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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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Florida, Texas, Arkansas, California South and North Carolina all hot states are spiking Warm weather will have no effect on the spread of the virus. Any attempt at returning to indoor activities will result in spikes  Not to mention Brazil and other countries that are considered warm all year around have seen increases. Italy is an exception but they had a Draconian lockdown.

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“Personally”, the only benefit I see to summer is it makes the pandemic less depressing as days are sunnier and longer and you are able to get outside (and be comfortable) more often. Dealing with this or another lockdown in November and December would be brutal. 

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32 minutes ago, Parsley said:

 Dealing with this or another lockdown in November and December would be brutal. 

This. Let's hope not.

 

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15 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

I believe it's pretty much accepted that summer temps & sunshine do have an affect on the virus. Indirectly during hot weather more people in close proximity at confined air conditioned locations are most likely a significant factor.

 

15 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Florida, Texas, Arkansas, California South and North Carolina all hot states are spiking Warm weather will have no effect on the spread of the virus. Any attempt at returning to indoor activities will result in spikes  Not to mention Brazil and other countries that are considered warm all year around have seen increases. Italy is an exception but they had a Draconian lockdown.


Nate Silver has posted about this correlation of cases spiking where the heat is driving people indoors. Could it have even been here on the forum that I first saw that? I recently saw it retweeted by an SPC forecaster that I greatly respect (on his private account). It makes sense that the virus spreads more easily indoors and can’t survive on a surface outdoors in the hot sun. But the question is, why don’t we see continued summertime flu infections in those same states with hot summer climates? It would seem to indicate that hot weather has no impact on the coronavirus itself, it is able to remain active despite the weather and it is only the difference in behavior - i.e., time spent indoors in those hotter climates - that is relevant. And the benefit of being outdoors is probably more about the dispersal/dilution in the open, moving air, regardless of temperature or sunlight, compared to contained, stagnant indoor air. Just a layman’s speculation, FWIW.

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Unless you stay in your beach house rental or on the beach nothing else is safe. The markets, restaurants, shops, liquor stores etc. will have been recently occupied by the group that is shedding the virus fastest with NO SYMTOMS.  Good Luck.

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5 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

Unless you stay in your beach house rental or on the beach nothing else is safe. The markets, restaurants, shops, liquor stores etc. will have been recently occupied by the group that is shedding the virus fastest with NO SYMTOMS.  Good Luck.

Thanks for the info eeeyore 

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Ok just for some perspective NJ has 172,000 positive cases divided by 9,000,000. = Do the math. If you have morbidity issues or age you have to be careful. But this is not the end of the world.

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14 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Ok just for some perspective NJ has 172,000 positive cases divided by 9,000,000. = Do the math. If you have morbidity issues or age you have to be careful. But this is not the end of the world.

Exactly. That's 2%. So a 2% probability that any given person I encounter has the virus. (That's NJ; other areas are lower, and overall US average is still under 1%). It's actually even lower than that, because the 172,000 is total cumulative cases, not currently active cases. I suspect if you pull out the concentration of cases in nursing homes and facilities, it drops further for the rest of the general population. You can probably also pull out the larger cities and the percentage for the suburban and rural areas of NJ will be lower. Then you have people that are actually sick and (hopefully) staying home. What percentage of the currently active cases are asymptomatic? Put it all together, and the probabilities that a given person you encounter is an *asymptomatic* transmitter of the virus has to be substantially less than 2%.

I'm not trying to minimize it, even tiny percentages add up to large numbers of people and can strain the health system, and personal risk factors are critical to consider. Just agreeing with the sentiment that it's important to keep the relatively low personal/individual risk in perspective when making decisions. Like if SPC has us in a 2% tornado risk, the chance that a tornado is going to hit my neighborhood or house is substantially lower. (This may be a poor analogy, the mets on here will hopefully correct me 🙂 The irony is that many of us walked around blissfully barely aware of the coronavirus in early March, when the prevalence and risk was probably much greater than it is right now.

Of course, I'm no statistician, but I think you would have to start aggregating the probabilities based on how many people you come in contact with. If each person has a 1% probability, does coming into contact with 10 people make your probabilities 10%? Hopefully one of the mets on here can shed some light on that, it's something I've always wondered, I'm too far removed from my college statistics class to remember how that works 🙂

Fortunately, the LBI beach house we rented is on the bay, so I'm perfectly content to spend 90% of my time there. Last year we didn't even go to the beach more than two or three times the whole week, just to do some boogieboarding with the kids for a few hours. Of course, we'll have to go out for groceries, takeout, etc., but we would have to do that at home too. 

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Just some food for thought here. While we're waiting to see if there's an increase in deaths due to the current spike, here's an interesting bit of data from North Carolina. As much as the positive case load has increased, the death count has only fluctuated between 10-20 per day and stayed pretty much flat over that period of time (see visualization here: https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&highlight=North Carolina&show=us-states&y=both&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right#states)

It's worth noting that NC's positive test % has stayed pretty constant as well, so the increase in positive tests may be strictly due to more availability in this case. Arizona's positive test rate, on the other hand, is nearly at 25% now :( I'd be interested to see a breakdown by age in recent cases for them.

image.png

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The doctor that was featured in Pandemic on Netflix was just on Fox Business. He said his consortium has  produced an antivirus drug that was 97% effective in clinical tests on hamsters (I didn't know they use those little critters in tests).  Human trials will begin in September. He also said the current therapeutics are very expensive averaging $3100 a person. Lastly he predicted there will be waves of the pandemic like we are currently experiencing until there are good therapeutics and/or a vaccine.

Anyone thinking of eating indoors at a restaurant in New Jersey:bleh:
 

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

Breaking - NJ indoor dining closed indefinitely...

I have my thoughts but want to hear what others think.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/06/nj-restaurants-not-reopening-for-indoor-dining-this-week-after-knucklehead-crowds-at-bars-ruin-it-for-everyone.html

I wasn’t going to eat indoors anyway anyhow.  But I would mandate bar sections of restaurants off limits. 

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4 hours ago, Harbourton said:

The doctor that was featured in Pandemic on Netflix was just on Fox Business. He said his consortium has  produced an antivirus drug that was 97% effective in clinical tests on hamsters (I didn't know they use those little critters in tests).  Human trials will begin in September. He also said the current therapeutics are very expensive averaging $3100 a person. Lastly he predicted there will be waves of the pandemic like we are currently experiencing until there are good therapeutics and/or a vaccine.

Anyone thinking of eating indoors at a restaurant in New Jersey:bleh:
 

Hamsters can get coronavirus.  They did a study on the effectiveness of masking with them also.  They put cloth barriers between cages of infected and non infected hamsters.  Not only were they effective, but they also cut back on the viral loads on hamsters that did get sick.

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8 hours ago, ACwx said:

Just some food for thought here. While we're waiting to see if there's an increase in deaths due to the current spike, here's an interesting bit of data from North Carolina. As much as the positive case load has increased, the death count has only fluctuated between 10-20 per day and stayed pretty much flat over that period of time (see visualization here: https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&highlight=North Carolina&show=us-states&y=both&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right#states)

It's worth noting that NC's positive test % has stayed pretty constant as well, so the increase in positive tests may be strictly due to more availability in this case. Arizona's positive test rate, on the other hand, is nearly at 25% now :( I'd be interested to see a breakdown by age in recent cases for them.

image.png

That is encouraging. (NC part).

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23 hours ago, ACwx said:

Breaking - NJ indoor dining closed indefinitely...

I have my thoughts but want to hear what others think.

https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/06/nj-restaurants-not-reopening-for-indoor-dining-this-week-after-knucklehead-crowds-at-bars-ruin-it-for-everyone.html

Guess I'll be doing outdoor dining only when my family & I are in Wildwood the last week of July unless something changes over the next month. Guess it will be a takeout or cook at the rental kind of week and if bars are closed, Joe Canal's will be our friends for procuring liquor to drink at the rental.

 

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The devastation to NJ restaurants is immeasurable. They have spent their last dollars on food to prepare for this weekend opening. Many restaurants will  close forever. 

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30 minutes ago, Harbourton said:

The devastation to NJ restaurants is immeasurable. They have spent their last dollars on food to prepare for this weekend opening. Many restaurants will  close forever. 

Remember when this primary goal was to "flatten the curve"? That & "we're all in this together" are nothing but steaming piles of dung. Decisions on both sides of the fence are driven by ideology. Governors that were largely limited are now essentially dictators & drunk with power. For 3 weeks despite widespread complete disregard for CDC protocol the virus wasn't an issue and if we are to believe the narrative that protests haven't led to a spike in cases why do we once again see a picture of a crowded beach attached to nearly ever virus spike story? Beaches are very low risk ventures. 

Botched bar openings half way across the country are just another goal post adjustment with the unfortunate end result being the continued assault on the small businesses. 

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You haven't see anything yet. Wait until the corporate tax get raised from 21% back to 28%. Making us again not being able to compete with foreign entities. All the talk will be about why the unemployment is so high.

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2 hours ago, colonel_kurtz said:

Remember when this primary goal was to "flatten the curve"? That & "we're all in this together" are nothing but steaming piles of dung. Decisions on both sides of the fence are driven by ideology. Governors that were largely limited are now essentially dictators & drunk with power. For 3 weeks despite widespread complete disregard for CDC protocol the virus wasn't an issue and if we are to believe the narrative that protests haven't led to a spike in cases why do we once again see a picture of a crowded beach attached to nearly ever virus spike story? Beaches are very low risk ventures. 

Botched bar openings half way across the country are just another goal post adjustment with the unfortunate end result being the continued assault on the small businesses. 

Republican and Democratic governors should have swapped states on May 1st. As for California, I got nothing. 

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More and more, I'm thinking the key to maintaining socialization and economic vitality is to bring more and more activities outside where shed virus is diluted by copious amounts of circulating air and also degraded by sunlight. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/protests-probably-didnt-lead-to-coronavirus-spikes-but-its-hard-to-know-for-sure/2020/06/30/d8179678-baf5-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

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Won’t be long now til school districts need to implement a plan for the new school year. Can only imagine what’s going on behind closed doors with regards to that. Good luck to those involved finding the “proper” resolution. 

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2 hours ago, snowlurker said:

More and more, I'm thinking the key to maintaining socialization and economic vitality is to bring more and more activities outside where shed virus is diluted by copious amounts of circulating air and also degraded by sunlight. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/protests-probably-didnt-lead-to-coronavirus-spikes-but-its-hard-to-know-for-sure/2020/06/30/d8179678-baf5-11ea-8cf5-9c1b8d7f84c6_story.html

I’d go with we don’t know for sure, or it didn’t help.

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2 hours ago, Parsley said:

Won’t be long now til school districts need to implement a plan for the new school year. Can only imagine what’s going on behind closed doors with regards to that. Good luck to those involved finding the “proper” resolution. 

Council Rock school district sent around surveys to parents, asking about level of agreement/disagreement with various proposed measures. Not sure how transparent they will be with the results, or how much majority opinion will ultimately influence the decision makers (who obviously have to take in other input as well, such as CDC and state-level public health recommendations, and state government regulations), but it was nice to at least have some input and feel a part of the process.

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Good news from the vaccine world - an early stage trial from Pfizer shows positive results, as a study of 45 people found those with lower doses of the experimental vaccine had roughly 2-3 times as many neutralizing antibodies as recovered Covid patients. Pfizer is also 1 of the 3 candidates funded by the "Operation Warp Speed" government program. If things continue to go well, they are optimistic about production by the end of this year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/pfizer-stock-jumps-after-it-reports-positive-data-in-early-stage-coronavirus-vaccine-trial.html

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