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I think we’ll see some shifts for a while until a definitive new LLC and better stacking of TS Isaias(spell check?) 

 

but pretty good consensus on an east coast track. Pretty anomalous trough to our west, and ridging to our East. 
 

the logician thinking is that we see a more East shift with this, but not very scientific. 
 

euro was interesting with forward speed. Faster storm can hold its energy a bit longer, less weakening as it gets further north. Something to keep an eye on.

 

lastly, eps:

 

 

03CBB2DA-1FFB-495C-B40A-E8DE2D02AB56.png

D41888B4-6942-47DB-ACA7-8A8246275E9A.png

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First it is still looking like thank-you North Carolina and second might as well have a second landfall at Brigantine.

 

AL09_2020073100_ECENS_large.png

AL09_2020073100_GEFS_large.png

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Interesting track. I agree with Brian that the natural instinct is to assume that the curl will increase like it usually does, but who knows. 

I'm sorry... What is a "PRE"? I thought I knew all the acronyms but this one is escaping me. 

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Just now, mshaffer526 said:

Interesting track. I agree with Brian that the natural instinct is to assume that the curl will increase like it usually does, but who knows. 

I'm sorry... What is a "PRE"? I thought I knew all the acronyms but this one is escaping me. 

Predecessor rain event 

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WPC 7-day total, 1-2" of pre-storm rain, overlap with Fay

QPF.gif

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6z euro plows this right into FL. Like I said yesterday, don't marry any solution till inside 3 days with tropical systems. They are very finicky to upper level patterns

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

6z euro plows this right into FL. Like I said yesterday, don't marry any solution till inside 3 days with tropical systems. They are very finicky to upper level patterns

There was a left shift with the 12z models. Once it gets to about 77W, I will send my flowers to North Carolina.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

There was a left shift with the 12z models. Once it gets to about 77W, I will send my flowers to North Carolina.

Add the Euro to that mix.

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Time to send my flowers to North Carolina. 

Broad 500mb flow is still outlooked to be positively tilted (even though Isaias looks like a neg tilt short wave within that flow on the anomaly charts). If Isaias gets that close to Florida, he says, can't see a reverse bend out of this.  All the models are keeping a very compact wind field not a typical spreading of the wind field that occurs in the mid lats.  Either way Tuesday not a very pretty day, rainfall wise getting close to a lock. (Some inland)Wind/tornado wise we will see.

 

tr1.png

tr2.png

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Looking at him this am, still pretty unorganized. Would take a lot for him to really ramp up in intensity. :

213D3004-9B1B-465E-B653-5DFB93CA2A70.png.0a1e4dbaa413cc1b710d6815478aa2c0.png
 

That being said, this looks to be a rain maker threat. Good news is that this should be picking up speed as it nears NC-NE. 

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1 hour ago, irishbri74 said:

Looking at him this am, still pretty unorganized. Would take a lot for him to really ramp up in intensity. :

213D3004-9B1B-465E-B653-5DFB93CA2A70.png.0a1e4dbaa413cc1b710d6815478aa2c0.png
 

That being said, this looks to be a rain maker threat. Good news is that this should be picking up speed as it nears NC-NE. 

The dry air west of it and/or shear may be starting to take its toll.

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Here’s your classic PRE signal out ahead of main storm 

CDD99B31-136F-4455-8F39-790F7FE47C79.jpeg

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Question for the mets on the board:

It would seem to me that the  hurricane warning conflicts with the NHC's own data in SE Florida. For WPB there is only a 6% chance of 64kt winds and based on the 0 percent chance in FLL  probably closer to 3% in Boca Raton yet the hurricane warning goes all the way down to Boca Raton. My concern would be the " boy who cried wolf" hurricane warning may keep people from taking the next hurricane warning which may be a much more serious situation too lightly.

Why Maintain a hurricane warning once the chances of 64kt winds are so small?

 

Thanks in advance.

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1 hour ago, bigtenfan said:

Question for the mets on the board:

It would seem to me that the  hurricane warning conflicts with the NHC's own data in SE Florida. For WPB there is only a 6% chance of 64kt winds and based on the 0 percent chance in FLL  probably closer to 3% in Boca Raton yet the hurricane warning goes all the way down to Boca Raton. My concern would be the " boy who cried wolf" hurricane warning may keep people from taking the next hurricane warning which may be a much more serious situation too lightly.

Why Maintain a hurricane warning once the chances of 64kt winds are so small?

 

Thanks in advance.

It may have to do with little wiggle room due to the parallel coastline track even if the deterministic wind pops do not agree. Or that warning went up when the track was farther west and the NWS has always had inertia with taking down/downgrading warnings.  It is a CAT 1, hopefully people take that into their assessment. 

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This will just be a rain event around here. Winter time noreasters will be stronger than this thing

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