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Rainshadow5.8

Temps/Pcpn/Obs/Yawn Weather Discussion

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On 9/13/2020 at 6:33 PM, chescopawxman said:

Been that way outside the PHL heat island since August 28th....we are 2 weeks ahead of the heat island in the Philly burbs!!

Philly burbs - LOL, your immediate location is rural not even suburban & you live closer to Reading than Philly. As pointed out here many times your backyard is reflective of your backyard & doesn't even represent most of Chester County let alone the "Philly burbs". The overwhelming portion of the actual Philadelphia suburbs are less than a week's difference from the last average 80 degree high at PHL. 

Relative to average the same warming trends occurring at PHL are also happening at every official reporting station and COOP locations with extensive records in the forecast area. The heat island straw man was put to bed years ago. Over the past 2 years average temp departures for NJ / DE coastal areas & the interior SE PA piedmont locations have been higher, in several cases significantly so, than the immediate metro area.

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2 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Philly burbs - LOL, your immediate location is rural not even suburban & you live closer to Reading than Philly. As pointed out here many times your backyard is reflective of your backyard & doesn't even represent most of Chester County let alone the "Philly burbs". The overwhelming portion of the actual Philadelphia suburbs are less than a week's difference from the last average 80 degree high at PHL. 

Relative to average to same warming trends occurring at PHL are also happening at every official reporting station and COOP locations with extensive records in the forecast area. The heat island straw man was put to bed years ago. Over the past 2 years average temp departures for NJ / DE coastal areas & the interior SE PA piedmont locations have been higher, in several cases significantly so, than the immediate metro area.

Actually I am "officially" considered part of the philly burbs as I am actually just 24 miles west of the city and only 26 miles from PHL airport. You are correct I am closer only 20 miles from RDG. I do think the number of 90+ days from PHL vs. the only 2 closest official reporting stations  Chesco (see sig line) speak volumes about the "heat island" straw man.

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5 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Philly burbs - LOL, your immediate location is rural not even suburban & you live closer to Reading than Philly. As pointed out here many times your backyard is reflective of your backyard & doesn't even represent most of Chester County let alone the "Philly burbs". The overwhelming portion of the actual Philadelphia suburbs are less than a week's difference from the last average 80 degree high at PHL. 

Relative to average to same warming trends occurring at PHL are also happening at every official reporting station and COOP locations with extensive records in the forecast area. The heat island straw man was put to bed years ago. Over the past 2 years average temp departures for NJ / DE coastal areas & the interior SE PA piedmont locations have been higher, in several cases significantly so, than the immediate metro area.

The warming is consistent across the region, even at Paul's house.

nantphlsepa.png

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3 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

Actually I am "officially" considered part of the philly burbs as I am actually just 24 miles west of the city and only 26 miles from PHL airport. You are correct I am closer only 20 miles from RDG. I do think the number of 90+ days from PHL vs. the only 2 closest official reporting stations  Chesco (see sig line) speak volumes about the "heat island" straw man.

Actually your township with a population of 1803 over 16.21 sq miles of land, only 111 people per sq mile is well within the official USDA rural classification of 500 people per sq mile & under 2500 in total population. You have portions of Chester County that are closer to Reading, Lancaster, probably Baltimore than Philadelphia, hard sell to call these low density population locations that far outside Philly "burbs". 

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

The warming is consistent across the region, even at Paul's house.

nantphlsepa.png

 

1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Actually your township with a population of 1803 over 16.21 sq miles of land, only 111 people per sq mile is well within the official USDA rural classification of 500 people per sq mile & under 2500 in total population. You have portions of Chester County that are closer to Reading, Lancaster, probably Baltimore than Philadelphia, hard sell to call these low density population locations that far outside Philly "burbs". 

 

2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

The warming is consistent across the region, even at Paul's house.

nantphlsepa.png

Agreed as I have always said based on my analysis we have been warming over the last 4 decades you show above and my data shows the same. However it of course followed 4 straight decades of cooling years/decades as you can see below....what will the next 4 decades show?? we shall see!!

image.png.7ffc2ca12690bc3c63961c8edb278df2.png

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Dare I say...brrrrrrrrrr  that dewpoint has been dropping like a rock since 5am, now down to 45F.  Might have to put my slippers on tomorrow morning! 😂

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1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Actually your township with a population of 1803 over 16.21 sq miles of land, only 111 people per sq mile is well within the official USDA rural classification of 500 people per sq mile & under 2500 in total population. You have portions of Chester County that are closer to Reading, Lancaster, probably Baltimore than Philadelphia, hard sell to call these low density population locations that far outside Philly "burbs". 

I will gladly enjoy the forecast for whatever suburb I’m in out here 😊

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1 hour ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Actually your township with a population of 1803 over 16.21 sq miles of land, only 111 people per sq mile is well within the official USDA rural classification of 500 people per sq mile & under 2500 in total population. You have portions of Chester County that are closer to Reading, Lancaster, probably Baltimore than Philadelphia, hard sell to call these low density population locations that far outside Philly "burbs". 

Great info - thanks!  Despite this most folks consider this area and most of Chester County as "philly burbs"  - I think the https://www.niche.com/places-to-live/east-nantmeal-township-chester-pa/ site might explain it best describing "East Nantmeal Township is a suburb of Philadelphia with a population of 1,723. East Nantmeal Township is in Chester County and is one of the best places to live in Pennsylvania. Living in East Nantmeal Township offers residents a rural feel and most residents own their homes. In East Nantmeal Township there are a lot of parks. Many retirees live in East Nantmeal Township and residents tend to be conservative. The public schools in East Nantmeal Township are highly rated."

That said I wonder if there is any "official" designation of where burbs end for the major cities? how many miles etc.? I guess in the old days before easy car travel it was a lot closer...probably any place west of the Main Line was not a burb? interesting stuff! Thanks!

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, White_Mtn_Wx said:

I will gladly enjoy the forecast for whatever suburb I’m in out here 😊

Agreed! glorious weather - let's bottle it!!

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2 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Actually your township with a population of 1803 over 16.21 sq miles of land, only 111 people per sq mile is well within the official USDA rural classification of 500 people per sq mile & under 2500 in total population. You have portions of Chester County that are closer to Reading, Lancaster, probably Baltimore than Philadelphia, hard sell to call these low density population locations that far outside Philly "burbs". 

I agree. I say anything west of Rt 100 out this way is definitely not the Philly burbs. Where tombo and I are at is just about the cutoff and I personally look to ABE or RDG for obs./climo comparisons. But, that’s just my 2 cents. Living in Collegeville sure felt more like the Philly burbs vs. Gilbertsville/Boyertown area.

 

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5 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Clouds got in the way yesterday, today not so much....

trc1_t3int_f10.png.42864a57cd5e2812dad854109f48ac4c.png

Made for a heck of a sunset yesterday. You could look straight at it. Reminded me of layovers in Qatar. 

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13 hours ago, NEchestercountydude said:

Does anyone know how smoke affects daytime highs and nighttime lows at all? 

It should reduce the highs. Guidance has 70F for VAY today. 

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34 minutes ago, Rojojojo said:

Made for a heck of a sunset yesterday. You could look straight at it. Reminded me of layovers in Qatar. 

The slope of our area doesn’t make for viewing sunsets. :(  Tom would like it, it feels like it gets dark early.

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A new record low max for September 15th here in Western Chester County PA with a high of only 62.7 today. All-time mark of of 58.0 from 1963 still in tact. Today's double digit negative departure - 1st since May 12th. Likely we will have a below normal month through at least the 21st of the month

image.png.1bb47c47c9311c2c9dcebb92763eaa3c.png

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23 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

 

 

Agreed as I have always said based on my analysis we have been warming over the last 4 decades you show above and my data shows the same. However it of course followed 4 straight decades of cooling years/decades as you can see below....what will the next 4 decades show?? we shall see!!

Meh on Coatesville1 unadjusted, The early decades of the 1900s were not warm.

coates.png

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Wish I had my camera this morning. That sun shining through the haze of smoke made me think it was going to be a scorcher of day with high heat and humidity. I'll have to see if I can get a good shot tomorrow morning.

 

 

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11 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Meh on Coatesville1 unadjusted, The early decades of the 1900s were not warm.

However, thankfully the pure unadjusted data clearly shows the following average temperatures by decade...certainly declining over 4 consecutive decades...and now rising the last 4 decades.....

1930's - 52.75 / 1940's - 52.65 / 1950's - 52.19 / 1960's - 51.54 and 1970's - 51.04 (clear cooling over 4 straight decades) raw obs do not lie

 

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