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chescopawxman

Private Professional MET Thoughts

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It looks like the Weatherbell folks had a pretty good read on the northern extent of the light snow - JB reports this AM that the snow is breaking out albeit light (and will all the way to NYC) due to the height falls from the west due to the tightening baroclinic zone - while the surface low pressure is down near Florida. He believes you can see a small area of low pressure showing along Cape Hatteras and mentioned most folks will see has his ideas from earlier in the week had merit. Regarding the Friday/Sat system he says just like this event watch for that westward bias of the EURO and look to the parallel EURO for a better idea. The latest EURO shows 19" of snow for Coatesville PA next weekend.

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Lol jb had .3-.6 to I 95 from your earlier posts. Not sure how that is the same with what he's saying now

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Hi Tom

He actually had it increasing to 0.1" up to the cities with 0.3 to 0.6 toward the coast....compared to what others were saying any measurable getting up to 95 is a bit ahead of the curve....right??

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NYNJPA weather MET Steve D. has up to 1" of snow for central and southern NJ with today's event. Regarding weekend event says don't jump the gun plenty of details so don't worry about any maps being shown

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Let's try and be very careful her to not be critical of professional meteorologists.....that is not what this site is about

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Dave Tolleris at WxRisks evening audio indicates he sees this as a widespread 1 to 2 ft snow event from Richmond up to Boston but with a sharp north cutoff - with northern burbs of NYC (Poughkeepsie) and western burbs of Boston (Worcester) less then the major cities from DC to BOS

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JB commented on the 12z Euro saying he thinks the model is wrong with the current upper low position- believes it will end up being near the mouth of the Delaware Bay and not reforming to the south - once the feedback starts the storm should pull the upper feature - resulting in a deeper upper feature to the north side

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Meaning the heavier axis of snow would be a little further east then depicted on the 12z EURO....but even he said he is just minor details at this time

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Adam Joseph (channel 6)

 

LATE WEEK STORM...MY THOUGHTS 4 1/2 DAYS OUT...HOPE YOU SHARE IT
 
So after a weekend off, I am walking into work looking at SOO many of your questions about my thoughts on this HUGE Snowstorm heading our way. The internet snowstorm has gone viral! I thank you for coming to me with verification and guidance.
 
First off, YES...the models have been showing some kind of storm Friday night-Saturday....ALL models. Could it be big, yeah! Does it look like a massive, one of a kind storm, NO. ******SIDE NOTE: In Philadelphia's history since records have been kept, we've prob only seen 20 or so snowstorms to drop more than a foot of snow. It is VERY hard for us to achieve that. ****Ok back on track:
 
If you have been seeing expected snowfall totals for this storm, they are not coming from reputable meteorologists (at least the ones that don't play scare tactics, and have some kind of responsibility). What you are more than likely seeing is a models representation of the worst case scenario to get a rise out of you. I mean, why show you the least case, or most likely case?
 
The energy that will help develop this storm is still not in the United States...models cannot get a good handle on placement of a storm 4-5 days away until the energy is in the United States, that will be Tuesday night for us. SO....to put a really good forecast together with expected snow totals, placement of low pressure, and timing, we will need to wait until the morning models runs Wednesday.
 
Here are the elements to think about:
-sometime Friday afternoon till Saturday afternoon (rain or snow or mix)
-Current Arctic air will be gone (looks above freezing)
-Placement of low (even a 50 mile jump mean rain vs snow or nothing)
-The ocean is VERY warm 44 degrees, 7 degrees above normal (lots of warm air could be pulled inland)
-Today's model updates came in 5 degrees warmer than last night (a trend to continue?)
Have this storm in the back of your mind and keep checking in each newscast and on here. But don't panic just yet...SOOO much can go right or wrong this far out.

 

https://www.facebook.com/6abcAdamJoseph/posts/10154493629283696

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Just caught Adam Joseph's forecast. He seems to be holding off on anything other than suggesting there could be a storm and it could be big or small. He seems concerned with air temps as a whole

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Much easier to look brilliant and stay conservative now until it's imminent,

than to be aggressive now and have to back down!!

I prefer those who go for it (with sound reasoning at the time)!!!

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JB posted this AM saying he will not be forecasting amounts after this but sees a general 1 to 2 feet from DC to BOS with areas to the west of the big cities LNS/MQS seeing some 30"+ totals. He is riding the Euro control run and says to take 75% of what that is showing and he likes that track and amounts. Also sees another snowstorm later next week...

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JB posted he was "shaken" by the Euro but not changing his thoughts....believes this needs to come north based on coming though center of country and the warm water off the coast

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JB sees this as passing inside Hatteras and about 14 miles east of VA Beach

Totals DC -18-30

PHL -15-25

NYC - 12-18

Bos - 10-14

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Weatherbell folks are already looking past this storm and eying up another winter event later this upcoming week that may "surprise a few"

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JB telling folks why they never wavered on the WB forecast with his old school forecasting techniques and lack of reliance on models.

Also warning folks to not write off the event toward Friday this week. Keeps talking that warm water is your foe early in winter but your friend later in winter.

Went on to talk about he expects a relaxation of the pattern to warmer but that the cold will once again be coming in February (European week 2 may start warm and turn colder than snow) Another "big ticket" event is likely to happen in his opinion.

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JB seems to think he is on a roll calling out the Euro as not strong enough with what he terms the likely phasing on the East Coast later this week....calls out the GFS with it's normal bias having nothing....says not a blizzard but a 6-12 inch storm for some in the Northeast. I saw it mentioned in today's late day AFD from Mount Holly but it looks like they see an equal chance of it staying off shore and maybe not even being snow....could be another interesting week

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Just like the last one....JB likes this one - not too shabby with the last one - is this a JB year???

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Larry Cosgrove (great ex-Philly met) talking about an impressive winter set up through the 3rd week of March- with at least one more major snowstorm and 3 more arctic blast into the northeast....

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JB more bullish than ever on late week storm - says models are too far east - they will come west.

Said nothing like last week's blizzard but a storm with top ends running from 6" at DC to 12" at Boston

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JB said per NAM he still thinks a storm is coming later this week. He also saw the GFS swing it even further wide right and he mention it is in its usual error mode.....although it did move to a more

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