through Monday evening. 60 straight hours of funfilled predicted wetness. Enjoy.......

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looking forward to it in winter when it forecasts 72 hrs straight of snow

 

Hopefully you will see it snow out of the clear blue skies just like it will rain next week.  :o  This is 75 out of 84 hours or 25 out of 28 three hour segments with measurable rain starting Saturday.

 

post-27-0-98156500-1469792651.jpg

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I really hope there is improvement somewhere else, we have gone from let's forecast a 100 degree day somewhere to let's forecast nonstop rain. The 12z run on 7/28 has 27 consecutive and a second 42 consecutive hours of measurable rain at PHL in its first four days. Facepalm.

 

But if we did get 60 hours of rain it could end the drought. ;) Yeah, I know better be careful what I wish for . . .

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But if we did get 60 hours of rain it could end the drought. ;) Yeah, I know better be careful what I wish for . . .

 

You'll have to make it up on the backend ;) ;  the 27 consecutive hours of measurable rain in phase I was 9 hours of measurable rain spread over 16 hours.

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I really hope there is improvement somewhere else, we have gone from let's forecast a 100 degree day somewhere to let's forecast nonstop rain. The 12z run on 7/28 has 27 consecutive and a second 42 consecutive hours of measurable rain at PHL in its first four days. Facepalm.

 

Hopefully this will help in the longer term (~3 year development window), though they've gone a different direction than the Euro from a core model perspective. Physics package and data assimilation scheme still tbd...It's an ambitious overhaul, and like many large, complex scientific computing/modeling projects, it has the potential to deliver with a thud, but I'll stay glass-half-full...

 

Until then, we remain :unsure2: from run to run...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/07/27/the-weather-service-just-took-a-critical-first-step-in-creating-a-new-u-s-forecasting-model/

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Hopefully this will help in the longer term (~3 year development window), though they've gone a different direction than the Euro from a core model perspective. Physics package and data assimilation scheme still tbd...It's an ambitious overhaul, and like many large, complex scientific computing/modeling projects, it has the potential to deliver with a thud, but I'll stay glass-half-full...

 

Until then, we remain :unsure2: from run to run...

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/07/27/the-weather-service-just-took-a-critical-first-step-in-creating-a-new-u-s-forecasting-model/

I was reading article, saddest part is only emergency fixes of current gfs as efforts in next gen gfs. I don't know enough about models to comment on Dr. Mass's comments. What Dr. Uccelini says is true, there is a point where the information gets out in time to be usable. The EC has better "timing" in Europe that a more prolonged processing procedure can be used. Also the EC as far as I know is not supporting/providing the background initial conditions for other models.

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Its a good thing the dew point (purple box) only reaches the mid 50s and 850mb dew points (red box) remain below zero C.  Imagine how much additional pcpn would fall.

Untitled.jpg

As another aside, I dont know if I have ever seen 0C at 500mb observed or predicted before.  Love those Tallahassee (this is 06z/Sept 24th run) dew points too.

Untitled.jpg

 

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19 of the next 20 3hr segments (12z March 25th) according to the GFS will be wet.

Meanwhile, new nam not so much....

Capturec.thumb.JPG.50a2b68f2f75f76dd1c81aa984d94b41.JPG

BTW next gen GFS (at least the 06z version) is not as continuously wet.  It would be tougher to be wetter...

 

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

19 of the next 20 3hr segments (12z March 25th) according to the GFS will be wet.

Meanwhile, new nam not so much....

Capturec.thumb.JPG.50a2b68f2f75f76dd1c81aa984d94b41.JPG

BTW next gen GFS (at least the 06z version) is not as continuously wet.  It would be tougher to be wetter...

 

How long does it take to actually trust a model? Is the old model kept side by side with the new model?

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15 hours ago, cbelke said:

How long does it take to actually trust a model? Is the old model kept side by side with the new model?

I have read that there is general excitement about the new nam conus-wide.  Although improvements are not the same everywhere.  They (old vs new nam) were run in parallel for a while to compare and I believe one of the greatest improvements was with summer time convection, less of those flash flooding producing feedback bullseyes.

As for the gfs and the new gfs, its really the next gen gfs that should show recognizable improvements I believe sometime later in 2018.  For now we are stuck with pretty much what we have.  The next implementation later this spring from what I read is only a slight improvement. 

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The Sandy money cant come in to the GFS soon enough to get rid of these preposterous it is never going to stop raining runs it spews out every once in a while.  (12z 4/7/17)

Capture.JPGxxxx.thumb.JPG.7dc5b536c12c47557cc89c894bda25c4.JPG

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Worst global model skill scores for light precipitation events across the conus last month....      When it comes to bias, there's the Euro and then there is all the rest.

etsbis.G211RFCf24f24d31.20170331.png.93cca6a60e4dc55e94518906f1e6cfce.png

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