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famartin

Storm threat Feb 15-17 (PD 3? eh, probably not)

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Temps are frigid and I have a hard time believing that low level cold is pushed out as quickly as progged. Skin temps at least will probably hang on a bit longer, hence the ice threat. 

 

Anyone know what soil temps are across the region?

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I am currently down just south of Washington DC.

I was under the impression this would be hitting closer to Monday night or Tuesday.

So the question I need to ask, if I may, is whether I should drive home tonight or if we can get away with leaving at 9 AM tomorrow and be okay?

Thanks.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk

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I am currently down just south of Washington DC.

I was under the impression this would be hitting closer to Monday night or Tuesday.

So the question I need to ask, if I may, is whether I should drive home tonight or if we can get away with leaving at 9 AM tomorrow and be okay?

Thanks.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk

I'd drive home now snow will have started in DC well before 9 am and it will get slick real quick. That and DC snowy rush hours are horrid.

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I am currently down just south of Washington DC.

I was under the impression this would be hitting closer to Monday night or Tuesday.

So the question I need to ask, if I may, is whether I should drive home tonight or if we can get away with leaving at 9 AM tomorrow and be okay?

Thanks.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk

Leave now. It will be snowing before dawn here.

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sref plumes for phl is 1.3  general 1.5-2 for the rest of the burbs on them...dc big winners with 4-5" mean

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HRRR dries out that "first wave" of precip.

Keeps us pretty dry through end of run.

Nam doesn't get precip here till 10-11am. Could save rush hour.

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Soil temps aren't going to make a difference with this event, cold as the ground. Let's say we get a snow 10 days from now, warm soil temps could lower ratios a bit then.

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HRRR dries out that "first wave" of precip.

Keeps us pretty dry through end of run.

Nam doesn't get precip here till 10-11am. Could save rush hour.

 

NAM cut back at 00z to 1-2" similar to the other models

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The rgem looks a little heavier than nam. Looks like most of the precip falls after lunch. Evening rush could be pretty bad

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Do either of them keep it below freezing longer than earlier runs?

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Do either of them keep it below freezing longer than earlier runs?

Not much change - SE PA goes above freezing from 8PM to midnight.

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Latest HRRR:

Totals:

e432e47ecc077166f6cc2482b0db8a60.jpg

By then, or closer to 6pm, we're entering an icy period;

698482f9e6448b366240fdf0cfe4ab7c.jpg

Here's forecasted temps at this point .

220b212f04c311f3848eda251142a0cf.jpg

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Here's the end of run soundings for PHL & KRDG (roughly)

KPHL

249f9c51a23b411571cb30f363fcd0e8.jpg

KRDG

ece5e7eec0b4ac0c3c28e802dd7c1fe2.jpg

Philly is close to zr, RDG is icing up pretty decently. I will add, that there is 4 hour prior to this is when the zr is to start. No IP here on these soundings.

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Saving grace here, especially for NE burbs is the initial snowfall. Always better to have snow then Ice, and not the other way around.

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Posted it in the wrong thread but the 12z NAM flips philly metro to plain rain around 00z, holds the ice N/W of the city through 3-5z for most.

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Looking back at the four model runs that have covered the entire event, they have been pretty rock steady about an inch or two of snow for PHL before the transition to non snow.

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HRRR not doing its best job...

This is northern DC:

2e47006ee001dfee2a2da27f8018e0d5.jpg

And this is what the snow trial through this evening on latest HRRR is:79f2241fcc4f2bedabd479586dd5a31c.jpg

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Its the December 2013 Philly Eagles event just displaced farther to the south.  That one the hrrr did nail it (albeit near hour zero).

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What is estimated window of freezing rain in Montgomery County? Are folks here at my office better off leaving before the rush hour, or is it better to wait until later after the rush when the changeover to plain rain is complete?

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What is estimated window of freezing rain in Montgomery County? Are folks here at my office better off leaving before the rush hour, or is it better to wait until later after the rush when the changeover to plain rain is complete?

Jim, northern Montgomery could hold onto the ice threat towards midnight possibly. Better to safe than sorry. Good luck with the call.

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Jim, northern Montgomery could hold onto the ice threat towards midnight possibly. Better to safe than sorry. Good luck with the call.

Thanks very much! I try to avoid IMBY questions but I have a group of 25 here and while I don't have the authority to "officially close the office" I can let my group leave early so this is one time that a hyper-local forecast can really help. Sounds like I am justified in encouraging them to leave early, once the rain starts it could be freezing rain for awhile...

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Thanks very much! I try to avoid IMBY questions but I have a group of 25 here and while I don't have the authority to "officially close the office" I can let my group leave early so this is one time that a hyper-local forecast can really help. Sounds like I am justified in encouraging them to leave early, once the rain starts it could be freezing rain for awhile...

Jim I just posted to Tom that the LAPS statistical guidance does not get Pottstown to freezing until 1030 pm this evening and that time is slipping forward (deeper into the night).

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