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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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6 minutes ago, snowlurker said:

Good analogy 

If I would have known then what I know now, (similar testing result lag time), I would have shut down any state the day of the first positive test result.   Still that would not have been good enough.  I am sure those restrictions would have went over real well.  

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29 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

At first glance I thought your chart and my table were in conflict, but no they say the same.  Only about 100,000 new test results each day.   The moment Governor Murphy shut NJ down, there were only 20K national tests performed.  That is how one lunges to tackle a running back at midfield while he is leaping into the end zone for a touchdown.

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So if its leveling off...

a) Not enough testing is happening

b) Symptoms are mild for many who are infected and they are staying home and not bothering with testing

c) Social distancing is working

 

I'm looking at Covid-19 like flood waters. You can't stop flooding, you can suppress it or redirect it at best. You can build a dam to hold it back for a finite period of time. Eventually, there will be a leak, and another, and another, and so on. The water gets high enough where it begins to find other paths around the dam, HOWEVER, we all hope the dam holds and keeps damage to a minimum and the waters will eventually subside. 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, cbelke said:

 

 

So if its leveling off...

a) Not enough testing is happening

b) Symptoms are mild for many who are infected and they are staying home and not bothering with testing

c) Social distancing is working

 

I'm looking at Covid-19 like flood waters. You can't stop flooding, you can suppress it or redirect it at best. You can build a dam to hold it back for a finite period of time. Eventually, there will be a leak, and another, and another, and so on. The water gets high enough where it begins to find other paths around the dam, HOWEVER, we all hope the dam holds and keeps damage to a minimum and the waters will eventually subside. 

 

 

 

It would be great if many more than we realize have it/had it and really wasn't that big a deal.  We can't totally stop it, but at least we'd be that much closer to the peak.  I don't know how soon rapid testing results can come to fruition, but then we can finally stop playing looking thru the rear view mirror.

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20 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

For the first time since God knows when the number of hospital discharges > number of hospital admissions in New York State.   I don't know if that is just COVID or all.  Either way for one day, there are more beds.

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A doctor posted on another site that is working in NY with Covid patients at one of these hospitals (he used to post at American, I think they called him Kaner if anyone remembers), that say you discharge 500, and if admission is 100, that actually means you filled the 500 plus took in an additional 100.  I'm not sure if that is correct, but I didn't see a reason to question him.  I'm hoping he is mistaken though.  Maybe someone here would know.

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55 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

A doctor posted on another site that is working in NY with Covid patients at one of these hospitals (he used to post at American, I think they called him Kaner if anyone remembers), that say you discharge 500, and if admission is 100, that actually means you filled the 500 plus took in an additional 100.  I'm not sure if that is correct, but I didn't see a reason to question him.  I'm hoping he is mistaken though.  Maybe someone here would know.

I wouldn't know how that works.   It was about the same differential today (about even).  Everything else the Governor said today wasn't too good.  Not unexpected, but nonetheless.

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Here in Pennington the hoarding of toilette paper continues unabated as a line forms at 7:00AM at the local market and when the door opens it look like the videos you see on Black Friday the Walmart opens whether or not there has been a delivery. Everyone rushes down to aisle 12 to see if some paper came in. This is anecdotal from an employee i know.

My guess for golf courses opening is mid June with masks and no carts. May be we should have a pool on when thing open up again. I'm sure Tony would donate a basket of figs as the prize.

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On the lighter because side because there's only so much misery you can absorb before it has a detrimental effect on your health. 

Since the mad toilet paper hoard last month I have seen some floating around in the supermarkets & wholesale clubs however it was brands I never heard of, probably military grade stuff that's a notch above sandpaper.

On a positive note I literally can't remember the time I put gas in my car

 

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1 hour ago, Harbourton said:

Here in Pennington the hoarding of toilette paper continues unabated as a line forms at 7:00AM at the local market and when the door opens it look like the videos you see on Black Friday the Walmart opens whether or not there has been a delivery. Everyone rushes down to aisle 12 to see if some paper came in. This is anecdotal from an employee i know.

My guess for golf courses opening is mid June with masks and no carts. May be we should have a pool on when thing open up again. I'm sure Tony would donate a basket of figs as the prize.

I might actually get figs this year thanks to Tombo's mild winter.

Well now there is a toilet paper shortage because everyone hoarded it.  I still don't get it, aren't the hoarders living off of their hoarded toilet paper?  Or maybe they can't get to their stash in the guest room, because their hoarded paper towels and sanitary wipes are blocking the way?

I never heard of this toilet paper Royale Original?  But we have it now.

I was kind of hoping May 1st for golf course openings.  The problem with these confirmed cases is that it is still last week's news, so when things do get better with them, they are better than we think.

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Speaking on the lighter side of things, this happened yesterday.  I turned the footage over to the police and they alerted local media.  Am thankful that I'm one of the few still employed as our Smorgasbord has been closed down since the 16th.

https://local21news.com/news/local/woman-cuts-line-at-shady-maple-slaps-another-for-not-maintaining-social-distancing

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3 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

On the lighter because side because there's only so much misery you can absorb before it has a detrimental effect on your health. 

Since the mad toilet paper hoard last month I have seen some floating around in the supermarkets & wholesale clubs however it was brands I never heard of, probably military grade stuff that's a notch above sandpaper.

 

 

The stuff that literally dissolves in your hand. Lol. Better off using tissues (in an emergency) obviously probably not good for the sewer in excess. 

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11 hours ago, Parsley said:

The stuff that literally dissolves in your hand. Lol. Better off using tissues (in an emergency) obviously probably not good for the sewer in excess. 

I've been going to Sam's Club for many years so I normally buy things in bulk, was fortunate the day I decided to go 3 weeks ago just happened to be a couple days before the hoard so I was able to get a large pack of the name brand stuff.

Aside from paper products & hand sanitizer the super market was in pretty good shape yesterday.

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On 4/3/2020 at 11:08 AM, frankdp23 said:

A doctor posted on another site that is working in NY with Covid patients at one of these hospitals (he used to post at American, I think they called him Kaner if anyone remembers), that say you discharge 500, and if admission is 100, that actually means you filled the 500 plus took in an additional 100.  I'm not sure if that is correct, but I didn't see a reason to question him.  I'm hoping he is mistaken though.  Maybe someone here would know.

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This was today's graphic.  How a person smarter to me described it,  the total discharge really has nothing to do with people currently hospitalized.

So it is misleading IMO, currently hospitalized includes new admissions - new discharged.  So the net is 1,095 more, not 500 less.

The one thing that has not changed and he said it, Governor Cuomo has said that the surge will peak next week.  This has been consistent.  It hasn't been a day 14 surge peak that sits as a day surge peak every day.

 

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Keep the damn politics out of this thread. I don’t care to read it nor do others 

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1 hour ago, tombo82685 said:

Keep the damn politics out of this thread. I don’t care to read it nor do others 

Couldn't agree more.  This pandemic is bad enough without having to get that aspect of it.  There is plenty to talk about that isn't politics related.

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Also, on a lighter note...I purchased a very easy to install bidet off of Amazon a few years ago.  Setting aside the fact that bidets are far superior to TP, the fact that we never really need to worry about TP in this house (at least, only a fraction as much as other families our size) is nice.  🤣

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8 hours ago, mshaffer526 said:

Also, on a lighter note...I purchased a very easy to install bidet off of Amazon a few years ago.  Setting aside the fact that bidets are far superior to TP, the fact that we never really need to worry about TP in this house (at least, only a fraction as much as other families our size) is nice.  🤣

88 Thoughts Everyone Has When They First Stumble On A Bidet

 

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Sorry I took a 12 hour social media vacation for a while to get my sanity back.

Tom has asked me to moderate this thread days ago and the next political post that is on this thread, I am closing this thread down. 

STOP TESTING THE LIMITS & DON'T PM ME YOU ARE SORRY, WHAT DID  I DO??????????????

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Better news continues to come out of Europe and I hope the lag time we are behind is less than what we think.

Yeah easier for Switzerland, than us.  But the active case graphs for both Italy and Spain are slowing.

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Italy just reported their lowest daily death total (hard to believe this is considered good news given the number) since March 19th.  There was no Sunday lower tendency reports in March.

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Some more good news from the models showing we may indeed have overestimated the health system impact (below is NY State)....good news - bad news is our worst couple weeks are ahead but the efforts of all seem to be working!

 

image.png.8095d7bca42e775ac751196cb5588d0f.png

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Just caught piece's of Governor Cuomo's press conference,  let's see where Monday & Tuesday go, but this is not just a Sunday statistical quirk looking back at March's Sundays.

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26 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Some more good news from the models showing we may indeed have overestimated the health system impact (below is NY State)....good news - bad news is our worst couple weeks are ahead but the efforts of all seem to be working!

 

image.png.8095d7bca42e775ac751196cb5588d0f.png

I don't understand if this model was truly run on April 1st as the web site says, why it did not adjust the number of people hospitalized to about 12,500 instead of its median of 50,000 used.   Yeah it is much better than this model has (NY today is still about 3,500 over capacity today) forecast.  But in comparison to covidactnow, this UWA model still looks like the Euro.  NJ is using the CHIME model, so I would hope that is more accurate than either of these models and similar to ones NY is looking at.

 

 

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