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tombo82685

To 90 Or Not To 90 (on 6/3 & 6/4), That Is The Question

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Chance are increasing of first 90 in philly on Wednesday. Atleast for now, that looks to be it for this week as the eps are really going poleward with the ridge in the plains which helps sharpen the whole jet stream which in turns pulls the trough into the northeast. This is just through this weekend. Gotta see what all that heat in the plains does, has to go somewhere and that somewhere may be here after next weekend. 

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24 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Chance are increasing of first 90 in philly on Wednesday. Atleast for now, that looks to be it for this week as the eps are really going poleward with the ridge in the plains which helps sharpen the whole jet stream which in turns pulls the trough into the northeast. This is just through this weekend. Gotta see what all that heat in the plains does, has to go somewhere and that somewhere may be here after next weekend. 

It wasn't the "one day" I had in mind, but alas it was nice while it lasted.  Maybe we get lucky on the other side and it is only "one day" also.

 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

It wasn't the "one day" I had in mind, but alas it was nice while it lasted.  Maybe we get lucky on the other side and it is only "one day" also.

 

Latest gfs is slower with the front pushing south so city get wed and more widespread 90s on thurs before front pushes south. 

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Latest gfs is slower with the front pushing south so city get wed and more widespread 90s on thurs before front pushes south. 

I will say it has been dry.  If it was last year I'd say we wouldn't make it on either day.  It is kind of a stronger warm surge Wednesday afternoon than I would have anticipated with just typical daytime heating at 925mb.  This is on the Euro too.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I will say it has been dry.  If it was last year I'd say we wouldn't make it on either day.  It is kind of a stronger warm surge Wednesday afternoon than I would have anticipated with just typical daytime heating at 925mb.  This is on the Euro too.

Wednesday looks like the day for 90s. Svr threat will depend on timing of front pushing south and how fast morning cloud debris clears out

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Wednesday looks like the day for 90s. Svr threat will depend on timing of front pushing south and how fast morning cloud debris clears out

Sounds like your favorite kind of setup

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22 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

Sounds like your favorite kind of setup

I touched on it in svr threat but I could see wednesday being a slgt risk chance maybe a bit more depending on timing of front. There is an EML present and they don't disappoint combined with strong surface heating if we clear out. 

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Still looking like one day of 90s on Wednesday possibly as cool shot saves us for weekend into early next week. But gotta watch that heat dome as it’s going to want to come east with trough coming into west 

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Forecast 925(s) still weird, but forecast 850(s) sufficient for Wednesday.

It is the GFS/GGEM (yes) vs EC/ICON (no) for Thursday.

Heck GFS would get us there Friday too.

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Forecast 925(s) still weird, but forecast 850(s) sufficient for Wednesday.

It is the GFS/GGEM (yes) vs EC/ICON (no) for Thursday.

Heck GFS would get us there Friday too.

Consensus-wise Wednesday remains the agreed upon date.  Model flip for Thursday as it is the GFS yes vs EC/GGEM no & ICON NJ centric yes.

GFS by itself on Friday.

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Selling on gfs thurs and fri 90 threat

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On 6/1/2020 at 6:24 PM, tombo82685 said:

Selling on gfs thurs and fri 90 threat

gfs may get me today with a 90. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

gfs may get me today with a 90. 

Nah, I think we crap out just before we hit 90. 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

gfs may get me today with a 90. 

PHL will probably get there with the forecasted 925(s).

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No 90 at philly so far, so my wunning Sell streak may continue on vs gfs 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

No 90 at philly so far, so my wunning Sell streak may continue on vs gfs 

Euro less rainy tomorrow gives it one more try.

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

No 90 at philly so far, so my wunning Sell streak may continue on vs gfs 

Told you it would crap out before we hit 90.

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Just now, cbelke said:

Told you it would crap out before we hit 90.

yup, you nailed it, was very close. I was sweating it out

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Just now, tombo82685 said:

yup, you nailed it, was very close. I was sweating it out

Plenty of mugginess to make you sweat it out for sure.

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8 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Euro less rainy tomorrow gives it one more try.

Sell heavily

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5 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Sell heavily

Goal posts have been moved with the heavier rain the past two days.  Going to threaten today and tomorrow, but should fall short.

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90 today at philly, but I didn't mention today for 90 sell it was only thurs/fri. So my streak against gfs continues

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I know you were all wondering could East Nantmeal hit 90 today....sorry only 83.7....

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13 hours ago, chescopawxman said:

I know you were all wondering could East Nantmeal hit 90 today....sorry only 83.7....

The sub-alpine portion of East Nantmeal got to 85.9.

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3 hours ago, iceman56 said:

The sub-alpine portion of East Nantmeal got to 85.9.

How I wish I could live in those warmer climes below the tree line of the Welsh Mountain!! I have 90+ envy!!

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