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snowlurker

COVID-19 check-in

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4 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Biggest news out of this is that remdesivir actually seems to help prevent progression of disease.  That’s a VERY big deal and it reinforces our thoughts with actually most of these potential agents that EARLY therapy is better.  We need to identify these patients quickly and begin treatment ASAP.

Once patients get to me in the ICU, there isn’t a lot as far as potentially curative or mitigating drug therapy we can do for patients—we’re providing supportive care and holding on for a wild prolonged ride.

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NJ 5/23 Info: I wish as far as new cases are concerned that this was a Wednesday and not a Memorial Day weekend day. COVID related hospitalizations fell to 2,974 patients vs 3,049 yesterday. The peak was 8,293 on 4/14. Critical care patients below 900 three days in a row: 806 vs 846 yesterday. Patients on ventilators below 700 two days in a row: 611 vs 674 yesterday. There were 193 new COVID patients hospitalized yesterday and 268 discharges. New confirmed cases fell (oh I wish this was not a weekend day) to 485 vs 1,394 yesterday. Mercer County first time I recall had the new daily case lead. There are 1110 "Cases Unassigned", down from yesterday. Burlington County had a better new case day, but still remained the 5th highest county for the day.

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23 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

To me it is a half truth.  They are not with-holding confirmed coronavirus cases, but by combining antibody tests (which I think are serology here on the GA site) in with the coronavirus tests they are coming up with a lower positivity rate.  This would to a stat geek like me infer that they are catching all of the Covid cases when in reality they may not.

So yes this bump up in testing (which I thought was great) is polluted by antibody tests being thrown in.  BTW from the article of listed states it is not just a (D) or (R) state that is doing it.   

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BTW these hospitalizations and ICU numbers suck in comparison with NJ.  NJ has 3,049 COVID patients hospitalized and 846 patients in ICU beds. Again assuming both state numbers are legit. 

However, it is critical that we do include and hopefully test as many folks as possible....as this will no doubt help highlight that while this virus was highly contagious....the true mortality rate will be much lower than it was originally thought to be....or even what it appears to be now. Hopefully people are considering all data points and not rushing to any judgements as we will not know the true death rate of this virus for quite a while longer.

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Dramatic decrease in new positive cases - 443! I didn't mean to demean some peoples great efforts to home school just contrast with other people who are not as fortunate to have a nuclear family or quite as much money. The church thing is getting to me. I will try not to go on a rant.

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55 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

However, it is critical that we do include and hopefully test as many folks as possible....as this will no doubt help highlight that while this virus was highly contagious....the true mortality rate will be much lower than it was originally thought to be....or even what it appears to be now. Hopefully people are considering all data points and not rushing to any judgements as we will not know the true death rate of this virus for quite a while longer.

I agree Paul. Test, (test, test, test, test) isolate and treat. Most researchers are putting the IFR at somewhere between 0.5% to 1.0%.  I am not going to argue with Dr. Gottlieb that the true number of cases is 10 times the confirmed.  That would put his estimate at 0.6%.  I just read another post of someone's wife who lost both their father and uncle.  0.6% with no herd immunity is still a depressing number. Only thing I have with combining the antibody test with Covid test results, it erroneously decreases the positivity rate and makes one think you are not missing as many cases. This could lead to people letting down their guard.

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I have no children but when I was a child, back in the 60s, I missed the last month of third grade and the first half of fourth grade. I had a life threatening infection (staph) and then a bad broken leg. Healed fine just took some time. My parents hired a tutor who came to the house and I had homework, not ideal. I was behind when I got back to in-person classes. Then I got a little lazy. It took me to well into fifth grade to catch up, but catch up I did. More or less. 😉
 

Yes,you are right, my childhood experience was not during a pandemic.  And yes, my parents could afford a private tutor. I throw it out for what it is worth. 

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I decided to cancel my Plains storm chasing trip. I have been chasing the Plains each year since 1996. I only missed two previous years, the years my kids were born (poor planning, birthdays during tornado season 😏) COVID was the main reason, both directly and indirectly. I consider overall COVID risk to any particular individual to be low (i.e., per capita rates less than 1%), but in the context of whatever the risk is, it surely gets multiplied by the activities involved in storm chasing. Not the actual chasing of course, when you’re just in the car driving or standing out on the side of the road in the middle of nowhere. But flying, staying in a different hotel every night, eating out three meals a day, going in and out of truck stops and convenience stores several times per day, etc. I heard some areas of the Plains, Amarillo for example, actually have a higher per capita rate than some big cities, maybe over 2% in Amarillo. I think some of the towns out in western TX and western KS may just now be peaking. Maybe even more of an influence on my decision were the indirect COVID impacts - the inconvenience of having to wipe down hotel room surfaces every night after being on the road all day and checking in late; restaurants being at reduced capacity, take out only, or closing early because they have reduced volume. (It’s hard enough getting something to eat in some of those towns after a certain time). Bars not open in some of the states. (What to do on “off days”?) Having to worry about the differing reopening status in the different states - yet another variable for picking among daily chase target areas. Also it just wouldn’t seem as much like a vacation. Everything just feels weird out there, doesn’t it? I mean, I hate even going to the grocery store, I feel like I’m in a dystopian science fiction film. Another indirect COVID issue is my family - they have all been cooped up for about 10 weeks now, and it seemed unfair to add to that stress by leaving them alone for two weeks. My wife gets no break from the kids if they are not in school and can’t go anywhere. Also I thought it was a bad time to be away from work, seeing as though we are a healthcare company (although I am on the finance side). Would sound weird to tell people I was suddenly gallivanting all over the country, after working from home for 10 weeks.

Other Plains chasers (at least the ones who don’t live there) have made similar decisions, while others still made their trips. There was a huge thread on the storm chasing forum about this, at the beginning it was focused on whether it was legally/ethically appropriate to chase given lockdowns in the Plains states, but as all states had reopened to some degree (or had never shut down) this became less of an issue.


Just thought I’d share with this community of likeminded weather lovers. It’s a pursuit I have a huge passion for and look forward to every year so it was profoundly disappointing to give it up and have to wait a full year for the next opportunity. 

One thing that makes it easier is that the Plains severe weather season has been very inactive to date, and is now essentially shutting down for the next 7-10 days - so that could be it for the whole season already anyway. 

I just hope there will be some decent thunderstorm days around here this year. Seems every year while I am out on the Plains people are making fun of me because I miss a big event at home (like last year’s Doylestown supercell!)

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Only two cases in Edison today! Woohoo 

We might have had yet another long term care debacle in our township. Yesterday about 40% of all of Burlington County newly confirmed cases were in Mount Laurel.

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42 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

We might have had yet another long term care debacle in our township. Yesterday about 40% of all of Burlington County newly confirmed cases were in Mount Laurel.

Yeah the Menlo Park nursing home in Edison was hit hard. With all the successful outcomes of this pandemic, the nursing home protection was a complete failure!

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4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah the Menlo Park nursing home in Edison was hit hard. With all the successful outcomes of this pandemic, the nursing home protection was a complete failure!

It was an abysmal failure.

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18 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Only two cases in Edison today! Woohoo 

My brother in law's parents live in Edison.  Both in mid-70s and both have anti bodies.  They both never got sick.  Pretty awesome for them.  His mom was a nurse and retired in March since they wanted to move her from a rehab center to front lines.  His father works as a supervisor at a Shoprite distribution center. 

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47 minutes ago, frankdp23 said:

My brother in law's parents live in Edison.  Both in mid-70s and both have anti bodies.  They both never got sick.  Pretty awesome for them.  His mom was a nurse and retired in March since they wanted to move her from a rehab center to front lines.  His father works as a supervisor at a Shoprite distribution center. 

Great news! Edison was hit hard with positive cases, I believe they are close to 2k now. Here in Metuchen (the hole of the doughnut in Edison) we have only have 124. Which is low IMO, for the amount of people that commute to the city.

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

I went for my antibodies test last week and my results came back negative. 

Sorry to hear....where did you get the test? my family is looking forward to getting the test - hoping for a positive test!  we all had it back in Feb when the wife and I were sick...plus I was actually in Kirkland WA and SEATAC airport on the very day the 1st case landed on the coast

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2 minutes ago, chescopawxman said:

Sorry to hear....where did you get the test? my family is looking forward to getting the test - hoping for a positive test!  we all had it back in Feb when the wife and I were sick...plus I was actually in Kirkland WA and SEATAC airport on the very day the 1st case landed on the coast

Part of me wanted to be positive just for the peace of mind that I could beat it. Immunity and etc seems completely debatable depending on who you listen to. 
 

I went to a clinic in North Edison on Oak Tree rd. It was completely covered and safe. 

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Any good news always seems to have a caveat.

The latest numbers include 54 new deaths and 703 new cases reported in the last 24 hours. Though officials cautioned that those numbers may be skewed by lags in reporting from the extended Memorial Day weekend, the downward trend in new cases in deaths has continued over the last few weeks

“We think these numbers are distorted by the holiday weekend," Murphy said. "Even with that being said, the trends continue very meaningfully in the right direction.”

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Holiday weekend or not, the trends are heading in a great direction for NJ. I don't see why we can't start going into Phase 2 this week.

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47 minutes ago, ACwx said:

Holiday weekend or not, the trends are heading in a great direction for NJ. I don't see why we can't start going into Phase 2 this week.

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Plus it is coupled with increased testing.  Yesterday was the first day I recall the governor stating the spot test positivity rate was <10%.

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22 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Part of me wanted to be positive just for the peace of mind that I could beat it. Immunity and etc seems completely debatable depending on who you listen to. 
 

I went to a clinic in North Edison on Oak Tree rd. It was completely covered and safe. 

It was my thought that my exposure working in Wegmans thru March (and having a cough, allergies it was) , but my test came back negative too. 

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31 minutes ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Plus it is coupled with increased testing.  Yesterday was the first day I recall the governor stating the spot test positivity rate was <10%.

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Exactly right (and I think an extra 1 was accidentally added in front of the other digits there lol). 

From the gov's briefing yesterday: 5% spot positivity as of the 22nd, and he keeps stressing in his briefings how important he believes this particular metric is.

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5 hours ago, Rainshadow5.8 said:

Sadly they could use this down south. 

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California looks great. But they are locked down tight. One fifth of the nation's economy is there. At least Elon Musk told them to go stick it.

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