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WXSIM Weather Simulator Forecasts

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Wxsim with 18z data for NW Chester County continues to tick up slightly with Heavy Snow by 4am Thursday - totals between 6" to 8" of snow by early  PM

Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast
 after midnight. Patchy light fog after midnight. A slight chance of rain in the
 evening, then a mix of rain and snow likely after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill
 ranging from 26 to 49. Wind north-northeast around 4 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half
 an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation around 2 inches.
 
 Thursday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the
 afternoon. Patchy light fog. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow
 in the afternoon. High 34, but temperatures falling in the afternoon. Wind chill
 ranging from 20 to 26. Wind north around 11 mph, gusting to 23 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half
 an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches.

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Been a while since a snowy Wxsim forecast....here is the GFS/NAM 6z blend as of this AM for next Tuesday - may happen as I will be in sunny Clearwater with the Phightin Phillies!!

Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 34. Wind chill around 22. Wind east
 around 12 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 16 mph, gusting to 24
 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 8 to 12 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the evening, then a chance of snow
 after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 20. Wind north-northeast around 14
 mph, gusting to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation
 2 to 4 inches.

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If we had actually had as much snow as models have predicted this year 6 days out....my forecast would have been 30% of what fell instead of being off by 70%!!

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I am stunned....latest GFS/NAM combo CUTS Tuesday snow amounts by more than 50%....shocking!

Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in
 the afternoon. High 35. Wind chill around 23. Wind east-southeast around 12 mph,
 gusting to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 3
 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. Snow likely in the evening,
 then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill as low as 23. Wind
 north-northeast around 7 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation 80
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow
 accumulation 2 to 4 inches.

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Latest Wxsim - stays pretty steady with forecast

Note: The Wxsim developer just updated the program last week...if interested check out some of new tools at www.wxsim.com

Monday night: Partly to mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast
 after midnight. A chance of snow after midnight. Low 28. Wind chill ranging from
 19 to 31. Wind northeast around 6 mph, gusting to 17 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 30. Wind chill around 19. Wind
 northeast around 11 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation
 4 to 6 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight. A
 chance of snow in the evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low
 26. Wind chill as low as 16. Wind north around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph. Chance
 of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than
 a quarter of an inch. Snow accumulation about an inch.

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Current Wxsim with 6z data only showing a little 17" to 24" snow event for Tuesday....

Monday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 27. Wind
 chill ranging from 15 to 28. Wind east-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 17
 mph, in the evening, becoming 13 mph, gusting to 24 mph, after midnight. Chance
 of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1
 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon.
 Snow likely in the morning, then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High
 32. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 26. Wind north-northeast around 17 mph,
 gusting to 24 mph, in the morning, becoming 9 mph, gusting to 19 mph, in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches.

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That's just a smidge more than what you posted from WXSIM a day earlier.  ;-)  I think we end up somewhere in between, but of course this is still more than three days away.

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Wxsim still on board with 16" to 22"....I will be watching from  sunny Clearwater FL but tracking with all of you as whatever will be...will be

Enjoy!

 

Monday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after
 midnight. Snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 14 to 29.
 Wind east-southeast around 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph, in the evening, becoming 12
 mph, gusting to 21 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation
 4 to 6 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast in the morning, becoming cloudy in the afternoon. Snow
 likely. High 30. Wind chill ranging from 14 to 20. Wind east around 13 mph,
 gusting to 22 mph, in the morning, becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and
 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches.

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10 hours ago, JCT777 said:

That's just a smidge more than what you posted from WXSIM a day earlier.  ;-)  I think we end up somewhere in between, but of course this is still more than three days away.

It's only as good as the nam and gfs

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Latest Wxsim with 12z NAM/ 6z GFS combo - pushing a general 7" to 12" event in the NW Philly burbs....here in Palm Harbor FL where I will be for this storm it is Partly Sunny and 74 right now...

Monday night: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast
 after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after
 midnight. Low 25. Wind chill ranging from 15 to 32. Wind southeast around 5 mph
 in the evening, becoming east-northeast around 9 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after
 midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly around half an inch. Snow accumulation 3 to 5 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely in the morning, then a chance of snow in
 the afternoon. High 31. Wind northeast around 11 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the
 morning, becoming 5 mph, gusting to 17 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half
 an inch. Snow accumulation 2 to 4 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog after midnight. Snow likely in
 the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 26. Wind chill ranging
 from 18 to 29. Wind east-southeast near calm in the evening, becoming north
 around 5 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch.
 Snow accumulation 2 to 3 inches.
 

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On 3/10/2017 at 11:44 PM, tombo82685 said:

It's only as good as the nam and gfs

bump

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Wxsim sticking with a solid 8" to 12" event for the soaring hills of Western Chester County based on the 18z NAM and 12z GFS....more updates to follow - thanks for all the messages for updates!!

Monday night: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after
 midnight. Snow likely after midnight. Low 26. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 33.
 Wind southeast around 4 mph in the evening, becoming east-northeast around 9
 mph, gusting to 18 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow
 accumulation 2 to 3 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog in the afternoon. Snow likely in the
 morning, then a chance of snow in the afternoon. High 29. Wind chill ranging
 from 15 to 20. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the
 morning, becoming north-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 20 mph, in the
 afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent)
 mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow accumulation 5 to 8 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Dense overcast. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the
 evening, then a slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill as low
 as 17. Wind north around 6 mph, gusting to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation 50
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch.
 Snow accumulation about half an inch.

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Latest Wxsim with 6z data has increased snowfall to 17" to 24"

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low 25. Wind
 chill ranging from 15 to 29. Wind east around 5 mph in the evening, becoming 9
 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between half an inch and one inch. Snow
 accumulation 5 to 8 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 29. Wind chill around 16. Wind
 northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow
 accumulation 12 to 16 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Cloudy. Patchy light fog. A chance of snow in the evening, then a
 slight chance of snow after midnight. Low 25. Wind chill as low as 16. Wind
 northwest around 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Snow
 accumulation about half an inch.

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On 3/10/2017 at 11:44 PM, tombo82685 said:

It's only as good as the nam and gfs

Yup, thus the ;-) in my post.  Although now I'm thinking that the 17" to 24", which I had believed was too high, may actually be correct for NW Chester county.

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Wxsim up to 18" to 26" for NW Chester County

Tonight: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after
 midnight. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Low
 23. Wind chill ranging from 13 to 31. Wind southeast around 5 mph, gusting to 19
 mph, in the evening, becoming east-northeast around 10 mph, gusting to 17 mph,
 after midnight. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around an inch. Snow accumulation 6 to 10 inches.
 
 Tuesday: Dense overcast. Snow likely. High 28. Wind chill around 15. Wind
 northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming north in
 the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly between 1 and 2 inches. Snow accumulation 12 to 16 inches.
 
 Tuesday night: Cloudy. Patchy light fog after midnight. A chance of snow. Low
 23. Wind chill as low as 15. Wind northwest around 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph.
 Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly
 less than a tenth of an inch. Snow accumulation about a quarter inch.

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Wintry weekend on tap per the latest Wxsim with even some brief periods of heavy snow toward Sunday AM here in the NW Philly burbs

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then a chance of a mix
 of snow and rain after midnight. Low 27. Wind west-southwest around 2 mph in the
 evening, becoming east-southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch.
 Snow accumulation about half an inch.
 
 Saturday: Dense overcast. A chance of a mix of snow, sleet, rain, and freezing
 rain in the morning, then a mix of rain, snow, and sleet likely in the
 afternoon. High 37. Wind east around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. No snow or
 ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
 
 Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight.
 Light to moderate fog in the evening, then patchy light fog after midnight. A
 chance of a mix of snow, rain, and sleet in the evening, then snow likely after
 midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 30. Wind north-northeast around
 4 mph in the evening, becoming 8 mph, gusting to 15 mph, after midnight. Chance
 of precipitation 70 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a
 quarter of an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 1 to 2 inches.

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Latest from Wxsim with 12z GFS/NAM blend for our last wintry weekend of winter!!

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A
 slight chance of a mix of snow and rain in the evening, then a chance of a mix
 of snow and rain after midnight. Low 29. Wind east around 2 mph. Chance of
 precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation expected.
 
 Saturday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming dense overcast in the afternoon. A
 chance of a mix of snow, rain, sleet, and freezing rain in the morning, then a
 chance of a mix of rain, snow, and sleet in the afternoon. High 38. Wind east
 around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 60 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly less than a quarter of an inch. No snow or ice (on ground)
 accumulation expected. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.
 
 Saturday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight.
 Patchy light fog. A chance of a mix of snow, rain, and sleet in the evening,
 then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 31. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 32.
 Wind north-northeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
 Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around a quarter of an inch. Snow or
 ice (on ground) accumulation about an inch.
 
 Sunday: Mostly cloudy to cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy in the
 afternoon. Patchy light fog in the morning. A slight chance of snow in the
 morning, then a slight chance of a mix of rain and snow in the afternoon. High
 40. Wind chill ranging from 25 to 33. Wind north-northeast around 7 mph, gusting
 to 17 mph, in the morning, becoming north-northwest in the afternoon. Chance of
 precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a
 tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation expected.

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Latest Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chesco - the last(?) of winter '16/'17

This afternoon: Mostly cloudy to cloudy. A slight chance of rain. High 42. Wind
 east around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less
 than a tenth of an inch.
 
 Tonight: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. Patchy
 light fog. A chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of a mix of rain and
 snow after midnight. Low 32. Wind chill ranging from 26 to 35. Wind
 east-northeast around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Precipitation
 (liquid equivalent) mostly around a tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation
 expected.
 
 Sunday: Cloudy in the morning, becoming mostly cloudy to cloudy in the
 afternoon. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a slight chance of a mix
 of snow and rain in the afternoon. High 40. Wind north-northeast around 7 mph,
 gusting to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. No snow accumulation expected.
 

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Wxsim pumps out 2.98" by midnight with 3.45" by 5am Sat - then another 3.74" on Tuesday - totals by next Friday 8.10"

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WXSIM has really improved with latest upgrades - below is a comparison of it's forecasts the last 4 days from 5 days ago vs. actual - it correctly never forecasted a 90...

Wxsim comp.png

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Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County shows 3.81" of rain by late morning on Sunday.

 

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I have had a lot of folks ask me what WXSIM is and can I forecast for their backyard - especially since I am now on twitter. To answer questions see below and for more info go to their website at www.wxsim.com
Paul
 
WXSIM (Weather Simulator) is a powerful, truly one-of-a-kind tool for forecasting, or just plain studying weather. Its primary purpose is providing accurate, detailed forecasts tailored for your specific location, using a combination of imported real-time and model data (from the internet, plus optionally from your home weather station) and its own internal modeling capabilities. It can even improve its forecasts by learning from past results!
Here are some of the ways WXSIM's hundreds of registered users have employed the program over the last 20+ years:
  • Generating forecasts for a home weather station, using its data.
  • Professional forecasts for clients (i.e. for media, agriculture, electrical energy load forecasting, and wind turbines).
  • Forecasting for recreation (i.e. sailing, soaring, and snow skiing).
  • Education, including teaching forecasting skills.
Here are some of the things that WXSIM can forecast (out to 9 days):
  • Temperature (2 meters above ground, 5 different altitudes above surface, 5 sub-surface depths, at grass surface, plus wind chill factor).
  • Dew point, relative humidity, wet bulb temperature, heat index, and humidex, 2 meters above the surface.
  • Wind speed (and gust strength) and direction 10 meters above the surface, plus wind speed for 2 other heights for wind turbines.
  • Cloud cover and opacity at 5 different heights.
  • Precipitation type and intensity, plus snow depth and ice accumulation (including melting and sublimation).
  • Stability parameters and likelihood of thunderstorms or severe convection.
And much more!

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