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AdamPHLWx

Late Season Denver Snowfall

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foothills west of denver ftw? Euro looks like it focuses best snows sw of denver in the mtns

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Rockies on the road this week in SF and LA.   PPD due to snow does happen there quite a bit. Southern Rockies may actually see more. This is another hard set-up for the models. 

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Looks like a good range is between 3 and 36 inches attm. Forecasting for the mountains is the worst.

 

I had my mid term evaluation yesterday and we spent alot of time on the faux blizzard. But after seeing yesterday's SREF output for Denver, we had cough cough tighter clustering.  BTW caught your company's name with some news articles about the total cost of the blizzard in the northeast.

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I had my mid term evaluation yesterday and we spent alot of time on the faux blizzard. 

Would've loved to be a fly on the wall for that conversation

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Would've loved to be a fly on the wall for that conversation

I am getting the impression everyone wants to golf with me on November 4th.

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I kinda chuckled at the WPC forecast. Median forecast is for 1-2" in Denver, but there is still a 5-10% chance of 24"+. Mountain forecasting is fun.

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Well there is room for uncertainty given the predicted qpf:

 

I was surprised there wasnt a snowier spread.  The previous couple of runs had some double digit

members.

 

post-27-0-34363800-1429185968.png

 

post-27-0-19381400-1429185954.png

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Well there is room for uncertainty given the predicted qpf:

 

I was surprised there wasnt a snowier spread.  The previous couple of runs had some double digit

members.

Oh yeah, I'm totally on board with the spread, it's hard to forecast out there. But the 0-24" spread is just something to laugh at.

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Oh yeah, I'm totally on board with the spread, it's hard to forecast out there. But the 0-24" spread is just something to laugh at.

 

They use a combination of 58 members for their snow probs, so now seeing the sref results, there must be some rather robust ecmwf ensemble members.

 

Sorry I forget the spc sref plume image just saves as a blank, took me a while to get them correct.

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Once upon a time the GFS and NAM kept ramping up snowfall forecasts out here, til the runs right before the storm had a solid 8-12 inches in Elko.  Actual result?  A bit over 2 :crazy:

 

At least in DC, the models usualy trend in the right direction right before the storm...

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