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chescopawxman

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Bastardi must be frustrated because he has been calling for epic cold in February. If he turns out to be incorrect this would be the second winter in a row he has gotten seriously wrong. I'm not knocking the guy he knows 1000X more than me about winter weather but I may have to stop taking his word as gospel when it comes to winter predictions if he gets another one this wrong. 

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2 minutes ago, Jurassic Wanderer said:

Bastardi must be frustrated because he has been calling for epic cold in February. If he turns out to be incorrect this would be the second winter in a row he has gotten seriously wrong. I'm not knocking the guy he knows 1000X more than me about winter weather but I may have to stop taking his word as gospel when it comes to winter predictions if he gets another one this wrong. 

He will sugar coat it into somehow he was right eventhough he played the cold card full bore for this month. His clients like extreme temps either way because energy costs go up. 

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4 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

He will sugar coat it into somehow he was right eventhough he played the cold card full bore for this month. His clients like extreme temps either way because energy costs go up. 

I am beginning to realize how important a factor this can be in his forecasts. 

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah this winter pretty much followed the nina met winter climo script, a fast start and mild Feb finish.  I still have a wait and see about the last week of Feb until it rolls within 10 days.  Other aspect too, up to this very point, the mjo and wave1/2s have been a pretty good precursor of patterns beyond week 2, the two weeks on, two weeks off, four weeks on, four weeks off worked better than normal expectations as the nao has been a non factor and the more skilled at forecasting pacific held the roost. Now the bump in the road has arrived and in reality its seldom this easy (outlooks beyond two weeks working according to scripts).

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/962685140345466882/photo/1

mjo not coming out of phase 7 

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3 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

He had a very very very bleak post by Bastardi standards this morning on wxbell. 

I don't subscribe but his tweets this am have been telling. 

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22 minutes ago, Feb said:

Roundy plots pretty much have the MJO dying which if you ask me I suppose has the same effect as it getting stuck in phase 7.  The re-emergence into phases 1 and 2 would favor a colder regime going into March.

2018.png.5e87e0e5a52a0221dbedd370ef46ad28.png

 

 

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JB is not a happy camper these days....I bet he will find a snow threat for us in the near future - it may be 10 days out but....

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JB predicting by Wednesday US models and Euro will start printing out some snow (but mainly rainstorm) down to Mason Dixon line - with 1 to 2ft of Snow for Poconos and on NE

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Per JB at WB

"Until tomorrow I dont think models will get a real handle on the snow that s going to occur with this feature. My take is there will be accumulating snow down the Mason Dixon line in the east, There is a northward adjustment in the midwest so it may miss Chicago, but the further east you get, the more likely this is going to turn to snow and try to thump for a while. There is a very big change on the GEFS ensembles. While the storm is a bit further north for a time, the 84 hour for Friday evening is a classic 500 mb to be blasting the daylights out of New England with backlash snows further west"

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JB at WB thinks the 6z GFS is "woefully underdone" he sees snow down to ACY....likes a Euro/NAM blend - expecting changes with GFS in future runs.

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On 10/25/2018 at 5:51 AM, tombo82685 said:

Has mjo support, I can see a flip to colder by Thanksgiving

Love when it's cold on Thanksgiving

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updated Winter Forecast from WeatherBell 

October 31, 2018

  • Evolution to a cold, stormy winter is beginning.
  • The most recent closest winters are 2002-03 and 2009-10.
  • No change to the man setup first espoused back in August and then late September.
  • Forecast made a bit colder for the heart of winter.
  • Snowfall map honed a bit.

heart_of_winter.png

Snowfall:

Winter_2018_19_Snowfall___October.png

Discussion

The setup for this winter has been dealt with exhaustively in previous forecast packages. There is no use flogging a dead horse, as I am happy with our diagnosis. A new round of modeling will come out starting next week and we have not yet had the Euro do its usual flip-flop, as it has done on us before. Then again, we only see its seasonal forecast once a month, and the CFSv2 has been trying desperately to mimic the non-winters of 2001-02 and 2011-12. Given they are antilogs with SSTs and solar activity, it seems kind of hard to believe.

The El Niño, including the type we envisioned using the SOI theory from the previous winter, is evolving. Cold water remains to the west of Australia, which would tend to discourage a major jaunt into the warm phases of the MJO that produce a lot of convection there and something associated with a large scale warm pattern across the U.S.

The warm pool in the North Pacific that we jumped on in 2013-14 and 2014-15 is something that is there, too. Nino3.4 in the central Pacific looks to be warmer than Nino1+2 in the eastern Pacific. There are a lot of markers for a cold winter here.

The Verdict

This outlook is short on explanations since we have gone over the ideas in detail in previous discussions. I still feel we have a good reason to suspect a long, cold winter is evolving. The evolution of the winter pattern will be strongly dependent on the development of the trough in the Pacific from near the Dateline to near 150°W to the south of Alaska. This should leave a trough over the eastern part of the U.S. for the heart of the winter. The closest analogs since the turn of the century are 2002-03 and 2009-10, so we are following that kind of analog into the early winter months.

The bottom line is the next 6 months should average below normal with the deepest of the cold relative to averages in January and February, but cold lasting well into the spring again.

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Latest update from JB at WB....

The Verdict

The warmth is coming, but I think more cold than this model run is saying is coming right after it. So we have the front 10 days that will be cold, the following 10 days will be warmer, but then it will be colder again. I don't have any faith in the modeling after that, as I think a cold, stormy December is on the way.

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