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Rainshadow5.8

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion

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32 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Last couple runs of the GFS have been showing the NW flow storms for this weekend that Tom hinted at yesterday. We'll see what ends up happening this time but I remember the GFS showing a similar output a week or so before the June 3 derecho.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_fh126-162.gif

Nice to see we potentially can still be backdoored.  Didn’t see new Euro yet, but the ICON & GGEM also have a GFS type solution.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Nice to see we potentially can still be backdoored.  Didn’t see new Euro yet, but the ICON & GGEM also have a GFS type solution.

Maybe I should not have looked.  Extremely dry air, dew points predicted to be in the 50s the middle of next week.  Predicted 850s 22C at 18z Wednesday.  Shouldn't have drank the GFS's kool-aid.

2.JPG.41909ee9337932f802c68b75f03f8551.JPG

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8 minutes ago, irishbri74 said:

Euro starts a nasty heatwave next Saturday into at leAst Thursday...

652A936D-D915-494F-8114-667746991732.png

Well this may be the one time where unanimously everyone hopes yet another day 9 Euro forecast blows up in its face.

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1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Lol. Lock that look in until November! Then it will return by Christmas for @tombo82685

I don't like that look anytime of the year

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I’ll sell on 100+. Euro imo is overcooking the turkey to much. Will say this though, if you’re going to do 100s that’s usually how you get it done as euro shows with dry air. Tough to get 100+ when you have dews near 70. It can happen, but it’s harder. But im selling on euros 100s next week 

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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Lol. Lock that look in until November! Then it will return by Christmas for @tombo82685

Persistent western trough for weeks.  Brutal if it was winter.  Get it out of our system now.  🌭

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To be objective, reasonably accurate 500mb pattern on the Euro looks like day 6 and one does not verify a forecast with a forecast.  The EPS spread for next Wednesday is huge (upper 60s to low 100s).

But I couldn't resist:

 

 

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Both the GFS and Euro are now showing another cutoff low backdooring through our region around 4th of July weekend. If it means a couple days stuck in the 70s, then yes please.

gfs_z500a_eus_40.png

ecmwf_z500a_eus_11.png

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On 6/21/2020 at 5:15 AM, tombo82685 said:

Starting the week of july 4th could possibly have a very hot look to it depending on how far east that big ridge centered in lakes moves. Also could argue the other way that we could escape as there is a backdoor look to the h5 in the northeast, if that trends stronger it would put us more into nw flow and make it a bit cooler. Also have to look out for nw flow events again like what we had with that derecho. Perfect setup with ring of fire look. Depends though on where the center of ridge forms and how far northeast that backdoor look in northeast is. Below is the eps, but for NW flow events id like to see the ridge a bit further west and bit more trough into the northeast to put us in cross hairs. On this look those events would be north of us. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-3734400.png

 

Well we got what I was looking for. We went poleward with the ridge up into Hudson Bay and shifted main ridge axis a bit west which then sharpened the trough and pulled it in closer to the east coast. Thats another cut off low stuck underneath big banana HP look.  So that could save us from big heat as the flow wouldn't be ideal for big heat if this look holds

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-3734400.png.cced7634c3632337a0365e3f50650e5c.png

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

 

Well we got what I was looking for. We went poleward with the ridge up into Hudson Bay and shifted main ridge axis a bit west which then sharpened the trough and pulled it in closer to the east coast. Thats another cut off low stuck underneath big banana HP look.  So that could save us from big heat as the flow wouldn't be ideal for big heat if this look holds

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-3734400.png.cced7634c3632337a0365e3f50650e5c.png

To build a ridge in the rain soaked SE is not going to go easily.

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

To build a ridge in the rain soaked SE is not going to go easily.

Regardless though, just like with this past heat. Lot of hot air to the west, eventually once that closed low kicks out heat will spill over. For how long is the question

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The weather pattern in the Midwest reminds me of the summer of 88 in the Midwest with hot and dry weather. Was the East Coast weather in June similar to this June?

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18 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

The weather pattern in the Midwest reminds me of the summer of 88 in the Midwest with hot and dry weather. Was the East Coast weather in June similar to this June?

no, much hotter in june of 88 here. Had 5 days of 95+ with one of them being 100. Very dry though

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Regardless though, just like with this past heat. Lot of hot air to the west, eventually once that closed low kicks out heat will spill over. For how long is the question

Hence the back/forth for now vs the perpetual 90s once outlooked for next week.

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33 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do we buy the cutoff rainfall for next week? Or Is it another Lucy football @tombo82685

The rainfall will occur wherever the cutoff low is. If models are correct with cut off low placement then yes, the rain is correct. 

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btw, textbook omega block next week centered around miss river

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The week of July 5th looking pretty hot at this point.  They have fallen apart with closed lows (this week) coming to the rescue, I don't know how long we will be able to go to this well.

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30 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

The week of July 5th looking pretty hot at this point.  They have fallen apart with closed lows (this week) coming to the rescue, I don't know how long we will be able to go to this well.

Yea and while we got the closed low for this week into weekend we are on the wrong side of it. Being south of it brings in a west to northwest flow which is where all the heat is stacked up. There will be a couple days of relief like Wednesday and maybe a day on the weekend but it’s looking like the heat has a tight grasp on the pole beans squeezing the life out of them

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My lawn tractor is in the shop, doesn't look like it will be missed for the next week or two.

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16 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

My lawn tractor is in the shop, doesn't look like it will be missed for the next week or two.

I haven’t mowed in 2 weeks. May do it today since I got .75 of rain this week. But after this who knows when. Looks like hottest airmass of season possibly next week into weekend

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