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irishbri74

Medium - long range tropics

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Hello all, long time lurker on some of the previous forums decided to chime in and see how it goes!!

Tropics are warming up with two areas of interest. One to the SE of the Bahamas which may not lead to much but has been given an orange medium designation by the NHC for further development out to sea and another area deep in the GoM which may develop later this week.

With El-Nino decaying, its possible we could be in for a more active season than first anticipated! 

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3 hours ago, PWAwx said:

Hello all, long time lurker on some of the previous forums decided to chime in and see how it goes!!

Tropics are warming up with two areas of interest. One to the SE of the Bahamas which may not lead to much but has been given an orange medium designation by the NHC for further development out to sea and another area deep in the GoM which may develop later this week.

With El-Nino decaying, its possible we could be in for a more active season than first anticipated! 

Yea I was going to say with recent forecasts of el nino not being as strong could be a bit more active in the tropics. 

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The MJO has been pretty active as it moves through the Pac. Most of the forecasts show a new impulse in the IO through the beginning of the month, and once that propagates, can be the nail in the coffin to the Nino.

That being said, ENSO phase states can have lag effects, so Nino-like tilt to the global environment may last for a while.

Enhanced E. Pac jet certainly a staple of that type of activity, which is what we are seeing. But we also currently have a pretty strong MJO wave moving eastward, so that explains that. Minimal upwelling of warm waters in the E. Pac. So the equatorial SSTs seem unaffected.

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