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chescopawxman

WXSIM Weather Simulator Forecasts

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Latest WXSIM with 12z GFS/NAM blend

Light snow starts around 830pm tonight. Moderate snow by 1130pm back to light snow by 2am tapering to flurries by 6am with 1" to 2" of snow by 7am. Flurries continue during the morning with steady snow redeveloping by 1130am and continuing till 4pm. Then Sleet/IP from 4pm- thru 7am Tuesday morning then a mix of IP/ZR till 11am (total Snow/sleet of 4" to 6" with most of that IP) then very heavy rain all PM with another 4" of rain falling (that looks wrong!) So basically 2.04 inches of qpf falling with temps below freezing and then 4.08" with temps above freezing

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WXSIM with 6z data with 1.3" already on the ground - nice forecast so far. WXSIM shows  light now and IP continuing most of the day with another 1" or so accumulating by 10pm tonight. Snow should become all sleet/IP by midnight and become moderate by 3am tomorrow morning. Sleet moderate at times will continue to fall till around 10am with 2" to 3" more inches of snow/sleet  falling before transitioning to rain by 1pm tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulation 4" to 7" . Wxsim still shows another 3.15" of rain falling tomorrow PM into Wed AM before ending

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3.15" of rain definitely sounds high, but the wintry part looks very reasonable (both amounts and timings of changeovers).

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50 minutes ago, JCT777 said:

3.15" of rain definitely sounds high, but the wintry part looks very reasonable (both amounts and timings of changeovers).

A little high? Wxsim needs to lay off the good stuff. Thats not even counting the sleet and snow accumulation which is probably another .5-1 qpf 

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Latest WXSIM with 12z data has no snow just some light sleet starting this PM and continuing all night with around 1" of sleet accumulation by 7am tomorrow morning. Sleet becomes moderate by 830am tomorrow morning with another 1" to 2" of IP accumulating before a change to ZR by 1130am  Then ZR thru 3pm before temps rise above freezing by 330pm. Then another 1.18" of rain before it ends by 330am on Wednesday. Total precip 2.81" with  1.44" falling as some form of frozen.  

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Latest WXSIM with 18z data for the upcoming 9th winter event of the 2018-19 season.

Light snow arriving by 730am on Wednesday morning. Snow will become moderate by 830am and Heavy by 1130am with 2" to 3" of snow accumulating by 1230pm before a mix with Sleet/IP continues through 630pm with another 1" to 2" of IP for a total snow accumulation of 3" to 5" before changing to ZR by 9pm with another 0.25" of qpf falling as frozen through 1am. Temps will then rise above freezing with some heavy rain before ending by 330am on Thursday. Total precip 1.59" with 1.02" falling as frozen

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1 hour ago, chescopawxman said:

Latest WXSIM with 18z data for the upcoming 9th winter event of the 2018-19 season.

Light snow arriving by 730am on Wednesday morning. Snow will become moderate by 830am and Heavy by 1130am with 2" to 3" of snow accumulating by 1230pm before a mix with Sleet/IP continues through 630pm with another 1" to 2" of IP for a total snow accumulation of 3" to 5" before changing to ZR by 9pm with another 0.25" of qpf falling as frozen through 1am. Temps will then rise above freezing with some heavy rain before ending by 330am on Thursday. Total precip 1.59" with 1.02" falling as frozen

Thats actually a pretty solid forecast Paul, I like it. 

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21 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Thats actually a pretty solid forecast Paul, I like it. 

but as we both know - it may very well change with 0z data....

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Latest Wxsim with 18z data has flurries arriving across NW Chester County by 630am with Light Snow by 730am and moderate snow by 830am. Snow gets heavy by 1130am and transitions to sleet by 130pm with moderate to near heavy sleet at times most of the afternoon becoming ZR by 730pm  - total snow and sleet accumulation (3" to 5") and then continuing as ZR until temps get above freezing by 11pm - Wxsim has 1.23" falling before temps rise above freezing and another 0.70" after temps clear the freezing mark

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