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On 8/1/2020 at 5:57 PM, tombo82685 said:

I think it has a chance to along FL coast into southeast coast line

you're welcome, no crow to eat

...ISAIAS REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH 

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Based on the expected track, center comes very close to our area but we are generally in the western semicircle, correct? Am I correct in suggesting that only a modest westward shift in track is enough to put us in the eastern semicircle, with a substantially increased wind threat?

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I'm familiar with the area it's making landfall. Holden Beach has an amazing shrimp burger joint right on the ICW. Hope it stays intact!

The official call is Ocean Isle Beach, NC. They also have a nice little restaurant you can dock up at on the ICW. Good fishing in the inlets of this region.

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How about this one.  Checked the HRRR model.  If that verifies, it won't be pretty.  No doubt we'll verify these winds tomorrow.  Definitely a very wild day shaping up the risk of tornadoes over South Jersey and shore points.
 

 

JAG_HRRR 3-km_20200804.png

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7 hours ago, ezweather said:

How about this one.  Checked the HRRR model.  If that verifies, it won't be pretty.  No doubt we'll verify these winds tomorrow.  Definitely a very wild day shaping up the risk of tornadoes over South Jersey and shore points.
 

 

JAG_HRRR 3-km_20200804.png

Hate to see what a 17hr prog looks like with a Cat III hurricane. 

Anyhow, I'd take this door #2:

hrrr-conus-philly-gust_swath_mph-6589200.png.827f200d40f8e869e0d4ac131064d488.png

I see alot of people on here.  There is an observational thread on Isaias:

 

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21 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Here’s my general thoughts on the wind aspect. Models are pez dispensing these winds way to much. I’m thinking 30-50 mph gusts standard. East of town where you have convection and can mix down winds aloft has better chance for higher and also down the shore. Why I’m not bullish like the models a) where is the frictional loss of wind as tropical system comes inland? b) philly on west has highest 850mb winds as 50-70mph take into consideration that you take Atleast 30-50% of the wind off due to lack of ability to mix downward west of center as sounding is very moist aloft, no dry air. Even east of town, they peak around 70-75mph you won’t fully mix down that wind either and if you do it’s with stronger convection. c) how are these models strengthening this storm while being over land? d) be careful of meso models and wind and well anything. Tropical system are convection, all convection. It’s like placing a bunch of bananas in front of gigi and telling him he can’t have one. Imo they will most likely overdo it more times than not. e) I saw Floyd was brought up with its winds. Floyd was a much stronger system than this storm ever was and a larger wind field. Floyd also tracked back over water not stayed on land the whole time. Also, Floyd had HP building in on the back side which allowed the back side to be windy due to pressure gradient and mixing out as drier air advected in. 

we can put a check mark next to c)  Isaias weakened once it made landfall and just maintained it's strength. None of the silliness strengthening over the land non sense

pmsl (1).gif

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19 hours ago, ezweather said:

How about this one.  Checked the HRRR model.  If that verifies, it won't be pretty.  No doubt we'll verify these winds tomorrow.  Definitely a very wild day shaping up the risk of tornadoes over South Jersey and shore points.
 

 

JAG_HRRR 3-km_20200804.png

From Don S on another forum. impressive for the coast. @tombo82685
 

Parts of the region experienced wind gusts past 70 mph. Sites reporting wind gusts of 70 mph or above included:

Berkeley Twp, NJ: 75 mph
Blue Point, NY: 71 mph
Cape May NOS, NJ: 75 mph
Grasonville, MD: 71 mph
Great Gull Island, NY: 73 mph
Great South Bay, NY: 75 mph
Farmingdale, NY: 78 mph
Jackson Heights, NY: 73 mph
New York City-JFK Airport: 70 mph
Ocean City, NJ: 72 mph
Rutgers, NJ: 70 mph
Smyrna Landing (2 NW), DE: 96 mph
Stony Brook, NY: 75 mph
Toms River, NJ: 70 mph

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

From Don S on another forum. impressive for the coast. @tombo82685
 

Parts of the region experienced wind gusts past 70 mph. Sites reporting wind gusts of 70 mph or above included:

Berkeley Twp, NJ: 75 mph
Blue Point, NY: 71 mph
Cape May NOS, NJ: 75 mph
Grasonville, MD: 71 mph
Great Gull Island, NY: 73 mph
Great South Bay, NY: 75 mph
Farmingdale, NY: 78 mph
Jackson Heights, NY: 73 mph
New York City-JFK Airport: 70 mph
Ocean City, NJ: 72 mph
Rutgers, NJ: 70 mph
Smyrna Landing (2 NW), DE: 96 mph
Stony Brook, NY: 75 mph
Toms River, NJ: 70 mph

Yup, majority of those sites though in nj are along the coast where we knew 60-70 mph winds were going to occur. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Yup, majority of those sites though in nj are along the coast where we knew 60-70 mph winds were going to occur. 

I think Smyrna may wind up being categorized as a tornado. 

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8 hours ago, snowlurker said:

I think Smyrna may wind up being categorized as a tornado. 

Yup, most likely will since tornado circulation went very close to it

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There will be other crow eating times.   Landcaning Euro, everyone laughed when it happened in Mexico with Hanna and seriously I read too many posts justifying its intensification on land.  The fact in didn't fold like a cheap suit was its baroclinic boost.  Plus the rapid forward motion on the right side which climowise is often offshore with our more typical tropical system tracks was over DE/NJ/NYC & Long Island which did not hurt (really put a hurt) coastal areas.

Isaias at landfall: 988 mb

Isaias closest pass to Philadelphia: 994 mb

Peak wind gust at Wilmington, NC:  73 mph.

 

Heck I could eat crow on this too, won't be the first, won't be the last.

BTW in terms of Euro landcaning (there is going to be some synoptic scale boosting, but....):

Difference in predicted sfc pressure at landfall and nearest forecast pass to PHL, a negative number means, lower mslp :

06z Euro:  -8mb

06z GFS:  0mb

06z Nam:  +3mb

00z Ggem: 0mb

06z Icon:  +11mb

00z Ukmet: +2mb   127 mph wind gust at Wilmington, NC.

 

12z Euro:   -5mb (land intensification thrut North Carolina)

12z GFS:    -1mb

12z Nam:   +7mb

12z Ggem: +5mb

12z Rgem:  +3mb

12z Icon:     +8mb

12z Ukmet : -9mb.  The lowest pressure for Isaias in the life of this tropical system is over NJ (976 mb).   110 mph wind gust at Wilmington, NC.

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This storm was persistent. Survived the mountains of the Dominican Republic. Survived wind shear and dry air off the coast of Florida. Regained Cat1 status before landfall. Final cost estimates are not in yet but will be notable. May be the costliest storm in this area so early in the season. 

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39 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

This storm was persistent. Survived the mountains of the Dominican Republic. Survived wind shear and dry air off the coast of Florida. Regained Cat1 status before landfall. Final cost estimates are not in yet but will be notable. May be the costliest storm in this area so early in the season. 

I'm assuming by area you mean the Mt Holly forecast area?

Regionally there was Agnes.

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