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Rainshadow5.8

Meteorological Summer Pattern Discussion

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Take it with a whole salt mine.  The end of its 00z ensemble run (the start of summer) the EPS looks the coolest, the GEFS in the middle and the GEPS actually the warmest.

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56 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

We take:

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16-day total precip of 0.61"...may be too early for these thoughts, but I'm just throwing it out there: is there reason to be concerned about a drought this summer? It has been a dry month so far and looks to be pretty dry for the next couple of weeks, and there's still a decent chance of La Nina developing soon, which I believe would bring hot / dry weather to the eastern US.

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7 hours ago, ACwx said:

16-day total precip of 0.61"...may be too early for these thoughts, but I'm just throwing it out there: is there reason to be concerned about a drought this summer? It has been a dry month so far and looks to be pretty dry for the next couple of weeks, and there's still a decent chance of La Nina developing soon, which I believe would bring hot / dry weather to the eastern US.

Summers are typically "dry" evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation. Also when it does rain, it pours so it doesn't exactly do that much good. We may be set up for a run at 100 this summer unless the next month or so turns wetter. I have not looked at la Nina summer climos. It just seems we have two summers now hotter than normal or way hotter than normal.

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On 5/17/2020 at 10:17 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Well, if you throw enough stuff at the wall, some of it will eventually stick.

1.JPG.632003280fc4ff6d8c184323097dc51d.JPG

Now pretty palatable look at start of met summer and we are in skill range now.  No problem with GFS not forecasting 90s, it just kicked the can to its usual beyond day 10 position. 

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Could possibly be a frost setup if we don’t have wind. Mighty cold 850s highs struggle to get into 60s. We will see if it holds, man I hope it does 

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If we get wind, this could be the thrashing that sends the pole beans plummeting to the ground

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31 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

If we get wind, this could be the thrashing that sends the pole beans plummeting to the ground

The seeds are just starting to emerge. No worries. Thank this Maypril for that.

 

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2 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

The seeds are just starting to emerge. No worries. Thank this Maypril for that.

 

Do you like Barney shots in June?

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2 hours ago, tombo82685 said:

Barney is still there, beautiful. 60s for highs for start of June? Pinch me please

Record low max for 6/1 is 58, most recent day with high below 70 was 2003. Most of those 50's / 60's for highs have to be marine / rain induced, to have a westerly flow mostly sunny day in the 60's would be noteworthy.

There are many record lows at Philly that have no chance of be being threatened in our current climo, the record low max for June 2nd is 49 degrees, LOL that is one of them.

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55 minutes ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Record low max for 6/1 is 58, most recent day with high below 70 was 2003. Most of those 50's / 60's for highs have to be marine / rain induced, to have a westerly flow mostly sunny day in the 60's would be noteworthy.

There are many record lows at Philly that have no chance of be being threatened in our current climo, the record low max for June 2nd is 49 degrees, LOL that is one of them.

Lol good Lord, yea that would take an obscene airmass with clouds and or rain to go with it

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

Lol good Lord, yea that would take an obscene airmass with clouds and or rain to go with it

Thursday into Saturday looking very wet now 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Thursday into Saturday looking very wet now 

yup, never underestimate a surge of tropical air coming up the coast with PWATS pushing 2" and in sum instances over that 

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12 minutes ago, NEchestercountydude said:

Euro with a casual mid 50's high next Monday lol 

WE TAKE!!!!!!

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I am glad that the name Barney has been attached to these episodes since my best dog a Jack Russel was named as such and I remember taking him out the the park just before PDSII and watching him go wild at 12 degrees. Sorry for digressing.

image.png.7caa8a5640dd2eb1495c1acbf89a165b.png

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