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Rainshadow5.8

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Day 6 thru 10 @tombo82685 's house EPS 850mb temp anomalies at or below (3 of them) normal.

 

The tease until Nov 1 commences

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Well it looks okay going forward.  Okay relative to July.

Yeah we are seeing a bump up after this trof clears the area at the start of next week.  That EPS run of low-mid 80s now had (00z run) some upper 80s which means around 90 in it.  Then the second half of the week looks like (beyond day 6, so there is that) there is enough of a gradient flow aloft to not keep cooking the air mass.  Regardless, the MJO is on the move again and phases 1 & 2 did us no favor (tropically or otherwise), so any change he says has to be better.  The long awaited sojourn into phase 8 is la la land outlooked for the middle of the month.  There could be some nice days with that.  Eventually the MJO will get around to more favorable phases for the tropics later in the month, so we have that going for us.

r.JPG.44afb756e90f896eb416443aec001030.JPG

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1 minute ago, tombo82685 said:

Btw, we really don’t need phase 8, phase 6 works too 

Whatever phase gets us that first hint that autumn is on the horizon with cool, dry Canadian air.

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I normally tune out in the summer but this year I find myself looking at h5 maps every day, which I don't recall ever doing once in years past.   

This seems to be the prevailing setup the past 2 months with repeated troughs in the NW and ridging with above normal 850's over especially eastern Canada.

gfs_z500a_namer_50.png.3ce48e8d4518141634f96f5fa23f9ba0.png

Is this a typical summertime pattern?  It would suck in the winter.  In fact this pretty much was the pattern from last winter 

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39 minutes ago, susqushawn said:

I normally tune out in the summer but this year I find myself looking at h5 maps every day, which I don't recall ever doing once in years past.   

This seems to be the prevailing setup the past 2 months with repeated troughs in the NW and ridging with above normal 850's over especially eastern Canada.

gfs_z500a_namer_50.png.3ce48e8d4518141634f96f5fa23f9ba0.png

Is this a typical summertime pattern?  It would suck in the winter.  In fact this pretty much was the pattern from last winter 

Wouldn’t say it’s typical summer pattern. Really nothing is typical summer pattern as each year is different. Summer time is tough to forecast because wavelengths are so small. You could have a trough in the west and still have a trough in the east too

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On 7/29/2020 at 8:39 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

By far this is the most encouraging EPS run I have seen in a while.  Even if it is missing a hot spell in there because of averaging, this is not the look of sustained heat.  First time in a while it is not a look of non stop around 90 either.

555555555.JPG.5c65b3c349d64c809940482442479110.JPG

 

 

On 7/29/2020 at 9:29 AM, Parsley said:

83-84 degrees at PHL for 8 straight days in August? SELL.

 

Promising nonetheless.

Looks like things were hit and miss this week with the help of the big rains. 

If the weekend and early next week are mainly dry those numbers will go BUST. 


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1 hour ago, Parsley said:

 


Looks like things were hit and miss this week with the help of the big rains. 

If the weekend and early next week are mainly dry those numbers will go BUST. 


ey.png

Yeah you have the combination of it being beyond day 6 plus some dollar cost averaging caused by different timing of any return of the heat, plus modeling errors.

Now a Mon-Wed heat wave or 90s spell.   But look at week 2.  ;) 

5.JPG.34344a1bd9a1a9eb41038d6505aa293d.JPG

 

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Mon-Wed pretty much cemented hot and humid (well it never got less humid, whatever).  From there the OP EC was most optimistic about a second of the week nearer to normal cooldown while the GGEM was between and the 00z GFS forecast 231 16 consecutive days of high temperatures in the 90s. 

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GFS going ham on the rain potential from WED-through the weekend. GFS brings the coastal low further north and makes it a wet weekend. Euro is more robust with a backdoor cold front with high pressure building in to keep it drier. EPS look more like an inbetween option. GEFs generally in agreement with the eps. So basically gfs is out a  wet island right now 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

GFS going ham on the rain potential from WED-through the weekend. GFS brings the coastal low further north and makes it a wet weekend. Euro is more robust with a backdoor cold front with high pressure building in to keep it drier. EPS look more like an inbetween option. GEFs generally in agreement with the eps. So basically gfs is out a  wet island right now 

Hard to have confidence in a model that is predicting 96 hours of consecutive rain..........in summer.

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50 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Hard to have confidence in a model that is predicting 96 hours of consecutive rain..........in summer.

Do you like that?

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3 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Do you like that?

I'm shocked it was not also forecasting highs in the 90s while this was going on.  BTW its forecast of 16 consecutive days of 90s from the other day busted on day 1.

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5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Do you like what the seasonal models are showing for winter? Lolz

welcome to La nina, unless it's a weak nina. You really  need to see what things look like in December. I'm very bearish on this winter as of right now, which is good. Cause very little room for disappointment. All I do know is for most of the area around here the chances of a better winter than last year is very high 

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Euro and Canadian have a better cool, dry press of air past d7, gfs not in agreement.  

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.png.7876cdef9858dbe01f7a97ddd172a0cf.png

Imagine how good dews in the 40's and 50's would feel if this pans out:

sfctd.us_ne.png.e3291b4f74aa25583038bbe7b2e61fe4.png

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7 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

welcome to La nina, unless it's a weak nina. You really  need to see what things look like in December. I'm very bearish on this winter as of right now, which is good. Cause very little room for disappointment. All I do know is for most of the area around here the chances of a better winter than last year is very high 

Looking forward to doubling my seasonal total from last winter and getting .6" this year.

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