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irishbri74

Medium - long range tropics

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Last couple frames seem likes it's heading WSW.   Water vapor shows a weakness of sorts from the low pressure out ahead Irma, almost an escape hatch, at least temporarily.  High is still pushing down.  Either way, agreement through the Bahamas is fairly solid, the trough evolution is still markedly variable which makes sense given the lead time.  Tough to be patient waiting for model agreement as a major hurricane bears down on the mainland while shredding the islands.

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Eps mean is right into Fl. Clustering goes through Cuba and someminto Gulf. Other cluster heading towards Carolinas. Only a handful supporting OP track. Eps mean is pretty close to ggem 12z track 

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Or both.

It looks like Jose has officially become a tropical storm. 

To my untrained eye, it appears to have formed farther south and west than Irma did, but a west-northwest movement is being reported. 

My question is, could Irma have any possible effect on this new storm? 

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On 9/5/2017 at 11:29 AM, mweav067 said:

Or both.

It looks like Jose has officially become a tropical storm. 

To my untrained eye, it appears to have formed farther south and west than Irma did, but a west-northwest movement is being reported. 

My question is, could Irma have any possible effect on this new storm? 

Oh yes, its circulation should make life difficult for Jose, especially if he comes too close.  Not sure if he's tracking over Irma churned waters.  

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

Oh yes, its circulation should make life difficult for Jose, especially if he comes too close.  Not sure if he's tracking over Irma churned waters.  

What kind of effects? 

Does Irma act like a blocker punting Jose out to sea and possibly right over Bermuda, or would it be more likely that Irma pulls Jose into the southeast US after it lifts out? 

I sincerely appreciate all the explanations you and everyone else here give, even if some of them are over my head sometimes.

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1 minute ago, mweav067 said:

What kind of effects? 

Does Irma act like a blocker punting Jose out to sea and possibly right over Bermuda, or would it be more likely that Irma pulls Jose into the southeast US after it lifts out? 

I sincerely appreciate all the explanations you and everyone else here give, even if some of them are over my head sometimes.

First it disrupts its inflow/outflow channels.  I dont know about the punt part. At least for today looks like Jose gets blocked by the ridge and then moves off to the northeast when Irma erodes it.  As for it impacting Bermuda, its a small island. Can't say it wont, but I wouldn't say its looking down the barrel of a cannon as South Carolina is now.

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From Sam Lillo's twitter. With 3 current hurricanes, 2017 is quickly filling up the list

ace91718.jpg

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I'm confused - this evening's NHC track forecast for Jose shows a recurvature on Mon/Tue beginning at a longitude not all that far west of Bermuda, and the NHC discussion talks about the track forecast being close to the Euro:

b996d9c1d98b51d3fcc0baa66afb526f.png

But the Euro shows a tropical system further to the south and west as late as Sunday morning the 17th:

6a3663c7f10fc1873791d36d29bf834d.png

Is this Jose? Or some other system? It sure looks like Jose, as it comes into the frame on the Euro on the morning of the 11th (although it looks strangely weak at that time). And then hangs around and strengthens throughout the week.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow said:

As if I didnt hate this hurricane season already....

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_20.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

 

 

I see a front sliding East through the Ohio Valley that will be our saving grace.  Fingers crossed anyway.

 

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