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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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NJ hospitalizations under 2,000 for the first time since March. New cases also continue to decline steadily - the "midweek peak" this week is roughly 700 cases, much less than previous weeks (interestingly this is less than the number of reported cases this past weekend, usually it's the opposite) but this is great to see especially as the total number of tests continues to ramp up.

Still a long way to go, but it's nice to see trends continuing in this direction.

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20 minutes ago, ACwx said:

NJ hospitalizations under 2,000 for the first time since March. New cases also continue to decline steadily - the "midweek peak" this week is roughly 700 cases, much less than previous weeks (interestingly this is less than the number of reported cases this past weekend, usually it's the opposite) but this is great to see especially as the total number of tests continues to ramp up.

Still a long way to go, but it's nice to see trends continuing in this direction.

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Yeah testing is wayyyyyyy up. Big difference between now and March.

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6 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Now this is a positive trend:

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Jeez I didn't realize we were at 37% at one point! That's crazy to think about now. If this trend continues we might be under 1% by the end of June.

The next "goal" to look for IMO is consistently less than 500 new cases per day. There might be more of a plateau in the coming weeks as Phase 2 goes into effect, but honestly I don't think that will affect the trends all that much.

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42 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Jeez I didn't realize we were at 37% at one point! That's crazy to think about now. If this trend continues we might be under 1% by the end of June.

The next "goal" to look for IMO is consistently less than 500 new cases per day. There might be more of a plateau in the coming weeks as Phase 2 goes into effect, but honestly I don't think that will affect the trends all that much.

Yeah we will hit some plateau; from a health crisis perspective we definitely have created capacity. COVID hospitalizations are down I think by about 75% from the peak and even in their designated southern third section they are down by about 50%.  Missouri cases are kind of holding steady, which is a great sign after “Ozarks” Memorial Day Weekend.

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16 hours ago, Harbourton said:

Two weeks from now will be critical after all the close contact from the protests.

Maybe like the Ozarks pool parties, daytime, outdoors and youthful age might dampen the spike.  On the other hand, the nighttime rioters and looters are on their own.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Yeah, that mass infection was a big story last night on the news. Hopefully not a sign of things to come in the upcoming weeks. It’s obviously many are back to gathering with family and/or friends (pre covid routines) whether it’s at home or on vacations. Should be interesting to see how numbers move. 

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Would I be right in saying if you're going to start hanging out with friends / family again, you should all get a test first just to be safe? It would put me a lot more at ease if I was in that situation and all of us had tested negative (I know the false positive rate is really high but I believe the false negative rate is much much smaller). That being said, I thought I had read something a while ago about the tests being rather uncomfortable to receive, and I'm not sure how much they cost or anything like that.

Also worth noting that the person with the virus was gathering with people indoors, not the smartest move. If they had just been out on the beach I doubt 11 people would have been infected.

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2 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Would I be right in saying if you're going to start hanging out with friends / family again, you should all get a test first just to be safe? It would put me a lot more at ease if I was in that situation and all of us had tested negative (I know the false positive rate is really high but I believe the false negative rate is much much smaller). That being said, I thought I had read something a while ago about the tests being rather uncomfortable to receive, and I'm not sure how much they cost or anything like that.

Also worth noting that the person with the virus was gathering with people indoors, not the smartest move. If they had just been out on the beach I doubt 11 people would have been infected.

As far as comfort level goes, my daughter got tested today. They only swabbed just inside the nasal cavity and didn't stab her brain like some of those pictures seemed to show.

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1 hour ago, ACwx said:

Would I be right in saying if you're going to start hanging out with friends / family again, you should all get a test first just to be safe? It would put me a lot more at ease if I was in that situation and all of us had tested negative (I know the false positive rate is really high but I believe the false negative rate is much much smaller). That being said, I thought I had read something a while ago about the tests being rather uncomfortable to receive, and I'm not sure how much they cost or anything like that.

Also worth noting that the person with the virus was gathering with people indoors, not the smartest move. If they had just been out on the beach I doubt 11 people would have been infected.

My wife and I are racking up the comorbidities on this and we might have gained another one from an observational study result last week, so our approach (just don't meet with anyone outside your small circle of friends/family) would be different from yours.  I "think" outside is much less riskier, indoors in any setting with a denser collection of people you don't know who they have been in contact with, riskier.  Plus these social settings are not set up for wearing masks.

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24 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I actually think that was a pretty reasonable article. Biggest theme of course is the virus dictates the timeline for activities. Personally I think once certain activities become available again, I don't think time by itself will change my mind whether or not I want to do something. Until there's a vaccine / treatment, only thing I can think of that might persuade me is level of testing and stuff like that. Otherwise there isn't really any "fun" for the duration 😞

Couldn't help but notice the 2nd wave was brought up again. I 100% understand the need to prepare just in case it happens, I just hope it doesn't get blown out of proportions if it does. Wouldn't shock me if there was a slight increase in cases this upcoming winter compared to late summer strictly due to seasonality, but a lot more people are going to be cautious about their health moving forward than they were 3 months ago. We'll never know the true number of cases that the US had in March because of low testing, but I'd be skeptical of the numbers getting anywhere near that high unless something unforeseen happens like a mutation, God forbid.

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My wife & I started hanging out with family & friends a month ago. This past weekend was the biggest gathering so far - 10 of us (all her family members aside from me). I think it will vary depending on everyone's comfort level, but I'm a musician and I would start playing live shows at various bars & supermarkets as soon as the venues are willing to have live music again.

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On 4/27/2020 at 6:25 AM, Chubbs said:

Good news hopefully and interesting story. Anecdotal evidence that Pepcid can be effective, supported by molecular modeling. Now in double-blind test in NY.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/new-york-clinical-trial-quietly-tests-heartburn-remedy-against-coronavirus#

 

Still awaiting results from the double-blind Pepcid  test. In the meantime a couple of recent studies are encouraging.

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-30934/v1

https://gut.bmj.com/content/early/2020/06/04/gutjnl-2020-321852

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The week is over (when the state started the current dashboard), so I can't jinx this. With the way some states are starting to burn, I'll take the victory lap now before it is too late.

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3 hours ago, ACwx said:

I'd toast these numbers, we are going in the right direction:

NJ 6/15 Info: Spot Positivity for 6/11 was 2.6%. COVID related hospitalizations below 1,400 three days in a row: 1351 vs 1391 yesterday. The peak was 8,293 on 4/14. Critical care patients back over 400: 402 vs 386 yesterday. Patients on ventilators below 300 three days in a row: 267 vs 285 yesterday. There were at least 74 new COVID patients hospitalized yesterday and 107 patients were discharged. New confirmed cases steady at 274 from 276 yesterday. This was lower than last Monday's value and the lowest daily total since March 19th! 1f642.png:) Essex County was the overnight county leader. There are 651 "Cases Unassigned", down from yesterday. Burlington County was in the middle of the county pack. Warren County at least two days in a row with no new confirmed cases!

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If you read prognostications, the states that are experiencing an uptick in new cases were always lagging behind New Jersey/New York and were expected to show an increase in cases. New Jersey is the real petri dish for a second wave. Protests will have an affect on these numbers.

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3 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

I'd toast these numbers, we are going in the right direction:

NJ 6/15 Info: Spot Positivity for 6/11 was 2.6%. COVID related hospitalizations below 1,400 three days in a row: 1351 vs 1391 yesterday. The peak was 8,293 on 4/14. Critical care patients back over 400: 402 vs 386 yesterday. Patients on ventilators below 300 three days in a row: 267 vs 285 yesterday. There were at least 74 new COVID patients hospitalized yesterday and 107 patients were discharged. New confirmed cases steady at 274 from 276 yesterday. This was lower than last Monday's value and the lowest daily total since March 19th! 1f642.png🙂 Essex County was the overnight county leader. There are 651 "Cases Unassigned", down from yesterday. Burlington County was in the middle of the county pack. Warren County at least two days in a row with no new confirmed cases!

As much as I roll my eyes sometimes about how slowly the state has re-opened (especially without any reasoning other than "data determines dates"), I have to be honest and realize we are one of the top states in the nation when it comes to the rate of declining new cases (and other metrics). Something is working. New York, Virginia, and Illinois are also on a good pace over the last several weeks. If we keep declining at this pace, by July 4 we'll be between 100-300 new cases a day and perhaps less than 500 total hospitalizations.

Play around with the data here: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states&highlight=New Jersey&show=us-states&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&data-source=jhu#states

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