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WPC day 7 prog. Rain likely to be the biggest impact with heavy rain likely preceeding the system. Day 7 system/front positioning uncertain.

DAY7.gif

QPF.gif

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

WPC day 7 prog. Rain likely to be the biggest impact with heavy rain likely preceeding the system. Day 7 system/front positioning uncertain.

DAY7.gif

QPF.gif

 

 

Place your bets.

1) Drifts West and comes up in the Gulf of Mexico and into the Ohio Valley and we get nothing. 

2) Gets pulled into Florida and runs into blocking/steering and pushed out sea and we get nothing.

Tropical rain is what gets us through the summer these days. (ex. Fay)

 

 

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36 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 

 

Place your bets.

1) Drifts West and comes up in the Gulf of Mexico and into the Ohio Valley and we get nothing. 

2) Gets pulled into Florida and runs into blocking/steering and pushed out sea and we get nothing.

Tropical rain is what gets us through the summer these days. (ex. Fay)

 

 

All of the above?

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9 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Only a scenario, but with decent ensemble support. Official track makes a right turn.

Tropical system interacting with a stalled front.  Not a given, but would fit the M.O. of the wettest dry summer I recall.

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33 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 

 

Place your bets.

1) Drifts West and comes up in the Gulf of Mexico and into the Ohio Valley and we get nothing. 

2) Gets pulled into Florida and runs into blocking/steering and pushed out sea and we get nothing.

Tropical rain is what gets us through the summer these days. (ex. Fay)

 

 

For a miss scenario think #2 is more likely.

 

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Regardless of outcome of tropical system in carribean there is a heavy rain setup starting Friday into next week. Trough over miss river valley building WAR. Funnels all the southwest flow right over east coast areas 

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Euro has owned this track so far.  GFS, et al, have been too far north overall.

tr1.png.e3cb5638c79e03a02efbc32b00a90b91.png

And just like that, the 12z Euro has shifted to the right, so right I think it is right of all of the other global models. Bypasses FL, landfall in eastern NC.  It passes the center of Isias across Sussex Delaware, Cape May Cumberland, eastern counties of NJ.  Its predicted tropical storm winds are offshore.

I couldn't see what it has around Puerto Rico, but guessing from what the GFS has, the convection northeast of the center (maybe the geography of the islands too) infers or tries to make a northern jump of the center.  The next 24 hours (all other things being close) will likely resolve this dilemma.

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9 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Regardless of outcome of tropical system in carribean there is a heavy rain setup starting Friday into next week. Trough over miss river valley building WAR. Funnels all the southwest flow right over east coast areas 

Hasn't the recent trends been for these WAR's to build stronger and/or further west than the medium range projections?

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

And just like that, the 12z Euro has shifted to the right, so right I think it is right of all of the other global models. Bypasses FL, landfall in eastern NC.  It passes the center of Isias across Sussex Delaware, Cape May Cumberland, eastern counties of NJ.  Its predicted tropical storm winds are offshore.

I couldn't see what it has around Puerto Rico, but guessing from what the GFS has, the convection northeast of the center (maybe the geography of the islands too) infers or tries to make a northern jump of the center.  The next 24 hours (all other things being close) will likely resolve this dilemma.

Yeah with the 18z GFS there is an Hispaniola jump.  The EC after slowly drifting west has gone back to that rut in the rug track solution.

 

AL09_2020072900_ECENS_large.png

AL09_2020072912_ECENS_large.png

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Close-up animation of the 12z Euro ensemble forecast paths early next week. Quite a few members there below 980mb, especially in the last frame.

I was watching Levi's video over at Tropical Tidbits about why the storm may suddenly "jump" farther north tomorrow. Part of it has to do with Hispaniola itself cutting off the southern part of the storm with its tall mountains, basically creating natural spin along the north edge of the island and allowing a new center to form there. Another factor is the increasing convection on the northern side of the broad low pressure area sort of "stealing" the energy from the southern side. Very complex for sure, I've only been watching his videos for a couple years and that's the first time I've heard of that. I'm sure we'll keep seeing more model jumping, but once the storm gets past Hispaniola later tomorrow I think we'll see solutions start to tighten up, for better or for worse.

Webp.net-gifmaker.gif

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12 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Hasn't the recent trends been for these WAR's to build stronger and/or further west than the medium range projections?

I haven’t paid close enough attention but to my knowledge this is first legit WAR with deep trough to the west. Most of this summer it’s been heat dome over plains into Ohio valley that spills into our area

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Still plenty of uncertainty. The good news for our area - will have to spend a lot of its time over/near land for a direct hit.

085346_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Could be a PRE setup depending on tropical system track 

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31 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Still plenty of uncertainty. The good news for our area - will have to spend a lot of its time over/near land for a direct hit.

085346_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

North Carolina once again the most valuable state.

4.JPG.110fbdc3bc3e75530461d2aa6208fbad.JPG

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We are headed to the OBX in eight days. Obviously lucked out with timing on this but never like seeing a tropical storm hit less than a week before your arrival. 

Those folks have been in the crosshairs a lot lately but they are damned resilient. 

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New GFS is starting to roll in.  In spite of the NW turn that has occurred, it is by far still has been the model with the worst NE bias so far.

gfs.JPG.deec44efe9fe27e1121d2218086ba8fd.JPG

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It’s conceivable that we may see more rain from the tropical rains/front than the actual system itself. Lots of wet weather ahead! 

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Big time PRE on euro with landfall over LI

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UKmet isn't far from widespread hurricane-force winds up and down the Jersey shore. Euro is much closer but also a bit weaker, maybe TS / Cat 1 borderline. We'll have to iron out what angle it's going to take once it reaches the Carolinas, from that point it's basically a slingshot up the coast.

Starting to get that feeling in my stomach where weather watchers know a big storm is coming, but it's too soon for the media and general public to catch on yet, so there's anticipation of a mad rush to the grocery stores in 24-48 hours. Usually it's snowstorms that causes that feeling around here but it's a little more disconcerting when it's tropics-related.

sfcwind_mslp.us_ma.png

sfcwind_mslp.us_ma (1).png

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9 minutes ago, ACwx said:

UKmet isn't far from widespread hurricane-force winds up and down the Jersey shore. Euro is much closer but also a bit weaker, maybe TS / Cat 1 borderline. We'll have to iron out what angle it's going to take once it reaches the Carolinas, from that point it's basically a slingshot up the coast.

Starting to get that feeling in my stomach where weather watchers know a big storm is coming, but it's too soon for the media and general public to catch on yet, so there's anticipation of a mad rush to the grocery stores in 24-48 hours. Usually it's snowstorms that causes that feeling around here but it's a little more disconcerting when it's tropics-related.

sfcwind_mslp.us_ma.png

sfcwind_mslp.us_ma (1).png

This isn’t done shifting. These systems being all convective will wreak havoc on models esp with strength of WAR and depth and location of trough to the west. They will all play a huge role in steering. If this still is showing the same Sunday night run, then yea may be time to get ready. Till then you just monitor. Seen many times where a tropical system is suppose to hit 6/7 days out and doesn’t hit that area. 

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Is it possible that the southern tail could develop a second storm? There is a definite swirl down there.

 

 

 

is it possible that

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39 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

This isn’t done shifting. These systems being all convective will wreak havoc on models esp with strength of WAR and depth and location of trough to the west. They will all play a huge role in steering. If this still is showing the same Sunday night run, then yea may be time to get ready. Till then you just monitor. Seen many times where a tropical system is suppose to hit 6/7 days out and doesn’t hit that area. 

While the Hispaniola jump seems to have been handled well,  those two features and even their orientation eventually will matter.  There does seem to be a large amount of shear (I don't know how well this verifies) forecast on the west side of Isaias, so I don't know about these beefier solutions and the solutions where intensity increases north of North Carolina.

 

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