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Rainshadow5.8

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion

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On 7/21/2020 at 9:32 AM, ACwx said:

I was curious how much of that increase had to do with overnight lows, so I grabbed that data for July going back to 1940. Seems there was a sharp decrease in the early '60s for some reason, but otherwise the main theme is that "colder" nights in summer are just becoming less and less frequent. Heck I mean just as recent as 2009 had the entire month average 67 for an overnight low, nowadays having that as a low temperature (at PHL anyway) just for one day would seem "chilly" or "refreshing" instead of normal.

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Are there data akin to this available for somewhere in our region that is outside the urban heat island effect?  Would love to see a comparison of the two datasets since I wonder about the increased urbanization of landcover and subsequent changes in albedo.

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20 minutes ago, CyphaPSU said:

Are there data akin to this available for somewhere in our region that is outside the urban heat island effect?  Would love to see a comparison of the two datasets since I wonder about the increased urbanization of landcover and subsequent changes in albedo.

I was wondering the same thing really. Here are the charts for Millville and Atlantic City airport (about 5-10 miles inland), respectively.

Doesn't seem like Millville has changed much at all, but ACY has become notably warmer in the past 10 years or so. Of course ACY may be influenced more by ocean temperatures, but trust me there hasn't been much urbanization at all around the airport, still plenty of woods.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I know, I know. Day 9.

ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png.8221eb96be1e826267cdf8e849fc0db1.png

 

 

 

Snow?????

 

 

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Models say we need to sweat it out till next Tuesday as a front brings in some relief... we’re getting there!

C2BE9CE7-4921-4EAD-8C2B-882FACA8E5F6.png

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The cool down (maybe more of a dry down than cool down) after our next run into the 90s is still there for the second half of next week.  It is looking more fleeting.  Euro hopefully in more ways than one overintensifying Isaias which brings more ridging on top of it which includes us. 

 

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This slow as molasses MJO at the rate it is going is going to take much of August to get to cooler phases 6 & 8.

5.JPG.b54c0169a488a3f9e963a103da62b63f.JPG

 

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

This slow as molasses MJO at the rate it is going is going to take much of August to get to cooler phases 6 & 8.

5.JPG.b54c0169a488a3f9e963a103da62b63f.JPG

 

While the main forcing is towards the Indian Ocean, there is some weak forcing that is showing up later this week/start of August in phases 6-8, which is what I was banking on for my cool shot back in early July when I posted it. You can see the -olr in those phases while the main wave is back in phases 3/4

2020.png.df4f1ebd46f405fac654a2e1f4df3a49.png

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By far this is the most encouraging EPS run I have seen in a while.  Even if it is missing a hot spell in there because of averaging, this is not the look of sustained heat.  First time in a while it is not a look of non stop around 90 either.

555555555.JPG.5c65b3c349d64c809940482442479110.JPG

 

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37 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

By far this is the most encouraging EPS run I have seen in a while.  Even if it is missing a hot spell in there because of averaging, this is not the look of sustained heat.  First time in a while it is not a look of non stop around 90 either.

 

We take. Will be in the Adirondacks next week. Subtracting 10F usually works for up there.

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50 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

By far this is the most encouraging EPS run I have seen in a while.  Even if it is missing a hot spell in there because of averaging, this is not the look of sustained heat.  First time in a while it is not a look of non stop around 90 either.

555555555.JPG.5c65b3c349d64c809940482442479110.JPG

 

83-84 degrees at PHL for 8 straight days in August? SELL.

 

Promising nonetheless.

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

By far this is the most encouraging EPS run I have seen in a while.  Even if it is missing a hot spell in there because of averaging, this is not the look of sustained heat.  First time in a while it is not a look of non stop around 90 either.

555555555.JPG.5c65b3c349d64c809940482442479110.JPG

 

Edit: I meant to say: The server, from which the EPS is run, must be located in Heisy's freezer. I agree with Parsley. Sell...

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2 hours ago, snowlurker said:

Edit: I meant to say: The server, from which the EPS is run, must be located in Heisy's freezer. I agree with Parsley. Sell...

Maybe I will look harder if this lasts a couple of more forecast sounding runs. But it does look like a switch from 75% 90s with either a low dew point day or an 89; to 75% we can deal with it with a couple of days of 90s.

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14 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Maybe I will look harder if this lasts a couple of more forecast sounding runs. But it does look like a switch from 75% 90s with either a low dew point day or an 89; to 75% we can deal with it with a couple of days of 90s.

Last night's EPS upticked about a degree.  GEFS & GEPS are in the same ball park too.

 

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39 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Last night's EPS upticked about a degree.  GEFS & GEPS are in the same ball park too.

 

Hopefully the relief holds. Golf today is going to be a lot more uncomfortable than when we scheduled it last week

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23 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Hopefully the relief holds. Golf today is going to be a lot more uncomfortable than when we scheduled it last week

Yeah I almost did the same but when Saturday looked better, I held off.  The Euro owned today and yesterday, it was much hotter and more accurate than the GFS.

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Don't think I've ever seen almost 6" of rain on eps ens mean before

ecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-indiv_qpf-6110400.png

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4 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Don't think I've ever seen almost 6" of rain on eps ens mean before

ecmwf-ensemble-KPHL-indiv_qpf-6110400.png

If that was liquid equivalent in January would your head explode?

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6 hours ago, susqushawn said:

If that was liquid equivalent in January would your head explode?

Probably bash my head against a wall because it probably would be wet vs white with all that moisture

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8 hours ago, susqushawn said:

If that was liquid equivalent in January would your head explode?

Only if it looked like this

floop-ecmwf_full-2020073100.qpf_024h.us_ma.gif

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Holding its own.  Tom, if you are missing the 90s, you can refer to any OP GFS run that has non stop 90s along with non stop rain.

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