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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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Another great link below with worldwide data that you can slice and dice.

From this data some relative good news on how we have handled the pandemic compared to other countries

We are 9th in Deaths per million people at 33 so far and 6th in new deaths per million in the last day at 4 deaths per million people - Spain/Italy/France/Netherlands/UK/Sweden/Iran and Ireland have experienced greater deaths per million than the US - maybe our early action has helped us turn the corner quicker than others??

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=

 

 

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Good news on confirmed test results (there is a lag in NJ of over 7 days) in NY (lowest since 3/31), NJ down, PA down.  NY also had a pretty low ICU admission, best in a while.  I know there is differences as to reset time, but the peak reporting new case day for NY & NJ are currently April 3rd and PA is currently April 4th.  NJ ventilator need is at the low end of the forecast band by UWA. Hopefully we stay there. Italy's new cases are way down, best since 3/13. 

Lessons learned, whatever Washington did, we should mimic with future pandemics.  Conversely, you have to feel sorry for the UK is going thru now.  They have become the new Italy & Spain :(.  Beside the PM now in intensive care, they have 55K confirmed cases (1/7th of the U.S.'s total)  and half of our confirmed deaths.   

This is not sugar coat what is happening right now.  Today is going to set a new daily record for COVID19 so far, praying it is the top. 

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38 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Good news on confirmed test results (there is a lag in NJ of over 7 days) in NY (lowest since 3/31), NJ down, PA down.  NY also had a pretty low ICU admission, best in a while.  I know there is differences as to reset time, but the peak reporting new case day for NY & NJ are currently April 3rd and PA is currently April 4th.  NJ ventilator need is at the low end of the forecast band by UWA. Hopefully we stay there. Italy's new cases are way down, best since 3/13. 

Lessons learned, whatever Washington did, we should mimic with future pandemics.  Conversely, you have to feel sorry for the UK is going thru now.  They have become the new Italy & Spain :(.  Beside the PM now in intensive care, they have 55K confirmed cases (1/7th of the U.S.'s total)  and half of our confirmed deaths.   

This is not sugar coat what is happening right now.  Today is going to set a new daily record for COVID19 so far, praying it is the top. 

I haven't had time to follow super closely and am shocked to see how bad it is in the UK. That's truly awful. I've heard that Boris Johnson is in the ICU. I've heard that it is just standard oxygen treatment, so I guess that means that it's just nasal cannulae.

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In an example of just how desperate sports fans are, one of the Detroit Free Press sportswriters is playing out each game for my hometown Detroit Tigers on MLB 2020 on his Twitch account. I heard they recently got clobbered (no surprise).

It's a First World problem, but my gosh I miss sports...

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46 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

In an example of just how desperate sports fans are, one of the Detroit Free Press sportswriters is playing out each game for my hometown Detroit Tigers on MLB 2020 on his Twitch account. I heard they recently got clobbered (no surprise).

It's a First World problem, but my gosh I miss sports...

I will have to wait until November for the Masters if then. The magnolias will not be in bloom or the other great floral decorations.Heard they were thinking of opening baseball season with all games in Arizona. Anything would be welcome now.

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45 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

I will have to wait until November for the Masters if then. The magnolias will not be in bloom or the other great floral decorations.Heard they were thinking of opening baseball season with all games in Arizona. Anything would be welcome now.

Yes MLB considering opening season in AZ with teams playing with no fans in the stands just TV across all of the spring training spots...until they can get back to playing in their home parks later in the summer.....that would be great just to have some sports to watch on TV again!

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I think the thought of (empty) stadium sports is a horrible idea at this point. Maybe I’ll feel differently in a month or two if significant progress is made. Otherwise sports aren’t that important in life. 
 

 

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First time food shopping in 10 days...

plenty of fruit, vegetables and meats. Good amount of bakery and dairy products. Very low supply of soaps, cleaning supplies, paper supplies and breakfast batters/syrups. 

Noticed the jacked up egg prices. Still bought 2 cartons. Masked and/or gloved shoppers I’d put at 20%. 

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15 minutes ago, Parsley said:

First time food shopping in 10 days...

plenty of fruit, vegetables and meats. Good amount of bakery and dairy products. Very low supply of soaps, cleaning supplies, paper supplies and breakfast batters/syrups. 

Noticed the jacked up egg prices. Still bought 2 cartons. Masked and/or gloved shoppers I’d put at 20%. 

And no flour.

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16 hours ago, snowlurker said:

In an example of just how desperate sports fans are, one of the Detroit Free Press sportswriters is playing out each game for my hometown Detroit Tigers on MLB 2020 on his Twitch account. I heard they recently got clobbered (no surprise).

It's a First World problem, but my gosh I miss sports...

Listened to Halladay's no-hitter from May 29, 2010 on WIP last evening.   Good to hear baseball, but also from a nostalgia perspective from the time of Utley, Howard, Ruiz, etc.   Even though you know how it ends, it's fun to hear how it got there.   Halladay had a couple calls that went his way, which is the norm in any game.

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This from a nearby local nursery this morning where I did an order/pay over the phone and pick up (no contact) this past weekend. They were originally closed, then reopened as essential, but appears the storefront must now close, but delivery/no contact order/pick ups can continue. Sad, when you can't even take 5-10 minutes to walk around the nursery and take in the beauty of spring. Tough time to be a local business. When I picked up last weekend there were maybe 4-5 customers on site, definitely not a mob scene.

The safety and health of our employees, local community, nation and world are of utmost importance to us. We are taking the recommendations of our governor and health departments seriously and suspending regular operations of unnecessary retail. At this time, we are closing our storefront operations. Our individual exemption to keep our retail store opened has been denied. We feel as though this decision is best for everyone as we start to move into a tough time for our area as the virus spreads.
 
We need you more than ever! Please note that we will still be offering local delivery and no-contact curbside pick-up to protect everyone that needs to go out. No one is permitted in our store or walking our grounds at this time, as per the orders of Gov. Wolf. Please stay home and stay safe. If you are picking up curbside, do not get out of the car. You can call the store and we will promptly come out and load your pre-paid order in your car and send you on your way without any contact.
 
At this time of year, gardening and being outdoors is good for the mind, body and soul. We think everyone should be growing their own food and beautifying their properties. Please call to set-up a local delivery or pick-up.

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That stinks.  The nurseries are open here in NJ for now.  I saw landscaping crews mowing yesterday as well.  I believe NY suspended landscapers.  I need to hit the nursery soon for a shrub or two, so hopefully they stay opened.  Wow, just 20% of the people wearing masks?  My wife and I went one of the local farms on Sunday and I would say about 85-90% of the people were wearing masks.  There was a good 50 people there, but they made an area for the line and marked off area's about 8' apart.  Then they only allowed one customer at a time in their large tented area and they shopped for you so that people weren't touching everything.  The brisket from there was amazing!

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30 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

That stinks.  The nurseries are open here in NJ for now.  I saw landscaping crews mowing yesterday as well.  I believe NY suspended landscapers.  I need to hit the nursery soon for a shrub or two, so hopefully they stay opened.  Wow, just 20% of the people wearing masks?  My wife and I went one of the local farms on Sunday and I would say about 85-90% of the people were wearing masks.  There was a good 50 people there, but they made an area for the line and marked off area's about 8' apart.  Then they only allowed one customer at a time in their large tented area and they shopped for you so that people weren't touching everything.  The brisket from there was amazing!

NY Landscapers: I cut my own grass, people are going to have hay in May in NY.   I'd say the Shop Rite mask percentage on Monday was around 50%.

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33 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

That stinks.  The nurseries are open here in NJ for now.  I saw landscaping crews mowing yesterday as well.  I believe NY suspended landscapers.  I need to hit the nursery soon for a shrub or two, so hopefully they stay opened.  Wow, just 20% of the people wearing masks?  My wife and I went one of the local farms on Sunday and I would say about 85-90% of the people were wearing masks.  There was a good 50 people there, but they made an area for the line and marked off area's about 8' apart.  Then they only allowed one customer at a time in their large tented area and they shopped for you so that people weren't touching everything.  The brisket from there was amazing!

Talking to friends and family in NNJ and Long Island it's definitely a different vibe clearly due to the number of cases and population numbers up that way. My dad said some stores are not letting people in without a mask and limiting the number of people in at one time. Out this way, on the fringes of suburbia on a weekday evening I've only encountered 10-20 shoppers in the grocery store on my weekly trips. Makes the shopping much less stressful. Couldn't imagine trying to do it surrounded by 100+ people. 

Hopefully, most local nurseries can get by with online/phone orders and non-contact pick ups or delivery. I'll do it again as it was quite convenient (even if I paid roughly 20% more vs. big box stores). 

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12 hours ago, Parsley said:

I think the thought of (empty) stadium sports is a horrible idea at this point. Maybe I’ll feel differently in a month or two if significant progress is made. Otherwise sports aren’t that important in life. 
 

Agreed only if they can do it safely....fingers and toes crossed that we are starting to turn a corner so we really need to start getting things going - my Dad 85 yrs old with cancer told me what he misses most in our new reality is baseball....he thought the idea of being able to watch the game even in an empty stadium would improve his outlook. Heck they are actually doing that in South Korea now - they are playing baseball in empty stadiums....

 

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2 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

 

I hear ya. I'm looking forward to the NFL draft. Glad they can get it done "virtually". Shouldn't put anyone at risk and allow fans something to talk about. 

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2 hours ago, Parsley said:

Talking to friends and family in NNJ and Long Island it's definitely a different vibe clearly due to the number of cases and population numbers up that way. My dad said some stores are not letting people in without a mask and limiting the number of people in at one time. Out this way, on the fringes of suburbia on a weekday evening I've only encountered 10-20 shoppers in the grocery store on my weekly trips. Makes the shopping much less stressful. Couldn't imagine trying to do it surrounded by 100+ people. 

Hopefully, most local nurseries can get by with online/phone orders and non-contact pick ups or delivery. I'll do it again as it was quite convenient (even if I paid roughly 20% more vs. big box stores). 

I would put a sign up, no mask, no service.  

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I went to Wegman's in Downingtown at 8:30 this morning...this is the first time I actually broke out one of the three N95 masks we've had in the house for probably five years.  

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Atleast my kids are getting some good schooling at home ;)

BEC597D3-A162-4AA4-B6BE-848EC372D6A6.jpeg

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The good news is we are off the rapid exponential increase. The bad news is new cases are still high and it doesn't look like we are limiting new cases as effectively as other countries. Need to pick-up our game to open things back up.

2020-04-09 91-DIVOC Flip the script on COVID-19.png

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1 hour ago, Chubbs said:

The good news is we are off the rapid exponential increase. The bad news is new cases are still high and it doesn't look like we are limiting new cases as effectively as other countries. Need to pick-up our game to open things back up.

2020-04-09 91-DIVOC Flip the script on COVID-19.png

Hard to say this is good when COVID19 was the daily leading cause of death on Tuesday, but we have come off the exponential growth for deaths also.  That is the last lagging indicator.  Today is the day NY is suppose to start plateauing, hope/pray it is true.

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Hey everyone, with all the boring weather I haven't been on here for quite a while, glad to see there is a coronavirus thread going. Stormtrack has had three threads on the topic; the general one started before the end of January; that started getting too political so someone started a separate political coronavirus thread. As you can imagine, that didn't go too well and was shut down. The third thread is a stormchasing-specific coronavirus thread - i.e., whether people are "permitted" to chase during lockdown depending upon the level of restriction in different states, and other logistical concerns - such as news that the Wyndham in Oklahoma City announced closure all the way through June 1, which doesn't bode well for a late-season chase vacation even if we are past the peak of health risk by then... 

Anyway, I am blessed to be able to work from home and feel bad for people that are out of work; I frequently wrestle with whether we have done the right thing by unplugging the entire economy in this way. Especially since a lot of decisions were made based on models and projections, and we all know what models are worth... Regardless, it is what it is, but, we cannot continue this for too long without doing irreparable damage to the society.

I could actually go to my office in Yardley and practice social distancing by being the only one there, but I might as well enjoy the flexibility and comfort of working from home while I can. If this were 10 or 15 years ago when I were a younger man, it would drive me crazy to be secluded at home like this, but in my mellower "old age" I rather enjoy. The main thing I miss is my Brazilian jiu jitsu training; it's going to be difficult to figure out when it's safe to do that again; even once things start opening back up, grappling on the mats with five different guys in an evening is going to be questionable... In the meantime, trying to keep in shape with home workouts; I have a rower, an elliptical, and some dumbbells and kettlebells. I add in walking, running or biking if the weather is warm. Looking forward to more consistent warm weather to at least get out back, BBQ, etc.

My company is in healthcare, although I am on the finance side. Spending most of my time researching the impact of all the new tax and unemployment legislation. Feeling much more reactive these days, hard to do the heads-down "deeper" work I prefer, but it can be hard to be as consistently productive from home and just responding to all the new coronavirus stuff is taking a lot of time.

So far I have a couple of colleagues that have / have had the virus, one colleague that lost her father who was in a nursing home, and a friend that had it - he's about 55, relatively mild case, I think yesterday was his first day out of quarantine. Although I am generally a hypochondriac, I don't worry too much about getting it. Despite the scary numbers, the actual case rate is a fraction of one percent. It's all about protecting the healthcare system, because even small percentages add up to large absolute numbers that could exceed hospital bed and ICU capacity.

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1 hour ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Hard to say this is good when COVID19 was the daily leading cause of death on Tuesday, but we have come off the exponential growth for deaths also.  That is the last lagging indicator.  Today is the day NY is suppose to start plateauing, hope/pray it is true.

Tony always important to keep in mind death is a result of what happened 2 weeks ago...so the expectation is deaths should also begin to decline steadily after next week (likely the week of the 20th) so great news there!

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40 minutes ago, JimCaruso said:

Hey everyone, with all the boring weather I haven't been on here for quite a while, glad to see there is a coronavirus thread going. Stormtrack has had three threads on the topic; the general one started before the end of January; that started getting too political so someone started a separate political coronavirus thread. As you can imagine, that didn't go too well and was shut down. The third thread is a stormchasing-specific coronavirus thread - i.e., whether people are "permitted" to chase during lockdown depending upon the level of restriction in different states, and other logistical concerns - such as news that the Wyndham in Oklahoma City announced closure all the way through June 1, which doesn't bode well for a late-season chase vacation even if we are past the peak of health risk by then... 

Anyway, I am blessed to be able to work from home and feel bad for people that are out of work; I frequently wrestle with whether we have done the right thing by unplugging the entire economy in this way. Especially since a lot of decisions were made based on models and projections, and we all know what models are worth... Regardless, it is what it is, but, we cannot continue this for too long without doing irreparable damage to the society.

I could actually go to my office in Yardley and practice social distancing by being the only one there, but I might as well enjoy the flexibility and comfort of working from home while I can. If this were 10 or 15 years ago when I were a younger man, it would drive me crazy to be secluded at home like this, but in my mellower "old age" I rather enjoy. The main thing I miss is my Brazilian jiu jitsu training; it's going to be difficult to figure out when it's safe to do that again; even once things start opening back up, grappling on the mats with five different guys in an evening is going to be questionable... In the meantime, trying to keep in shape with home workouts; I have a rower, an elliptical, and some dumbbells and kettlebells. I add in walking, running or biking if the weather is warm. Looking forward to more consistent warm weather to at least get out back, BBQ, etc.

My company is in healthcare, although I am on the finance side. Spending most of my time researching the impact of all the new tax and unemployment legislation. Feeling much more reactive these days, hard to do the heads-down "deeper" work I prefer, but it can be hard to be as consistently productive from home and just responding to all the new coronavirus stuff is taking a lot of time.

So far I have a couple of colleagues that have / have had the virus, one colleague that lost her father who was in a nursing home, and a friend that had it - he's about 55, relatively mild case, I think yesterday was his first day out of quarantine. Although I am generally a hypochondriac, I don't worry too much about getting it. Despite the scary numbers, the actual case rate is a fraction of one percent. It's all about protecting the healthcare system, because even small percentages add up to large absolute numbers that could exceed hospital bed and ICU capacity.

Hi Jim - I did not know you worked in healthcare - I also do so working as a consultant to the pharma industry - plus like you I started as a finance guy before getting into the commercial side. Some good news continues to be that the modeling has been too aggressive with the healthcare capacity....with more available beds...hopefully with the signs we may indeed be peaking this week - we may have dodged a bigger bullet. Hopefully the good from this experience is we will be far better prepared for the next inevitable pandemic of this scale or greater that does not wait another 100 years to occur! stay safe!!

 

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So far everyone has remained healthy in my camp. Let’s keep flattening that curve as the worst winter ever has turned into the worst year ever 

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