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tombo82685

Vendor winter outlooks/thoughts

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Does that winter outlook from last winter that has been circulating around social media as if it was this winter's outlook go here?

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Does that winter outlook from last winter that has been circulating around social media as if it was this winter's outlook go here?

haven't seen it, but yea in here would be the spot.

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Heard some JB feedback about he agrees with the ECMWF seasonal. You guessed correctly, a cold and snowy signal.  :abomsnow:

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Weatherbell's I guess final winter outlook has temps -1 to -3, with snowfall running 150-200% of normal.

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Weatherbell folks think the pattern is evolving "according to plan" with a very warm November turning "wild" from Thanksgiving through Christmas. Those expecting a mild winter will not be pleased....

JB's #1 analog is 1963-64 - that was a very cold run up to Christmas

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Well done. I vehemently agree. Allan did a good job at touching on all of the similarities and differences. Not that its terribly surprising, but I couldn't find a neg pdo ensuing winter with a value as high as this September's.

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JB not surprisingly reiterating today that they (WB) had the coming colder predicted and while he understands he is colder and snowier than any other forecast remains confident that the pattern is clearly evolving to a change to cold between the 20th and 30th. Overall sees some cold air late November into December but NOT a real cold December (lots of back and forth) but then colder and snowier than normal in the later part of winter

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JB update from this AM.....sees a cold start to December and then a warmer month but sees a SW to NE snow event during that timeframe. Then a warmer (he says it will have to be after the cold start) to get to the WB forecast. He calls up a 1986-87 winter analog that matches the heart of winter as he sees it. There really seems to be strong agreement among most vendors with how they see the winter playing out. Now will any of them be right......

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Looks like Dr. Joe D with Wxbell thinks models are in his words "coming around" to the big pattern change to colder for much of the nation within the next 2 weeks as El Nino fades away.

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Dr. Dewpoint updated today saying a big pattern flip is indeed going to happen right at the New Year .

 

Also taking a glance at the latest Euro and CFS January longer range ----they are both showing what looks like an above average January snow month......we shall see

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Saw a comment on another board from a regular poster who discussed the coming pattern change with Larry Cosgrove at WxAmerica. He feels folks will be wishing for the warmth of December in just 2 weeks time with a turn to winter with a fury we have not seen in some time - with prolonged bitter cold and abundant snows being the rule rather than the exception. Thinks the MJO is telling and pattern reversal shall not be denied.

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I respect LC but I respectfully disagree with this..it looks more like seasonable maybe below at times, to more likely above normal. Maybe not abv normal like we had, but above none of the less. February and march have a better shot of being normal to below assuming we can get a ssw. Phase 8 in strong ninos don't really correspond to arctic cold. HM has mentioned this along with others.

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I mean I hope I'm wrong, but statidtically strong el nino's in january haven't been cold or all that snowy. But statistics are meant to be re written.

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Tom - not saying I agree by any stretch.....but isn't the El Nino waning - not sure we can categorize it as strong by mid-month correct?

 

All that said - I personally do not see how we make a huge turnaround to cold  - just a gradual step down to normal during January.  I do think February very well may be below normal and then a cold spring - but again what do amateurs like you and I know??

 

Merry Christmas!

Paul

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Tom - not saying I agree by any stretch.....but isn't the El Nino waning - not sure we can categorize it as strong by mid-month correct?

 

All that said - I personally do not see how we make a huge turnaround to cold  - just a gradual step down to normal during January.  I do think February very well may be below normal and then a cold spring - but again what do amateurs like you and I know??

 

Merry Christmas!

Paul

Eeee it's very slowly waniing. The CFS was showing a good drop off in 3.4 region a couple of week ago, now its very slowly dropping off. The first image was the forecast a couple weeks ago, bottom is the most recent. The eastern regions of the nino are still suppose to collapse, so I don't know.

 

nino34Mon.gif

 

nino34Mon.gif

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Eeee it's very slowly waniing. The CFS was showing a good drop off in 3.4 region a couple of week ago, now its very slowly dropping off. The first image was the forecast a couple weeks ago, bottom is the most recent. The eastern regions of the nino are still suppose to collapse, so I don't know.

nino34Mon.gif

nino34Mon.gif

AKA Climo.

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The most recent runs of the Canadian and European ensemble packages show potential for cross-polar flow and a Siberian intrusion, as well as the threat for a significant, or worse, winter storm affecting Texas, the Old South, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Cold air makes its first meaningful push January 6-8; the chance for widespread snow and ice (maybe rain thunder along the coastlines) is targeted for January 10-14. Given the impressive stratospheric warming event and inputs from tropical forcing, I suspect this tendency for widespread cold and increased frozen precipitation is going to be around for a long while.

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The most recent runs of the Canadian and European ensemble packages show potential for cross-polar flow and a Siberian intrusion, as well as the threat for a significant, or worse, winter storm affecting Texas, the Old South, Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard. Cold air makes its first meaningful push January 6-8; the chance for widespread snow and ice (maybe rain thunder along the coastlines) is targeted for January 10-14. Given the impressive stratospheric warming event and inputs from tropical forcing, I suspect this tendency for widespread cold and increased frozen precipitation is going to be around for a long while.

 

everything looked good until I read that A ssw occurred already. Then I just shook my head. A SSW has not occurred yet, just to inform people. 

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Couple new quotes from JB today as the Weatherbell team has been tolling this big pattern change for the last few weeks....

 

"BTW the warming coming into the arctic is going to lead to the blocking that is going to get this winter rocking - have been counting on it!"

"The EURO today should cause great wailing and gnashing of teeth if you are buying GFS ensembles - what a run!"

"This is the 4th wild rally in 4 winters - last year Nov cold caught people, then 13-14 and late winter 12-13 - all came to our ideas"

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per JB and Weatherbell we are heading into a "severely cold period - Jan 10 - 25" Plus the "extremely cold Canadian is also on the table for February"

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To paraphrase a very interesting JB video from this morning on WeatherBell. He sees - January is looking rougher by the minute and while the GFS is in it's usual la la land - the WeatherBell team is alerting their clients that while January will certainly be cold - in fact he said it will reach levels approaching 2014 with single digits into the big cities  and then February will be quite the cold and stormy month. JB also said to expect a lot of folks to start talking about the moderating that will take place after the upcoming cold - but to not be fooled by the folks who will believe the CFS. Of course he pulled out his famed Brazil Meteogram for Chicago and Atlanta remains very confident that the WeatherBell Seasonal snow numbers will be working out real well with well above normal snowfall from the southeast up into and including the Philadelphia Metro area by the time the last flake is counted.

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This morning JB laying out the GFS being an outlier on day 15 - when both the Euro and Canadian have a deep trof over the east and very cold while the GFS is well....not.

JB sees after the first rain event this weekend a 2nd storm will follow and come right up the coast to the mid-atlantic with snow and very cold to follow. Also, is betting someone will hype what is coming as the "Polar Vortex"

Also says January "nation wide" will be colder than either 2014 or 2015

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