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irishbri74

Medium - long range tropics

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Here is the day 7 UKMET  (I have no idea what that tropical system track is):

 

Comes up from Jamaica land it looks like on ukmet. Goes over cuba and FL as an open wave then starts to deepen off FL coast and heads north into carolinas

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UKMET (I didn't look at old GFS) remains the most bullish of the models, but would be just a swell generator for us if track is close.

 

ecm2.2019082812.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

ukm2.2019082812.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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30 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

UKMET (I didn't look at old GFS) remains the most bullish of the models, but would be just a swell generator for us if track is close.

 

 

 

Yea that would get punted with Barney coming in from the west

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15 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Yea that would get punted with Barney coming in from the west

Still only the UKMET that is bullish and still a punt regardless.  Just dawned on me that that is the Chantal (from birth near NC) track also on there.   

ukm2.2019082700_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.png.a9037a538b2bd26bf77f1078d8466a29.png

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow said:

Still only the UKMET that is bullish and still a punt regardless.  Just dawned on me that that is the Chantal (from birth near NC) track also on there.   

ukm2.2019082700_120_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.png.a9037a538b2bd26bf77f1078d8466a29.png

Euro joined the UKMET.

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11 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Euro joined the UKMET.

In the Azores next week, so keep the charts coming.

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Eeee this has whiff all over it. Unless Barney slows and really deepens in plains, we punt 

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Erin or not, the models have converged first that it exists and second relatively weak and offshore.

e.JPG.1b732107fb650e72367db5df2e1e8c44.JPG

Models don't seem too hyper on Dorian either once it gets past the Lesser Antilles.

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On 8/13/2019 at 9:49 AM, tombo82685 said:

Outside of any Sahara dust potential, we should see an uptick in tropical convection heading towards last week of August and into start of September. MJO wave working it's way through from phase 8 into 1

You’re welcome 

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Every other day on lasts nights euro. Could have 4 or 5 named storms in next 10 days.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_fh0-240.gif

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Well neither the GGEM or EC have the man sized trof the GFS is predicting.  On this run it wasn't enough to turn the predicted tropical system anyway from the east coast.   06z run it was.  The UKMET which has been red hot with recognizing the systems are not just a model fantasy has a decent one going already at 168 hrs.

eew.JPG.8ee55cfaf8085b66de11813518490ba8.JPG

a.JPG.79aa2c4bb1cbaae77c3fefdf8f4bab31.JPG

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Still an eternity for a tropical system, but still there.  This might end up being Imelda as the models are hinting at a weaker(?) Humberto possible to form in the Gulf before this.

4545454545445445.JPG.f4a8f7eea31b02740656237e02d678c9.JPG

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34 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Euro goes a bit bonkers overnight 

 

Ukmet is similar till about the carolinas, but then gets punted with a trough coming through. 

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EPS are all over the place as one can imagine. Some do what the UKMET show with the punt. Others bring landfall along the east coast 

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21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Ukmet is similar till about the carolinas, but then gets punted with a trough coming through. 

Until this run, this had been a relatively weak Humberto going into the Gulf.  It is an understatement calling it just a "big" change from the 12z run yesterday.

Granted these are 12 hours apart, but you get the idea.  The UKMET for its part did have a landfalling tropical system going into the Southeast yesterday.

 

ecm2.2019091812.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

ecm2.2019091900.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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1 hour ago, susqushawn said:

Euro goes a bit bonkers overnight 

9ae8567b-d3b5-4978-88ac-111fb2b99d71.gif

It is just warming up in the bullpen for its false day 9 snow storms for the upcoming winter.

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There def is a window for east coast landfall as that is a robust WAR to its north/northeast. There seems to be a deep trough wanting to kick out of the west and come east. That would open punt door unless the trough is deep and can phase in this tropical system.  As of now I’m leaning against those deep pressure scenarios if it takes ukmet/euro track. That’s same track as Dorian and I would imagine the waters are still upwelled a bit 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

There def is a window for east coast landfall as that is a robust WAR to its north/northeast. There seems to be a deep trough wanting to kick out of the west and come east. That would open punt door unless the trough is deep and can phase in this tropical system.  As of now I’m leaning against those deep pressure scenarios if it takes ukmet/euro track. That’s same track as Dorian and I would imagine the waters are still upwelled a bit 

Wishcasting:  I'll go with the Euro being too slow/strong which first gives the ridge from the west time to build over it and then overintensifying it (ala Dorian with its over the top pressure drops off the SE coast) releases too much latent heat and over intensifies the ridging around it.  Thus the ridge bridge never forms with the Bermuda High.

Reality: At day 9 I have no clue and given that this is such a change from yesterday's runs, I would personally need two more sounding runs to establish a trend even to start.  I was looking more at the Imelda wannabe as an east coast threat vs Humberto wannabe all of a sudden ursurping the lime light.

Yeah there is a Dorian hangover in the ssta, but they are still unfortunately warm enough.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png.96ada2db138eefb0e5cb01db9c0b6f5d.png

 

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Wind wise that would suck for coastal location but for us on the euro it would just be a fall cold front passage with CAA winds on backside 

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