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January 22nd-23rd East Coast Winter Storm Model Discussion Part II.

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Ray, thoughts for Philly area? Also, will this be the most snow you've ever experienced? 

 

Question, when was last time Philadelphia actually recorded LEGIT Blizzard conditions?

 

I had 10-20 for Trenton but that might be a little low, I'll wait for the EC to make a change.  *not official*

 

If we get over 2' here it will be the biggest, up to now biggest was 24.2" in 96.

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Correct--true definition blizzard conditions have only verified at PHL in 1996.

 

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-RegionalSurfaceObservations.html

 

Even in 1993, only WSW and High Wind Warnings were issued.

That said, 93 was a blizzard at PHL too.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KPHL/1993/3/13/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA&theprefset=SHOWMETAR&theprefvalue=1

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Whoeve's outside that deform band will be crying

 

Might only be the difference between 18" and "holy sweet baby Jesus..."

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hr 18 lgt to mod snow from ptws to ttn on south to m/d line...m/d line south mod to heavy

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hr 24 mod snow lv down to upper bucks and montco..mod to heavy ptw-dyl-blm down to tpk. heavy snow tpk snow

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EURO actually looked better @ H5, only difference is it doesn't have the crazy QPF in the CCB region like the GFS/NAM have tomorrow. It still has mod/heavy snow, but nothing like GFS

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hr 30, mod to heavy snow nw burbs into lv also mommouth co region..phl gets a little dry slot.

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hr 36 nyc-mommouth county area getting hit hard.. mod snow for everyone north of m/d line... little dry slot over delmarva

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basically 12" starts at allentown, then rest of area is 12-18..mommouth and ocean county 20-22

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From Am wx

 

DCA 2.2

BWI 2.0

IAD 2.6

OKV 2.7

MRB 2.3

JYO 2.7

FDK 2.4

Balt city 2.0

Westminster 2.2

EZF 2.3

Annapolis 1.9

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btw, snow is moving in quicker on hourly models. might be into phl by 5/6 pm

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any thoughts with "what could go wrong" just wondering....

 

I am not predicting this, but am just answering your question...

 

1. We could get tstms in the warm sector to the east of the low that "steals" moisture and blocks the flow of moisture into the system.

2. The models are wrong and the system moves out to sea much faster that expected.

3. More warm air moves inland than expected.

4. The very heavy snow stays to the south (opposite of number 3)

 

Again, I do not expect any of the above.

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My biggest question for Philly will be around 15-19z if Philly gets dry slotted and how strong the banding/radar looks. If a band sets up shop somewhere that already got good WAA snows, they'll get 20+ easy 

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Can we get an idea of how heavy it will be at onset based on how it hits DC? Coming in hard at 5 or 6pm could be a big problem for Philly.

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