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chescopawxman

Private Professional MET Thoughts

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30 minutes ago, Feb said:

DT already honking two possible windows. 11/30- 12/1 and 12/6 - 12/7

That second window is very close to the infamous Dec. 5.  Book it! 😉

But seriously, this pattern definitely seems ripe for more action in that time frame.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

2013/14 has an aleutian trough too. Generally in my eyes if you have a big trough just off Japan looking at wavelengths that would put a trough right into the west coast like next week

Composite Plot

JB harped about it when he started Accuwx Pro and it always seems to work to my recollection.  I think it's related to the recurving typhoons.  They recurve due to the trough. But that's just a wag.

Ps: Don't dare anyone look at the 18z Fv3 GFS for nyd......I said don't look!!!!

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JB talks about rule whereever thunder occurs in winter, it snows 10 days later....

Enhanced threat of severe here in ORL, 1-2" hail, tornadoes tomorrow late afternoon.    Swell, I have a 4:32 flight....

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From JB today on the potential ride of the 4 horseman....

1) Analogs. In each winter analoged from back in August, it was darkest before the dawn. 2002-2003 has been shown so many times one has to have it memorized. 2006-2007 There was virtually no winter through mid-January then Feb turned out to be one of the coldest winters on record in the midwest, The snow was lacking in the east that year, with the only notable storm the "jet blue" storm, where a forecasted change to rain and a rise to 40 degrees turned into 25 and 4-8 inches of sleet, forcing a Jet Blue plane to sit on a runway in NY for 8 hours or so waiting for the thaw to take off

2009-2010. The major pre-Christmas Snowstorm masked what could have been a debacle, If it were 200-300 miles further south and a week earlier it would have been like this month, As it is, the day after Christmas a huge thaw wiped the snow out in many places while a blizzard blasted the plains ( sound familiar) the 10 days of blow torch in mid Jan had winter given up for dead, but then snowmeggedon developed, and all was forgotten

14-15 After a frigid November Winter disappeared for 40 days ( this year it’s more like 20 as the warmth spread in mid Dec) but in 2014 it was all month and well into Jan. Anyone recall the Patriots playoff game Jan 17? ( Deflateogate) upper 40s and rain. Then waht happened

So, if it happens as I think the precedent is certainly their form chosen analogs

Stratwarm

This is dramatic and real, My take is this initiates the step down period, but looking for "the polar vortex" as was pushed across the media back on Dec 18 for late in Dec or early in Jan we did not agree with, The research I have done says the coldest hits 30-45 days after which would put us in the Jan 15-Feb 14 period as to when to look for this The 3 samples are impressive from late December, resulting in the severe periods in 1966,1985,1994

2004 did not have this stratwarm

MJO antics, this looks like it’s for real. lack of coupling so far between the ONI el nino and the SOI, if coupled later is likely to add to the situation. Right now, the pattern is such that it looks like the fight between the MJO La nina and el nino signals, if resolved to the el nino in both, then the likely result if it stays active is deep cold

Modoki/sst

The warm ring is still there, the Modoki look is still there. Late starting ONI el Nino winters have all had major 30-45 days cold and/or snowy periods for the US.

While there are other factors and counter factors, it’s my take that its quite rare when all 4 of these are on the field, If they come together, then we will not have been cold enough as 10-20 days can not only wipe out a warmer average but send it into the tank, Let’s keep in mind that in 1977-1978 winter it was close to 15 below normal FOR 3 MONTHS in parts of the Midwest. Such cold is inconceivable to most forecasters now as they are much younger, and even the old-timers look back in awe. But the question is, is it something that can no longer happen. It will be interesting to see what the answer is from the atmosphere, our winter idea with the core of -5 was looked at as very bold, and given sentiment now, many have dismissed it, I still feel it’s the mid ground of options , the most extreme one being if the 4 horsemen ride. If they do, it’s not like it was not there to see

 

 

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JB update - he is a little concerned but could it be "delayed but not denied"...LOL

 

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He does remain confident but models concern him as they are not following his ideas - he did say today on his video that delayed is a bust! 

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Latest from JB at WB on our southern slider....

The GFS is likely getting into its handoff to quick to the northern branch mode it likes to get into 4 days out, So we see it collapsing heights over the lakes and Ohio Valley at 84 hours.) or handing off to the northern branch) This looks to be an error to me, but perhaps this is the time it is right, But there are no changes in my thinking right now I think the Euro/NAM blend will be the best way to proceed going forward and there is no change in our ideas on the storm this weekend, I don't think this is a big deal for NYC ( 2-4) and think its 4-8 around DC for instance. Quite frankly this map shows what I think is coming, more or less, Euro 72 hour snow totals ending Monday morning There are some edge considerations but I dont expect a shift north to the experimental GFS at 06z But I dont think there is that much suppression either

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JB holding to the end - as always his North bias is a weakness which I think he knows he has but can't help it

As far as the storm, no changes, as always I wait for it to get into the plains to change ideas as I see too many of these go all over the place and if I am to bust, would rather just bust once. But the explanation on this a couple of days ago with the northern snow coming out still looks good to me, That tends to hold together with 20 to 30 to 1 ratio near -8C While its going to be a nice storm from St Louis to the Delmarva ( I think) the real value of it to me is it is a sign of the times.. and that time is for it get cold and stay cold with repetitive snow threats evolving along with stronger cold shots

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JB with no changes to his forecast from Tuesday - still thinks the snow stays together better right to the coast and north a bit. He thinks 3" to 6" from MDT to ACY with 4" to 8" south of there through DCA....

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JB still keeping an eye on the weekend early week event - says although modeling not there yet - he thinks something will come out of gulf and could be "spectacular"....

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15 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

JB still keeping an eye on the weekend early week event - says although modeling not there yet - he thinks something will come out of gulf and could be "spectacular"....

Well in that case consider the threat dead.  

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56 minutes ago, Baseball0618 said:

Well in that case consider the threat dead.  

LOL!!

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