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irishbri74

Medium - long range tropics

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Emperical wave propagation chart.. .5  month running from june 15th-July 25th....

this is just 1 product, not a forecast. Looks like maybe a more favorable state in the Atlantic come July for a brief period?

ewp.gif


The shear in the Lower Atlantic Basin is pretty rough right now. Homebrew might be out best shot this year if this keeps up over the tropical Atlantic & Carribean:

wg8sht.GIF

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Watching for some subtropical nonsense over the Bahamas this weekend, maybe pushing across FL into the Gulf early next week

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Watching for some subtropical nonsense over the Bahamas this weekend, maybe pushing across FL into the Gulf early next week

Still there in the models, but much weaker

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Still there in the models, but much weaker

monsoonal shenanigans or actually a wave that came off Africa at some point?

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Adam, I saw a picture yesterday on twitter about the dust from Africa is like in the gulph and all over the zone where topical systems form. Is that right? I'm assuming thats not good for any sort of development?

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monsoonal shenanigans or actually a wave that came off Africa at some point?

No, it's actually the tail end of the front that will move through here tomorrow/Thursday. You get some wave breaking at the tail end and SSTs are warm enough to support convection. But it would clearly be subtropical - at best - if it formed.

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Adam, I saw a picture yesterday on twitter about the dust from Africa is like in the gulph and all over the zone where topical systems form. Is that right? I'm assuming thats not good for any sort of development?

The SAL is going bonkers over the East Atlantic, as it's supposed to this time of year. The Western Atlantic has been unusually stable, but not sure if it is SAL related or not.

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The SAL is going bonkers over the East Atlantic, as it's supposed to this time of year. The Western Atlantic has been unusually stable, but not sure if it is SAL related or not.

splitE.jpg

And shear in the ATL:

wg8sht.GIF

Here's a question for you Adam. What level does the SAL cover? usually lower altitudes? or is it dependent on pressures and such? 

 

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Here's a question for you Adam. What level does the SAL cover? usually lower altitudes? or is it dependent on pressures and such? 

 

Mid-levels. Generally 700-500mb, but can go as high as 300mb.

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Mid-levels. Generally 700-500mb, but can go as high as 300mb.

So with it being in those levels the dry air reduces thunderstorm development?

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So with it being in those levels the dry air reduces thunderstorm development?

Yup. It's actually not as much the dry air, but an elevated mixed layer that caps any convection

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Adam, 0z euro last night, is that a tropical system or just strong noreaster in day 8-10 range.

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Looks baroclinic to me. Might be transitioning right at 240.

Was that the system you were referring to from the Bahamas area? Or is it just a fantasy land gfs lets make every storm into a tropical system ordeal?

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Was that the system you were referring to from the Bahamas area? Or is it just a fantasy land gfs lets make every storm into a tropical system ordeal?

Same one. In the Euro, it starts over the Carolinas this weekend, heads south toward Florida, gets picked up by the front Thursday, then rides the boundary through the weekend. Looks convectively active off the East Coast on D10.

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Watching for some subtropical nonsense over the Bahamas this weekend, maybe pushing across FL into the Gulf early next week

Another pretty solid call

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Just good for thought. The streak continues...

The last "major", category 3 or higher, hurricane to hit the US was Wilma , October 2005. That's some 8 years, 9 months roughly. Pretty incredible streak. This is strictly based on storm category on the S-S scale.

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Getting ready to head into Cape Verde season come August... Nothing looks promising as far as favorable conditions go.

post-52-0-81466700-1406559466.jpg

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Justified?

 I would imagine if it is justified and some what of a WAR presence that it could be an east coast threat? 

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