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chescopawxman

Private Professional MET Thoughts

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Bastardi must be frustrated because he has been calling for epic cold in February. If he turns out to be incorrect this would be the second winter in a row he has gotten seriously wrong. I'm not knocking the guy he knows 1000X more than me about winter weather but I may have to stop taking his word as gospel when it comes to winter predictions if he gets another one this wrong. 

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2 minutes ago, Jurassic Wanderer said:

Bastardi must be frustrated because he has been calling for epic cold in February. If he turns out to be incorrect this would be the second winter in a row he has gotten seriously wrong. I'm not knocking the guy he knows 1000X more than me about winter weather but I may have to stop taking his word as gospel when it comes to winter predictions if he gets another one this wrong. 

He will sugar coat it into somehow he was right eventhough he played the cold card full bore for this month. His clients like extreme temps either way because energy costs go up. 

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4 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

He will sugar coat it into somehow he was right eventhough he played the cold card full bore for this month. His clients like extreme temps either way because energy costs go up. 

I am beginning to realize how important a factor this can be in his forecasts. 

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3 minutes ago, Rainshadow said:

Yeah this winter pretty much followed the nina met winter climo script, a fast start and mild Feb finish.  I still have a wait and see about the last week of Feb until it rolls within 10 days.  Other aspect too, up to this very point, the mjo and wave1/2s have been a pretty good precursor of patterns beyond week 2, the two weeks on, two weeks off, four weeks on, four weeks off worked better than normal expectations as the nao has been a non factor and the more skilled at forecasting pacific held the roost. Now the bump in the road has arrived and in reality its seldom this easy (outlooks beyond two weeks working according to scripts).

https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/962685140345466882/photo/1

mjo not coming out of phase 7 

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3 minutes ago, Mitchg said:

He had a very very very bleak post by Bastardi standards this morning on wxbell. 

I don't subscribe but his tweets this am have been telling. 

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22 minutes ago, Feb said:

Roundy plots pretty much have the MJO dying which if you ask me I suppose has the same effect as it getting stuck in phase 7.  The re-emergence into phases 1 and 2 would favor a colder regime going into March.

2018.png.5e87e0e5a52a0221dbedd370ef46ad28.png

 

 

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JB is not a happy camper these days....I bet he will find a snow threat for us in the near future - it may be 10 days out but....

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JB predicting by Wednesday US models and Euro will start printing out some snow (but mainly rainstorm) down to Mason Dixon line - with 1 to 2ft of Snow for Poconos and on NE

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Per JB at WB

"Until tomorrow I dont think models will get a real handle on the snow that s going to occur with this feature. My take is there will be accumulating snow down the Mason Dixon line in the east, There is a northward adjustment in the midwest so it may miss Chicago, but the further east you get, the more likely this is going to turn to snow and try to thump for a while. There is a very big change on the GEFS ensembles. While the storm is a bit further north for a time, the 84 hour for Friday evening is a classic 500 mb to be blasting the daylights out of New England with backlash snows further west"

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JB at WB thinks the 6z GFS is "woefully underdone" he sees snow down to ACY....likes a Euro/NAM blend - expecting changes with GFS in future runs.

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