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chescopawxman

Per JB 2 "Surprise" Snow event North of MD Line over next 7 days...

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Paraphrasing from JB's article today - sees models "catching up" with future runs to come to his ideas below

 

He said remember the storm I got caught off guard on, before the blizzard? Came up the coast, and 4 days before I did not even think it had a chance ( that's right, I remember mistakes) Anyone seeing the same kind of thing going on here, but with a lot more cold air?

In any case he sees this as not far away from turning into a real headache all the way up to New England. Slow the southern branch down a bit and since the big height fall center with the clipper is back in the midwest, it can get interesting. As it is, the western system should come in with snows, and at 30-1 it will be a good storm over the Miss valley into the midwest and that snow should hold together north of the areas that get the snow with the system from the south, which looks to be all the way to at least the Mason DIxon line. This time the snow in DC will fall with a wind that wont cause me to gawk.

So here is what I think... Look for the southern storm to shift north a bit more

The storm from the west to hold more with it north of its track.

And the system early next week, another frontal snow, to have its snow swatch shift south more then currently modeled

 

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I assume "Storm 1" is the Thursday event which is currently modeled to miss Philly and NW suburbs to the south and east.  I doubt this impacts those areas with more that just a few flurries, but we'll see.

 

The storm early next week certainly has potential, and could end up similar to this past Saturday.

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JB honking for Sunday night and Monday says expect models and forecasts to continue to get weaker and colder and is thinking a major battle N of MD line....says someone between PHL and NYC could see a repeat of what took place in DC with the last storm. Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation"

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... Plus the next storm will NOT be as warm due to "thermally induced circulation"

Isn't that kind'a like saying water flows because of "wetness"?

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JB warning folks that despite the forecasts of warmth for the mid-week system do not be surprised if there is quite a bit of snow on the front end thump in the DC to NYC corridor......

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Arguably so good they weren't shared publicly. ;)

 

In any case, he almost certainly "nailed the pattern"...

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Although he is not liked here.....It can't be denied that he certainly did a pretty good job with this pattern and really the whole season with continually warning that the warmer solutions or mid-range warmer periods would be transitory at best and the short range recent calls of "torches" did not make sense in his view from a MET perspective. Overall he and the WB Team had about as good a year as any long range forecast professional vendors in the business with their seasonal forecasts. Plus although no forecaster was perfect this year his medium range calls - while as always taking into account his cold bias he did pretty well.

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Said it again on this Saturday's summary-cast to the effect of, if you saw snow on Friday, chances are you'll see it again. If I'm able to break out the xcountry skis in my neighborhood another time this season, I'll be shocked. But I kinda felt that way already this Saturday, two weeks after the previous snowy surprise for a Saturday (3/7) that was subsequent to the first time he made such a prognostication. 

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