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Rainshadow5.8

Meteorological Autumn Pattern Discussion

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We snuck a camera in to catch the reaction of Charlie, Tony, Tom & Shawn at today's European run briefing. Tom, I think you have to do something with your hair, just sayin'....

 

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5 hours ago, NEchestercountydude said:

This is as beautiful a forecast you’ll see in September around here 

EB11FD0A-8378-4774-922C-4CCE5F18DB1D.png

I didnt realize we were talking 60s for the high.  We take. 

If the Euro pans out next weekend, hold me.

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9 hours ago, susqushawn said:

I didnt realize we were talking 60s for the high.  We take. 

If the Euro pans out next weekend, hold me.

We are getting close to the go with it confidence.  Even at this juncture, worst/warmest case scenario beginning to look like 70-75.  Wow September in September, what a novel idea.

3.JPG.cc0e2bc9d34d57efecbb4b0dfac8047b.JPG

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

We are getting close to the go with it confidence.  Even at this juncture, worst/warmest case scenario beginning to look like 70-75.  Wow September in September, what a novel idea.

3.JPG.cc0e2bc9d34d57efecbb4b0dfac8047b.JPG

PHL has only recorded a SEPT low in 40's once over the past 13 yrs., 2013.

Over the past 30 yrs. the mean date of the 1st 40's of the HDD season is 9/30.

Mean 

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On 9/13/2020 at 8:57 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

We are getting close to the go with it confidence.  Even at this juncture, worst/warmest case scenario beginning to look like 70-75.  Wow September in September, what a novel idea.

 

FWIW, the CFS2's latest September forecast thru 9/10 data. Even the CFS2 "usually" gets it right from this far out. lol

usT2mMonInd1.gif

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28 minutes ago, Mitchnick said:

FWIW, the CFS2's latest September forecast thru 9/10 data. Even the CFS2 "usually" gets it right from this far out. lol

usT2mMonInd1.gif

How do they initialize 1/3 through the period and call it a forecast for the month?   What a joke...

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MJO Phases 3-6 in September, only 4 is a warm one, so these cooler shots have more confidence legs. Phases 7 & 8 are warm in September, so relative to normal a warm-up at the end of the month/early October would have some support.  Maybe now that the MJO is suppose to leave phase 3, we will stop seeding the waves crossing Africa and take a tropical break.  As it is the Atlantic is pretty active without any MJO help.

 

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On 9/14/2020 at 1:16 PM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

MJO Phases 3-6 in September, only 4 is a warm one, so these cooler shots have more confidence legs. Phases 7 & 8 are warm in September, so relative to normal a warm-up at the end of the month/early October would have some support.  Maybe now that the MJO is suppose to leave phase 3, we will stop seeding the waves crossing Africa and take a tropical break.  As it is the Atlantic is pretty active without any MJO help.

 

Probably won't be till October. I'm wondering how much forcing even trickles into phase 7/8. The -IOD being present just screams of a lot of sinking air over phases 7/8 then convection boils up again once we get into the IO again. The forcing pattern combined with sst just looks textbook nina to me. 

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10 hours ago, Parsley said:

360 hours and nothing!

bv.png

September seems the only month that can be dry.  Maybe because the last several have been so warm, the grass has felt dry.  Sigh all that grass seed doing nothing, again.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

September seems the only month that can be dry.  Maybe because the last several have been so warm, the grass has felt dry.  Sigh all that grass seed doing nothing, again.

Thankfully I only did a small area.  Might have to wait until Spring to do other damaged area's from getting a new deck and paver patio (which still isn't finished)

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On 9/15/2020 at 6:54 PM, tombo82685 said:

Probably won't be till October. I'm wondering how much forcing even trickles into phase 7/8. The -IOD being present just screams of a lot of sinking air over phases 7/8 then convection boils up again once we get into the IO again. The forcing pattern combined with sst just looks textbook nina to me. 

Btw, not debating on it getting warmer, as I think that will occur. What I'm saying is I believe  phase 7/8 influence on it will be very weak with what I mentioned above. 

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Idk what the other models are showing (too lazy to look), but the GFS has been advertising for a while AN temps beginning 9/25 and beyond....as in the 80's.

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1 hour ago, Mitchnick said:

Idk what the other models are showing (too lazy to look), but the GFS has been advertising for a while AN temps beginning 9/25 and beyond....as in the 80's.

Euro hinted at it last night as well

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On 9/15/2020 at 8:33 AM, Parsley said:

264 hours straight on the GFS with 0.00" IMBY. World record?!?!

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PHL is going to enjoy its 24 hours of non stop rain that started 45 minutes ago today....

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Convective pcpn with a TT of 36, not that is special.

 

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14 hours ago, Mitchnick said:

Idk what the other models are showing (too lazy to look), but the GFS has been advertising for a while AN temps beginning 9/25 and beyond....as in the 80's.

Personally I'd rather have a cool September and a warm October than the other way around. The cooling climo temps in October would sort of balance out any relatively warm air mass, whereas if you get a warm muggy air mass in September it basically just feels like mid-summer again and we don't need any more of that (well maybe the figs do)

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

PHL is going to enjoy its 24 hours of non stop rain that started 45 minutes ago today....

5.JPG.8c2e294e9700382043ad9b90405a397b.JPG

Convective pcpn with a TT of 36, not that is special.

 

Yikes.

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

Personally I'd rather have a cool September and a warm October than the other way around. The cooling climo temps in October would sort of balance out any relatively warm air mass, whereas if you get a warm muggy air mass in September it basically just feels like mid-summer again and we don't need any more of that (well maybe the figs do)

Definitely agree with this, especially this year. We need to extend outdoor activities as long as possible this year. 

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

Personally I'd rather have a cool September and a warm October than the other way around. The cooling climo temps in October would sort of balance out any relatively warm air mass, whereas if you get a warm muggy air mass in September it basically just feels like mid-summer again and we don't need any more of that (well maybe the figs do)

Over the Philadelphia period of record from 1874-2009 no month was more consistent temp wise than OCT. Since 2010 the month has warmed significantly, nearly as much as the dramatic SEPT warming. 

Since your around AC I've included a chart below that details the recent monthly temp trends for both PHL & ACY, remarkably similar. Those darn interior SNJ heat islands.....

Every OCT since 2010 has averaged above normal at PHL & 9 out of 10 for ACY. Recent trends would favor your warm OCT.

120273203_phlacy2010.png.c2df6d408e84e7f3d71f9d0d40c93cf9.png

 

 

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