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January 22nd-23rd East Coast Winter Storm Model Discussion Part II.

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How is this thing modeled to compare with the all-time greats in terms of low pressure?

 

Not that low.  Its more about the pressure gradient with the high over eastern Canada. 

 

With that its really good night!

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00z GEFS look good - most areas are slightly better than 18z.

 

With that I am also going to say goodnight

 

Have an image?  Not on Tropical Tidbits yet.

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I was sorta skeptical about this storm for the region around PHL 2 days ago even though the models did show it coming. However, after watching the last several runs of different models, I am now a believer. I orginally was thinking, a storm moving offshore near ORF and heading ENE out to sea, how do we get the high pcpn amounts fcst. Now I can see how it happens.

 

One thing I like to look at is model dynamics and support for heavy pcpn that may be forecast. In another words, the why of the model, not just what the model is forecasting. 

 

After looking at the latest NAM and GFS, First, we are forecast to have pcp water values over phl of 6 to 7 tenths of an inch. For wintertime, this is decent. Also, I see good support for the 12 inch plus forecast and even 18 inches like is being forecasted. Soundings are looking like there is some instability aloft, although weak, but with the strong winds and lift, I would also expect some crosswise instability as well (I hope I got the term correct) but do not have any maps to see this.

 

However, with strong lift that will occur and after looking at the winds aloft showing strong divergence aloft too, this combination should line up and allow snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour and maybe even a bit more underneath any areas with convective banding and possible thundersnows.

The elevated instability has been present for the last few days now. I would think best chance for thundersnow is right before any dry slot. Frontogensis on the NAM is still present for a strong banding signature, given the lackluster run it had the location of it isn't important still as Tony stated earlier. 

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The elevated instability has been present for the last few days now. I would think best chance for thundersnow is right before any dry slot. Frontogensis on the NAM is still present for a strong banding signature, given the lackluster run it had the location of it isn't important still as Tony stated earlier. 

 

The instability could be with a dry slot, but many times it is with the strongest waa as colder air continues to move in or develop aloft. Are you able to see any of the diagonal or cross wise instability in any of your procedures?

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Have an image?  Not on Tropical Tidbits yet.

looking at the indiv, I can't see how they would be better than 0z for places further north..along tpk and south they look better.

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The instability could be with a dry slot, but many times it is with the strongest waa as colder air continues to move in or develop aloft. Are you able to see any of the diagonal or cross wise instability in any of your procedures?

I'm at home now. I do have a procedure for it though. I'm sure Tony still has a couple to that haven't been wiped out yet. NAM has the best looking instability around 12z SAT on soundings. This comes in with the

 southern edge of WAA thump. GFS looks like around 15Z. 

nam-hires_conus_036_sim_reflectivity.gif

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the euro isn't as closed up with the energy in the deep south as 12z, and it's a little north as heisenberg stated

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the euro isn't as closed up with the energy in the deep south as 12z, and it's a little north as heisenberg stated

Not to much different from what we've seen tonight so far at 12 at 500 mb. 

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SV is stuck @ 15 for me, anyone have it beyond that yet? 

lol it's stuck for me too

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Ugh, check out the low @ all heights, it is much farther N too! ugh this is so frustrating lol

consipiracy at ecmwf

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Overall, I think the jackpot will be other on the southern edge of the WAA thump which then is the same band pivots around as the CCB. A lot of potential and a chance to max out that elevated instability for a fair portion of the storm. Right now PHL looks good. 

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Yeah EuroWX is stuck at hour 12

 

If StormVista and EuroWX and the NWS are all stuck, it's an issue at ECMWF, and I doubt anyone on AMWX actually has that data ^

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You at the office, or just using a regular site like the rest of us?

using wxbell at home. we're all stuck. 

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Yeah EuroWX is stuck at hour 12

 

If StormVista and EuroWX and the NWS are all stuck, it's an issue at ECMWF, and I doubt anyone on AMWX actually has that data ^

it's out on tidbits though

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