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tombo82685

Tropical storm Erika discussion

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12z euro brushed Erika along eastern Florida coast as strong tropical storm/weak hurricane. It then stall and then slowly curves out to sea

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you can see on the euro why Erika scrapes Florida then slowly heads out to sea. The s/w over new england breaks down the ridge. The gfs and Ggem do not have this.

 

 

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you can see on the euro why Erika scrapes Florida then slowly heads out to sea. The s/w over new england breaks down the ridge. The gfs and Ggem do not have this.

well 18z gfs went towards the breaking down of the ridge later on in the timeframe which causes erika to head northeast after skirting the carolina coast.

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well 18z gfs went towards the breaking down of the ridge later on in the timeframe which causes erika to head northeast after skirting the carolina coast.

 

 

That is one long excursion off the southeast coast, like the previous night's Euro.  Now the windshield wiper is slowly going back to the right and/or the rubber band stretched as far as it could.

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12z EPS indiv tracks

at WPC today it was mainly a focus on the spaghetti diagrams and how they progressed in days 5 through 7. Generally up the east coast of FL then ever so slowly northward.

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this run of the euro, keeps erika as an open wave pretty much and brings it into florida then up into georgia. It then retrogrades back over the atlantic sw towards the bahamas,

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this run of the euro, keeps erika as an open wave pretty much and brings it into florida then up into georgia. It then retrogrades back over the atlantic sw towards the bahamas,

 

Extremely weak/non existent flow aloft leading to many odd looking track solutions. 

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Ggem, takes erika as a hurricane into cape fear, nc, then up to south central va...stalls it a little and then moves northeast off delmarva.

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Ggem, takes erika as a hurricane into cape fear, nc, then up to south central va...stalls it a little and then moves northeast off delmarva.

 

Dont look at its 12z run.

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Not surprising the southward re-positioning of the center has resulted in more southward/westward solutions with the ec and ukmet now bringing Erika on the west side of Florida,  the rubber band has stretched again.

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Not surprising the southward re-positioning of the center has resulted in more southward/westward solutions with the ec and ukmet now bringing Erika on the west side of Florida,  the rubber band has stretched again.

I'm starting to wonder if erika ever gets her act together really much more than just a tropical storm. I mean hispanola is going to put a little dent into it. Best chance it had was recurving along east coast of florida and riding some of that gulf stream juice.The euro basically just has an open wave the whole run, very weak.

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Dont look at its 12z run.

Lol ask tom L, your golfing pal, about the 12z ggem track see what storm pops into his head lol

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euro keeps Erika an open wave once it plows through Hispaniola. It goes between cuba and the keys then into the florida panhandle. 

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Lol ask tom L, your golfing pal, about the 12z ggem track see what storm pops into his head lol

Name escapes me, but I think it rhymes with Randi.

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Lol ask tom L, your golfing pal, about the 12z ggem track see what storm pops into his head lol

Today's CMC is even weirder with 2 westward loops towards NJ

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