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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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Recently, US deaths have tracked just under 0.07 * cases a week ago. Yesterday's figures: cases a week ago -  275,542, deaths - 18,488, ratio - 0.067. Yesterdays cases (492,628) predict roughly 33,000 deaths a week from today. Yesterday's new cases (34154) added roughly 2300.

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10 minutes ago, Chubbs said:

Recently, US deaths have tracked just under 0.07 * cases a week ago. Yesterday's figures: cases a week ago -  275,542, deaths - 18,488, ratio - 0.067. Yesterdays cases (492,628) predict roughly 33,000 deaths a week from today. Yesterday's new cases (34154) added roughly 2300.

He says, it looks like daily new cases are leveling off.  I'd like to see NY's new case number drop below 10K. They are doing a world of testing though. 

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

He says, it looks like daily new cases are leveling off.  I'd like to see NY's new case number drop below 10K. They are doing a world of testing though. 

NY has performed 417K tests, both FL & CA around 170K tests each.

Not that this is a surprise, the CDC published an update on symptoms and pre-existing conditions of COVID19 patients that needed hospitalization in March.

11.JPG.614897889619308db77b1e5faf4f11e8.JPG

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

NY has performed 417K tests, both FL & CA around 170K tests each.

Not that this is a surprise, the CDC published an update on symptoms and pre-existing conditions of COVID19 patients that needed hospitalization in March.

11.JPG.614897889619308db77b1e5faf4f11e8.JPG

That's a lot of information to unpack. Thanks for sharing. 

I wish the CDC would publish, side-by-side, underlying condition information on the whole population for each of these age groups as a way of highlighting underlying conditions that are more "correlative" than others. Yes, I should avoid using the statistical term correlating

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8 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

That's a lot of information to unpack. Thanks for sharing. 

I wish the CDC would publish, side-by-side, underlying condition information on the whole population for each of these age groups as a way of highlighting underlying conditions that are more "correlative" than others. Yes, I should avoid using the statistical term correlating

This is the actual CDC link to the report.  I am suffering from info overload, so it might have been there, I forget.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6915e3-H.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3E-klXUQ6nXj8wU3xzEXZku-anIMQsmRM81kXXU_23D2K9YOOEoH3UsMw

 

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Why did the virus severely impact the US and western Europe and not China?

Because China appears to have stopped reporting cases....

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Why did the virus severely impact the US and western Europe and not China?

Well I don't believe the numbers out of China.  They did the world no favor by trying to suppress the real information, I think it is safe to assume it started earlier than what they said. 

Getting that out of the way, they separated people who had it from their families.  They literally locked you in your house and/or prohibited you from leaving with the full extent of the not so friendly government. 

A high school classmate of mine who lives in China (not sure Wuhan or Shanghai) tested negative and they told him and his family to exile elsewhere. He spent a month in Taiwan, some time in New Zealand and then had to be quarantined for two weeks before he is finally being permitted to return home.  I think it is today.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says

 

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2 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Why did the virus severely impact the US and western Europe and not China?

Can't agree with your statement since virus did severely impact Wuhan. Below are a couple of items

Technical article covering what worked (testing+isolation much better than merely shutting everything) and didn't (initial cover-up and denial) in China

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00741-x

What it is like for foreigner to live in China under lockdown

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/30/life-on-lockdown-in-china

 

 

 

 

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18 hours ago, Chubbs said:

Can't agree with your statement since virus did severely impact Wuhan. Below are a couple of items

Technical article covering what worked (testing+isolation much better than merely shutting everything) and didn't (initial cover-up and denial) in China

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00741-x

What it is like for foreigner to live in China under lockdown

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/03/30/life-on-lockdown-in-china

Not really a statement just a question. With a population nearing 2 billion and the degree of to which this infects people how can they have done such a great job unless they knew it was coming. According to them it never got out of Wuhan. That is hard to swallow.

I know they are replaying the Masters today when Tiger and Demarco went at it. It only will make me sadder. But my glass is always half full (I should say full period). Better days are coming boys.

 

 

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

 

I thought today's was going to be Tiger's Master win from last year?  Yesterday they had Phil's first win.

Italy's & New York State confirmed cases down from yesterday.  I know it is Easter, so who knows, but I'll take it.

 

 

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41 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I thought today's was going to be Tiger's Master win from last year?  Yesterday they had Phil's first win.

Italy's & New York State confirmed cases down from yesterday.  I know it is Easter, so who knows, but I'll take it.

 

 

It's on Channel 3. CBS has it on.

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I thought today's was going to be Tiger's Master win from last year?  Yesterday they had Phil's first win.

Italy's & New York State confirmed cases down from yesterday.  I know it is Easter, so who knows, but I'll take it.

 

 

Sorry fake news. Tigers win last year is on tap. With the damaging winds coming up I helped next door neighbor start their generator that hasn't been started since Sandy. After two hours, we got it started. I made a lame joke about how the generator was resurrected on Easter. She immediately held me to task about the inappropriateness while smiling at the same time.

Quarantine has its bright spots.

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Sorry fake news. Tigers win last year is on tap. With the damaging winds coming up I helped next door neighbor start their generator that hasn't been started since Sandy. After two hours, we got it started. I made a lame joke about how the generator was resurrected on Easter. She immediately held me to task about the inappropriateness while smiling at the same time.

Quarantine has its bright spots.

We have alot of unburned firewood from having four months of March in a row, so we will be able to keep the house heated for a while.  I hope it doesn't become necessary.

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In case anyone is wondering why we have a shut down. My son's company has 25% out at one site today.

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On 4/11/2020 at 9:41 AM, Rainshadow5.8 said:

NY has performed 417K tests, both FL & CA around 170K tests each.

Not that this is a surprise, the CDC published an update on symptoms and pre-existing conditions of COVID19 patients that needed hospitalization in March.

11.JPG.614897889619308db77b1e5faf4f11e8.JPG


what is the correct way to read this table? For example the “overall - any condition”, 159/178 - does that mean there were 178 cases with underlying conditions and of those 159 resulted in hospitalization? OR does it mean that out of 178 hospitalizations, 159 had underlying conditions? (I hope it’s the latter, that would be much less scary than the former)...

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26 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:


what is the correct way to read this table? For example the “overall - any condition”, 159/178 - does that mean there were 178 cases with underlying conditions and of those 159 resulted in hospitalization? OR does it mean that out of 178 hospitalizations, 159 had underlying conditions? (I hope it’s the latter, that would be much less scary than the former)...

It is the latter.

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54 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

It is the latter.

Thanks Tony but actually as I look at the chart closer it’s still confusing. Like when you look at the symptoms section it makes sense because the second number is 180 on every line - so I assume it means out of 180 hospitalizations, 155 had a cough, 153 had a fever, etc. But in the underlying conditions section, that second number is always different, so it can’t represent number of hospitalizations with that condition, because then what would the first number mean?

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18 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:

Thanks Tony but actually as I look at the chart closer it’s still confusing. Like when you look at the symptoms section it makes sense because the second number is 180 on every line - so I assume it means out of 180 hospitalizations, 155 had a cough, 153 had a fever, etc. But in the underlying conditions section, that second number is always different, so it can’t represent number of hospitalizations with that condition, because then what would the first number mean?

I know it isn’t exact, but it looks like they remove the 19 don’t have underlying conditions, so it bounces around 159 as the denominator. 

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It is all relative, but it was a better day worldwide.  There were 72K new cases vs 80K the day before (7 am snap shot)

 

U.S.:  Lowest confirmed daily cases since April 5th, Now nine days away from case top on April 4th.   

Germany:  Lowest confirmed daily cases since March 17th, their active cases have been declining since April 6th peak.

Spain:  Lowest confirmed daily cases since March 18th.

Italy:  March 21st daily case top, subsequent daily case tops have been sequentially lower.

UK:  (They really messed up) Now three days removed from both highest new case and deadliest day.

Switzerland:  March 20th daily case top in the rear view mirror, steady active case drop since March 31st.

Australia:  Four consecutive days with <100 new cases; active case peak was April 4th, now dropping.

New York:  Lowest new case count since March 24th.  Total hospitalizations plateauing.

New Jersey:  10 days removed from new daily case high.  

Pennsylvania:  9 days removed from new daily case high.

Delaware:  5 days removed from new daily case high.

 

 

 

 

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

It is all relative, but it was a better day worldwide.  There were 72K new cases vs 80K the day before (7 am snap shot)

 

U.S.:  Lowest confirmed daily cases since April 5th, Now nine days away from case top on April 4th.   

Germany:  Lowest confirmed daily cases since March 17th, their active cases have been declining since April 6th peak.

Spain:  Lowest confirmed daily cases since March 18th.

Italy:  March 21st daily case top, subsequent daily case tops have been sequentially lower.

UK:  (They really messed up) Now three days removed from both highest new case and deadliest day.

Switzerland:  March 20th daily case top in the rear view mirror, steady active case drop since March 31st.

Australia:  Four consecutive days with <100 new cases; active case peak was April 4th, now dropping.

New York:  Lowest new case count since March 24th.  Total hospitalizations plateauing.

New Jersey:  10 days removed from new daily case high.  

Pennsylvania:  9 days removed from new daily case high.

Delaware:  5 days removed from new daily case high.

 

 

 

 

Yes improvement. Our shutdown had a big effect on the trajectory starting about 3 weeks ago. Small steps to re-open in Austria and Spain.

Screenshot_2020-04-14 91-DIVOC Flip the script on COVID-19.png

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