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From Eric Webb's twitter - set-up fits the Istorm mold

Istorms.png

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15 hours ago, ACwx said:

Plenty of attention around Gonzalo and potentially Hanna, but the Euro ensembles are showing something rather interesting for the I storm, Isaias. This is the second day in a row where a handful of EPS members have a major hurricane sort of aiming at the east coast during the first week of August.

Maybe the Euro isn't what it used to be (for hurricanes anyway, considering what Tony posted yesterday about the "landphoon"), but to me that's enough to at least raise my eyebrows and want to keep an eye on this. Still a long, long way from now.

image.png

It kind of raises an eyebrow when the OP GGEM doesn't have it. But, it is like seeing non day 9 snowstorms in winter, they do happen, have to just follow where we go from here.  Pretty amazing to be talking about the "I" storm in July.  We are going to be breaking out the Greek letter names again.

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54 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

It kind of raises an eyebrow when the OP GGEM doesn't have it. But, it is like seeing non day 9 snowstorms in winter, they do happen, have to just follow where we go from here.  Pretty amazing to be talking about the "I" storm in July.  We are going to be breaking out the Greek letter names again.

You can say that again. Right behind future Isaias, there are 2 more waves over Africa primed and ready to emerge into the Atlantic :facepalm:

image.png

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18 minutes ago, ACwx said:

You can say that again. Right behind future Isaias, there are 2 more waves over Africa primed and ready to emerge into the Atlantic :facepalm:

image.png

It's 2020, what could go wrong?

BTW the Euro upgrade did start on June 30th.  They did talk about tropical storm size in the upgrade, nothing about intensity as far as I can tell.

The current Canadian is not last summer's Canadian.  I have no idea if they addressed turning every thunderstorm into a named tropical storm or not.

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GFS and Euro ensembles respectively. General idea seems like the stronger future Isaias becomes, the better chance it has at taking a more northerly track...

AL92_2020072518_GEFS_large.png

AL92_2020072512_ECENS_large.png

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11 hours ago, ACwx said:

GFS and Euro ensembles respectively. General idea seems like the stronger future Isaias becomes, the better chance it has at taking a more northerly track...

AL92_2020072518_GEFS_large.png

AL92_2020072512_ECENS_large.png

At least for one night it looks like the climo burn a rut in the rug track about 120-240 miles off of ACY.

4.JPG

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The Euro has been left of the other guidance for at least two sounding cycles.  I thought maybe it was leading on this as the center was verifying south of modeling forecasts.   But, there was a jump closer to track guidance today.   Then with tropical systems at this point, there is alot of center jumpiness following where the thunderstorms form.  At anyrate, yes there are a number of EPS ensemble members that follow the operational.  The ones that don't: the faster ones have the recurve, the slower ones have more of a threat to the East Coast.

I don't know if this is because of the new upgrade or not, but Euro positioning/verification is not getting into some of these tropical web sites.

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

There is some love out there....

5.JPG.9d3bef65321dd1ac3d8f2da6ec16285c.JPG

That's  a pretty huge Azore/Bermuda high out there. I guess it depends on the member you choose to allow any northward movement.

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18 hours ago, Harbourton said:

That's  a pretty huge Azore/Bermuda high out there. I guess it depends on the member you choose to allow any northward movement.

The Euro does not have that northwest bump that the GFS has and it goes thru more of the islands.  The GFS has been verifying too north/right at times so far. No verification is available on the Euro.  It still looks like more convection is south of the center.  I always guess wrong as to what to wish for.  A southern track would mean a more western recurve, but there might be no recurve at all. 

3.JPG

7.JPG

55.JPG

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

The Euro does not have that northwest bump that the GFS has and it goes thru more of the islands.  The GFS has been verifying too north/right at times so far. No verification is available on the Euro.  It still looks like more convection is south of the center.  I always guess wrong as to what to wish for.  A southern track would mean a more western recurve, but there might be no recurve at all. 

3.JPG

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55.JPG

What are those tracks shown heading offshore? They seem to originate in the Tennessee Valley or North Carolina...

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10 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:

What are those tracks shown heading offshore? They seem to originate in the Tennessee Valley or North Carolina...

It is the synoptic scale low on the cold front on Friday.

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Looks like more EC members have the recurve, albeit a weaker system than the GEFS (which is at least offshore with most of the stronger systems) and the landfalling GEPS (it looks like a lot of shear for that much intensity he says).  12z GFS track is verifying better latitude wise than some other runs.  Still not much convection near the center, so this thing could bounce/reform.

4.JPG.903a39bee57c9ee3819869a37ae098ed.JPG

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Tough one for models. Disorganized with both NE and SW quadrants of very large wave slowly gaining convection. Depression could form anywhere in a large region or not.

goes16_ir_92L_202007280945_lat12.4-lon312.0.jpg

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

Tough one for models. Disorganized with both NE and SW quadrants of very large wave slowly gaining convection. Depression could form anywhere in a large region or not.

goes16_ir_92L_202007280945_lat12.4-lon312.0.jpg

Irony the wind circulation is pretty far removed from the deepest convection.  Yeah this could, jump, reform anywhere. 

I guess the good news its latitude is still relatively low.  The bad news that means any recurve all things being equal would be farther west.

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Couple of 12z GEFS members (seen below) take an Irene-like track with a 960s mb strength storm. OP Euro takes a weak storm into the Gulf of Mexico. OP Canadian scrapes the east coast with a strong tropical storm, but its ensembles spread from New Jersey to New Orleans :blink2: as mentioned above we'll just have to wait til the storm organizes for forecast confidence to increase.

image.png

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

Couple of 12z GEFS members (seen below) take an Irene-like track with a 960s mb strength storm. OP Euro takes a weak storm into the Gulf of Mexico. OP Canadian scrapes the east coast with a strong tropical storm, but its ensembles spread from New Jersey to New Orleans :blink2: as mentioned above we'll just have to wait til the storm organizes for forecast confidence to increase.

image.png

 A potential heavy rainmaker here with stalled front nearby and tropical moisture

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35 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

 A potential heavy rainmaker here with stalled front nearby and tropical moisture

This has been one of the driest wet months I can ever recall. 

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

 A potential heavy rainmaker here with stalled front nearby and tropical moisture

That's a reach. Based on a right turn that doesn't show up on other models

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4 hours ago, Harbourton said:

That's a reach. Based on a right turn that doesn't show up on other models

Only a scenario, but with decent ensemble support. Official track makes a right turn.

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