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Rainshadow

January 22nd-23rd East Coast Winter Storm Model Discussion.

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Let's not get hyped up on a single snow forecast totals. 20" one run isn't going to be 20" the next. Just worry about the General qpf and its orientation. Totals will work themselves out.

 

I am easily hyped lol.

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Watches just coming out out now from Mt. holly

Yep..

Just got my text!!

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Are we a little early on these watches...being this far out.

 

The criteria is 48 hours, no?  With the general speeding-up trend, precip (at least the leading edges) should start moving into the area late Friday afternoon.  

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Are we a little early on these watches...being this far out.

I think they are well timed, just over 48 hrs in advance. They are watches, not warnings.

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Are we a little early on these watches...being this far out.

 

Confidence factor involved in the decision also.  Basically this is one forecast period sooner than your average winter storm. But this does not look like your average winter storm.

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Quick question - the NWS discussion says that the snow may start as dry and fluffy but will get wetter and heavier.  Isn't it usually the opposite?  Once the storm passes the winds turn around to the north?

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Quick question - the NWS discussion says that the snow may start as dry and fluffy but will get wetter and heavier. Isn't it usually the opposite? Once the storm passes the winds turn around to the north?

Not always. But with these big wrapped up lows, we'll see WAA (Warner air moving in), and you get heavier type snows

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

321 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...A MAJOR STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO

SUNDAY...

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>023-026-027-PAZ060-070-

071-101>104-106-211000-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1500Z/

NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-

CAROLINE-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-

CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-

SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-

EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...

ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...

PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...

MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...

CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...

READING...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...

WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...

NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN

321 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY

MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHERN NEW

  JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND MARYLAND`S UPPER EASTERN SHORE.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 16 INCHES IN THE

  VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...8 TO 12 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN

  SUBURBS OF PHILADELPHIA...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...AND CENTRAL

  DELMARVA. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER

  SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA WHERE A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS

  EXPECTED DURING THE EVENT.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY EVENING...PRIMARILY

  AFTER THE EVENING COMMUTE...THEN CONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO

  SUNDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH INLAND WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

  NORTHEAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH CLOSER TO

  THE COAST.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 30S.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY BE DRY AND PUFFY AT THE START, BUT WILL

  BECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAY BE

  PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAY CLING TO

  WIRES AND TREES WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ROADS WILL

  BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING ACCUMULATION DURING THE

  EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO

EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST

EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

 

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EVERYONE.......

As we get closer to the event, let's keep the banter in the banter thread. We do our best to keep the information on these threads strictly informative. I know it's easy to engage in a side conversation,( I'm guilty of it to). But let's keep it to a minimum. Mod team will be enforcing stricter rules. Thank you all for your cooperation.

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Not always. But with these big wrapped up lows, we'll see WAA (Warner air moving in), and you get heavier type snows

Thanks - one more quick one.  For a blizzard, do we need three hours of sustained 35 mph winds or is it gusts over 35 mph?

 

Sorry - just saw the banter post - you can move this!

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Thanks - one more quick one.  For a blizzard, do we need three hours of sustained 35 mph winds or is it gusts over 35 mph?

 

Sorry - just saw the banter post - you can move this!

Nah, this is a perfectly reasonable question to ask here

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Got my watch text too! Woo hoo, here we go, can't wait!

I always make fun of people that run to the grocery store before every storm, but I just made a list for my wife and sent her out :) Looking forward to hunkering down for the duration and enjoying the drama. Have plenty of beer, wine and spirits already! :) Just hope we don't lose power...

Sorry for OT post but where else to put it, too soon for the obs/banter thread!

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm only quoting this because Jim mentioned it in his post, but this is an example of something that go in the new banter thread

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Thanks - one more quick one. For a blizzard, do we need three hours of sustained 35 mph winds or is it gusts over 35 mph?

Sorry - just saw the banter post - you can move this!

This kind of post is fine.

From

NOAA's glossary:

Blizzard

(abbrev. BLZD)- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:

Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and

Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)

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The NWS will probably adjust the watches around once there's a better handle on rain/snow/sleet line setups. It's pretty clear that DC is all snow and going to jackpot and deal with gusty winds. It's not so clear cut for parts of the area *yet* (although if tonight's modeling keeps the same tune up, you'll probably see blizzard watches in some spots).

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EVERYONE.......

As we get closer to the event, let's keep the banter in the banter thread. We do our best to keep the information on these threads strictly informative. I know it's easy to engage in a side conversation,( I'm guilty of it to). But let's keep it to a minimum. Mod team will be enforcing stricter rules. Thank you all for your cooperation.

Sorry guys, just got a little too excited there...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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the eps individuals have 2 camps. One is the more tucked/captured look over va tidewater/ mouth of ches bay. The other camp is a more progressive camp that passes in between orf and hse and then out. 

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Where is the northern cutoff with the progressive camp? Where does op fall compared to eps?

the eps individuals have 2 camps. One is the more tucked/captured look over va tidewater/ mouth of ches bay. The other camp is a more progressive camp that passes in between orf and hse and then out.

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