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irishbri74

Medium - long range tropics

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Almost reasonable.

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Followed by the traditional New Orleans hit.....

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Yes well aware of not using anything deterministic beyond day 9 or so and the idea of the Gulf being an active spot early in the tropical season is not unfounded either.  It is just too bad that intensity has to be sacrificed for track (its one or the other, but cant do both correctly), because for us it means the GFS just keeps on spewing 200 hrs of consecutive measurable pcpn here because of these overblown tropical connections.

GFS greatest "hits"

 

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As to "why", the GFS having the MJO "stuck" in phase 1 doesn't hurt having umpteen hurricanes in la la land.

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Verification track and intensity stats for 2017 hurricane season:

FSSE is the Florida State Super Ensemble, HCCA is another consensus modeling grouping.

 

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OP model runs minus the GFS are trying to get something going in the gulf next week. Moisture stream late next week into east. 

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Interesting how multiple models are definitely giving us something to watch for in the western Caribbean about a week out from now.

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5 hours ago, CyphaPSU said:

Interesting how multiple models are definitely giving us something to watch for in the western Caribbean about a week out from now.

I may eating crow (again) at least with the idea of something tropical (vs uberuberuber tropical) occurring around Memorial Day weekend. That being said ssta have been better for tropical initiation/support last several seasons.

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MJO looks favorable for it as well. EPS have a strong signal with this. Could be more flooding issues around Memorial day if it gets sucked north or a PRE occurs. 

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23 hours ago, Mitchg said:

MJO looks favorable for it as well. EPS have a strong signal with this. Could be more flooding issues around Memorial day if it gets sucked north or a PRE occurs. 

MJO is over the Indian Ocean, another GEFS fail of keeping it in Phase 1 forever.  This doesn't preclude something tropical from occurring as it is modeled in a favored climo developmental area, but the MJO is no longer helping/enhancing. 

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I know this is a mish mosh of different model run initialization times, but they mostly have something in the Gulf and no Category 6(s)...

 

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34 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Houston, make that Louisiana, we (would) have a problem....

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Too early for this stuff.

 

 

 

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Water temps are good, but there are other factors like shear over that environment

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Wind shear is always a problem at this time. Latest 24 hr forecast decreases the shear slightly on projected path of storm.

 

 

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Euro and some EPS members going for a subtropical storm next weekend making a Sandy type hook as well on the OP. 

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An uptick of EPS members showing a subtropical storm tracking along the coast or hooking inland early next week. Landfalls anywhere from the Carolinas to Cape cod.  A cluster in NJ/NYC area as well. 

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