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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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Hi Everyone, 

Haven't had a chance to post over in a while.  I've been following this Doctor overseas.  He posts daily videos.  Really provides a great perspective for whats going on with this virus and sound advice.  Do think we will limp along with this virus until they can some type of therapeutic treatment for it and eventually a vaccine.  Been very fortunate to telework.  Probably will be that way for a longtime.  

 

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37 minutes ago, ezweather said:

Hi Everyone, 

Haven't had a chance to post over in a while.  I've been following this Doctor overseas.  He posts daily videos.  Really provides a great perspective for whats going on with this virus and sound advice.  Do think we will limp along with this virus until they can some type of therapeutic treatment for it and eventually a vaccine.  Been very fortunate to telework.  Probably will be that way for a longtime.  

 

Hey John.  Hope all is well.  I remember seeing a video from him last month.  But he has to go out golfing more often. 

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9 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Hey John.  Hope all is well.  I remember seeing a video from him last month.  But he has to go out golfing more often. 

Hi Tony,

Yeh, thankfully, its boring here and thankfully no one sick from this virus.  Glad we're tabling the politics.  I can't change folks belief, so no point in arguing with them.  

Yeh, sadly, golfing is out, unless your the only one at there. Hopefully in a few months that can be possible. Although, you can try virtual golf, just make sure you don't crash or hit anything in the house... LOL 

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3 hours ago, ezweather said:

Hi Tony,

Yeh, thankfully, its boring here and thankfully no one sick from this virus.  Glad we're tabling the politics.  I can't change folks belief, so no point in arguing with them.  

Yeh, sadly, golfing is out, unless your the only one at there. Hopefully in a few months that can be possible. Although, you can try virtual golf, just make sure you don't crash or hit anything in the house... LOL 

I get the impression we are going to turn the corner at least in terms of treatment options that any second wave is not going to be as bad maybe even manageable. Nearly every company out there (other than Merck, my neighbor works for them)  is working on treatment options.  I even read that an old TB drug is already in a phase II trial.  If we can get people to not have to get to the ventilator phase (I saw a video this morning there is only a 1 in 5 chance of coming off it once on it), that is a win/win in sooooooo many ways.  China sold us a dry build of goods even the studies coming out of there saying the emphasis was elderly/pre-existing conditions, every one else just a bad flu. I think the under 70/60/50 crowd went along business as usual and now some of them are ending up on ventilators.  This has been the surprise.  My nephew (28) lost a friend, this does not happen with the flu.  I don't know if Camden County ever differentiated this, but most of the COVID confirmed cases (before they stopped reporting) in Burlington County were people under 60.

From a social distancing perspective a single person walking a golf course is by no way putting anyone in harm's way assuming he/she pays on line and does not even have to go into the pro shop.  They are businesses as much are restaurants, but the optics of golfing is not looked the same way.  I do play virtual golf on this WGT web site, only place I can drive the ball 300 yards and give Tombo a run for his money. ;)  Stay well.

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I get the impression we are going to turn the corner at least in terms of treatment options that any second wave is not going to be as bad maybe even manageable. Nearly every company out there (other than Merck, my neighbor works for them)  is working on treatment options.  I even read that an old TB drug is already in a phase II trial.  If we can get people to not have to get to the ventilator phase (I saw a video this morning there is only a 1 in 5 chance of coming off it once on it), that is a win/win in sooooooo many ways.  China sold us a dry build of goods even the studies coming out of there saying the emphasis was elderly/pre-existing conditions, every one else just a bad flu. I think the under 70/60/50 crowd went along business as usual and now some of them are ending up on ventilators.  This has been the surprise.  My nephew (28) lost a friend, this does not happen with the flu.  I don't know if Camden County ever differentiated this, but most of the COVID confirmed cases (before they stopped reporting) in Burlington County were people under 60.

From a social distancing perspective a single person walking a golf course is by no way putting anyone in harm's way assuming he/she pays on line and does not even have to go into the pro shop.  They are businesses as much are restaurants, but the optics of golfing is not looked the same way.  I do play virtual golf on this WGT web site, only place I can drive the ball 300 yards and give Tombo a run for his money. ;)  Stay well.

I can remember reading some of the earliest papers from China in Jan/Feb. Data from China never said this was a "only a bad flu" for younger patient. That is an interpretation that developed downstream of the published data from China. Older and pre-existing clearly had higher risk, yes, but not a slam dunk  for younger patients (20-50) and long hospital stays for those that developed pneumonia and survived.

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I get the impression we are going to turn the corner at least in terms of treatment options that any second wave is not going to be as bad maybe even manageable. Nearly every company out there (other than Merck, my neighbor works for them)  is working on treatment options.  I even read that an old TB drug is already in a phase II trial.  If we can get people to not have to get to the ventilator phase (I saw a video this morning there is only a 1 in 5 chance of coming off it once on it), that is a win/win in sooooooo many ways.  China sold us a dry build of goods even the studies coming out of there saying the emphasis was elderly/pre-existing conditions, every one else just a bad flu. I think the under 70/60/50 crowd went along business as usual and now some of them are ending up on ventilators.  This has been the surprise.  My nephew (28) lost a friend, this does not happen with the flu.  I don't know if Camden County ever differentiated this, but most of the COVID confirmed cases (before they stopped reporting) in Burlington County were people under 60.

From a social distancing perspective a single person walking a golf course is by no way putting anyone in harm's way assuming he/she pays on line and does not even have to go into the pro shop.  They are businesses as much are restaurants, but the optics of golfing is not looked the same way.  I do play virtual golf on this WGT web site, only place I can drive the ball 300 yards and give Tombo a run for his money. ;)  Stay well.

Good info Tony on the therapeutics.  If they can help keep you out of the hospital, that will be awesome.  The other big test we need to see is the antibody test, which will help confirm if you had been exposed.  That will be huge on how all can get back to work.  Still, I think its going to be a while, before things get in order.  Anyway, hopefully, everyone stays clear of this horrible virus.  I thinks its safe to say, not many folks will be doing any business travel for a long while until we have some sound protocol to keep this virus cases at minimal levels.  For now, hopefully everyone will not catch this virus.  

Found a really nice handy dashboard setup for Camden County.  
https://www.camdencounty.com/service/covid-19-updates-and-preparations/most-recent-updates/

 

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3 hours ago, Chubbs said:

I can remember reading some of the earliest papers from China in Jan/Feb. Data from China never said this was a "only a bad flu" for younger patient. That is an interpretation that developed downstream of the published data from China. Older and pre-existing clearly had higher risk, yes, but not a slam dunk  for younger patients (20-50) and long hospital stays for those that developed pneumonia and survived.

You are probably right, could have been more of an interpretation.  Found a link to a pretty extensive dashboard of where we are with COVID19:

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-vaccine-treatment-covid-19-so-far/?fbclid=IwAR0UhvrPlpoRbsi1yle_g8ygF4zicqmmkxqUQpzMoISaMduyAMRnUQqiYLQ

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In the past 2 weeks we've improved from  rapid exponential to roughly linear growth with nearly constant new cases per day.  Hopefully we can start to turn down the new cases this week.

Screenshot_2020-04-06 91-DIVOC Flip the script on COVID-19.png

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My home's exterior has never be more clean than it is right now!  Spent all weekend power washing everything from gutters to windows to masonry walkways, decks and patios.  I hope the weekends stay drying the next few weeks so we can enjoy the outdoors and get out of the house!  Hope everyone is staying safe and healthy!  

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Below is another real world example of how hyroxychloroquine continues to see increasing successful usage among the physician community!!  Again despite some misleading news reports -  any physician may prescribe this...the attached gives them more support to use this on their sickest patients. The advice this doc gives is wise it is NOT meant for those with mild to moderate cases of the virus....only for the sickest.

https://6abc.com/health/la-doctor-seeing-success-with-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-covid-19/6079864/

 

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2 hours ago, Chubbs said:

In the past 2 weeks we've improved from  rapid exponential to roughly linear growth with nearly constant new cases per day.  Hopefully we can start to turn down the new cases this week.

Screenshot_2020-04-06 91-DIVOC Flip the script on COVID-19.png

Is there a link to these graphs Charlie?  As usual I can't find it.

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Hi Everyone,

Man, was today's weather nice. It helps immensely.  Now onto reading up on my cases in Camden County.  

Not so good today... 121 cases confirmed today.  Just unreal how you see the age of folks being hit from all ages. 

Not sure I passed the links along, but here they are.  Some nice dashboards of late for Burlington County and Camden County.  I really like how they breakdown each down on how many cases they have.  

http://burlconj.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/16e1e482d1a446a3b4f73fee4592b430

https://www.camdencounty.com/service/covid-19-updates-and-preparations/most-recent-updates/

Watching Dr. John Cambell video today, he mentioned that there have been fake testing sites.  That is just awful.  
https://abc7ny.com/fake-pop-up-covid-19-testing-sites-offering-quick-results-for-cash/6078776/

He did mentioned that Thailand had the best success on how they have kept the cases down.  The biggest thing is massive testing and that antibody test.  

Hoping to see these slow down, but probably confirming how many folks got sick last week.  

Be safe everyone.. 

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6 hours ago, ezweather said:

Hi Everyone,

Man, was today's weather nice. It helps immensely.  Now onto reading up on my cases in Camden County.  

Not so good today... 121 cases confirmed today.  Just unreal how you see the age of folks being hit from all ages. 

Not sure I passed the links along, but here they are.  Some nice dashboards of late for Burlington County and Camden County.  I really like how they breakdown each down on how many cases they have.  

http://burlconj.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/16e1e482d1a446a3b4f73fee4592b430

https://www.camdencounty.com/service/covid-19-updates-and-preparations/most-recent-updates/

Watching Dr. John Cambell video today, he mentioned that there have been fake testing sites.  That is just awful.  
https://abc7ny.com/fake-pop-up-covid-19-testing-sites-offering-quick-results-for-cash/6078776/

He did mentioned that Thailand had the best success on how they have kept the cases down.  The biggest thing is massive testing and that antibody test.  

Hoping to see these slow down, but probably confirming how many folks got sick last week.  

Be safe everyone.. 

Not to mention that fake national two week lock down with National Guard deployment coming to a theater near you.

I didn't catch the Governor's whole press conference yesterday.  But late last week he said the lag in testing results was up to 12 days.  This fits the graph:

22.JPG.bb48fe68c5f7200b8d9c1da3abab5f95.JPG

Testing, testing, testing, testing.

On March 4th when Camden (and Burlington) reached the red zone, there was one confirmed case in New Jersey,  158 confirmed cases (out of 866 total tests performed) in the U.S.

One month later there were 34,124 confirmed cases in NJ and 311,357 confirmed cases in the United States.

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Great interactive Chester County Map below - that puts this in a bit better perspective....the one metric % of the population is showing that in the MOST infected township (Easttwown) there are still 99.85% of the population that never had it or if they did resolved before requiring treatment. This is why I am hoping we start to get some of the less impacted places in our country (assuming they stay low or level in case rates) back to work in May. My continuing fear is the resulting economic downturn of not having Americans working will result in an actual depression - which some experts have modeled to begin as early as mid to late summer if we can't get as much of the country as possible out working.. If that were to occur the devastation, suffering from that disaster would far outpace any impact of a pandemic for a much greater % of every township in this entire country. The problem we will face will be that when and if governors start to give the go ahead back to work order...without a vaccine till 2021 at the earliest - states that open will certainly continue to have people dying of this virus right through this year and into 2021. So if we can't afford to wait for a vaccine and we can't wait till the virus is eradicated....when is the right time to get us back to work? I can already see our network newscasts highlight the number of deaths in each state since their Governor's gave the go back to work order. They will be damned if they do and damned if they don't. I do not have the answer...just posing this most difficult question without an answer.

Let's all hope the recent positive trends continue and that our early hints that the most dire models may have been too pessimistic come to fruition. Social distancing is working!! Stay strong!!

 

https://chesco.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/975082d579454c3ca7877db0a44e61ca

 

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https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-has-ushered-in-an-economic-ice-age-when-can-we-expect-activity-to-heat-up-again-2020-04-06

 

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Gov. Murphy has shut down the state and county parks. I guess essential doesn't include exercise anymore. There will be a price to pay for these Draconian measures.

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